Thread by @DanAlexander21

1/ The New York Times #TrumpTaxReturns story is terrific. I had about a million thoughts as I was reading though. I'll be annotating those here, in this thread, for the next few hours. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

2/ Story starts with this bombshell, that Trump paid just $750 in taxes in 2016 and another $750 in 2017. Shocking numbers for someone who we estimate is worth $2.5B. (Yes, you can still be really rich and disclose a tiny income or even huge losses. More on his net worth later.)

3/ Then we get to this part about the current state of his business, which highlights the amount of debt that Trump has coming due. We actually already know a lot about his debt -- far more than most people who follow the news might think. Let's pause here and dig into it.

4/ We'll start at Trump's old home, Trump Tower, where he owes $100M. This document shows that it has a $100M loan against it, with a 4.2% interest rate, due 9/6/2022. Trump, as you can see, has not paid down a dime of the principal.

5/ Then we'll go to 40 Wall Street, where he owes $139M, split into several chunks. You can see the interest rate on all are 3.665%, and all of those come due on 7/6/25. Total debt accounted for so far: $239M million.

6/ We'll next look at 1290 Ave. of the Americas, in which Trump owns a 30% interest alongside publicly traded Vornado. VNO discloses that there's $950M of debt against it in doc below. Due in Nov 2022. Trump's 30% share then equals $285M. Total debt accounted for so far: $524M.

7/ Then we'll consider 555 California St., in which Trump also owns a 30% interest alongside Vornado. VNO discloses there's $543M against that building, with a 5.1% interest rate, due Sep 2021. Trump's 30% share is then 0.3 * 543 = $163M. Total debt accounted for so far: $687M.

8/ Now let's look at Doral, Trump's golf resort in Miami. It has 2 mortgages against it, totaling $125M. Both mature in 2023 and have variable interest rates. You can see the first pages of the mortgages, with the amounts circled, here. Total debt accounted for so far: $812M

9/ There's also a loan against the DC hotel. The mortgage, which you can see below, lists it at $170M. The NYT reports that the balance is $160M. Trump may have paid down some principal here. We'll use the NYT figure for our tally. Total debt accounted for so far: $972M.

10/ In New York, Trump owes a combined of $20M against a two smaller properties, Trump Plaza ($13.2M) and Trump International Hotel & Tower ($6.5M). Total debt accounted for so far: $992M

11/ At Trump Park Ave, where Ivanka and Jared used to live (in a condo owned by Donald), there's another loan, which was at $15.3M in 2010, according to the doc below. Trump has been paying that one down. Probably closer to $10M now. Total debt accounted for so far: $1 billion.

12/ In Chicago, Trump lists two loans on his financial disclosure report. One for $25-50M and one for $50M+. These are complex liabilities that I won't go too much into right now, but that's another $75M+ in debt. Total debt accounted for so far: $1.1 billion.

13/ Trump has other small loans against a golf club in DC, one in New Jersey and a couple of mansions. Those add up to about another $35M or so in additional debt. The total accounted for still rounds to $1.1 billion. A lot of that, as the NYT story says, is coming due soon.

14/ Going to to take a break to write a story. I'll be back when I'm done, with a LOT more to say about this great reporting from the New York Times. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

15/ And... we're back. 14 hours and a whole lot of math later, Donald Trump is still a billionaire, which makes the $750 tax payment even more scandalous. Lots more to dive into. forbes.com/sites/danalexa…

16/ Okay, we've made it to the 3rd paragraph of the Times story. Let's keep moving. This next line, about the possibility that an adverse ruling could cost Trump $100M, is a huge scoop. It's also exactly the sort of reason why everyone was so eager to see Trump's tax documents.

17/ We peg Trump's cash pile at an estimated $160M. A $100M hit would be absolutely devastating. Also, remember the other $100M that Trump was supposedly thinking of putting into his campaign? Seems even more far-fetched now. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

18/ A key point that the Times says explicitly: Tax returns don't tell you how rich someone is. Let's dig in a little deeper on this one.

19/ Figuring out Trump's net worth is just a big math equation. You add up the assets and then you subtract the debt. Since we've already spent a lot of time on the debt, let's look closer at the assets. In order to value them, you want to know their net operating income.

20/ Here's where you'll see a big discrepancy from the NYT story. Taxable income takes into account a lot of financial gimmicks. Operating income cuts through that and focuses on the profitability of the actual businesses.

21/ We'll start, again, inside Trump Tower. In 2019, it produced a net operating income of $13.3 million, as you can see on the document below.

22/ At 555 California Street, Trump's partner Vornado disclosed 2019 net operating income of $60 million for its 70% share. Trump's 30% then works out to $25.6 million. Total operating profit so far: $38.9 million.

23/ A document connected to the debt on 1290 Avenue of the Americas, where Trump also owns a 30% stake alongside Vornado, lists net operating income of $96M. So Trump's cut of that would be $28.7M. Total operating profit so far: $67.6M.

24/ 40 Wall Street, a skyscraper the president controls in downtown Manhattan, produced net operating income of $18.1 million in 2019, as you can see here. Total operating profit so far: $85.7M.

25/ A spokesperson for the Trump Organization told me in September 2019 that 6 East 57th Street, formerly known as Niketown, generated $10.7M of profit annually. Total tally so far: $96.4M.

26/ Trump Plaza, a property the president controls on Third Avenue in New York City, turned an operating profit of $1.7 million in 2019, as you can see here. Total now at $98.1M.

The president has leased the garage, restaurant space, and antennas at Trump International Hotel & Tower in Columbus Circle, on the southwest corner of Central Park, for a while now. That produced net operating income of $600,000 in 2019. Total tally so far: $98.7M.

28/ Trump has a handful of other properties, where NYC estimates net operating income. That includes the commercial spaces in Trump World Tower ($1M), Trump Parc ($600K), Trump Parc East ($900K) and Trump Park Avenue (~$2.4M). Brings tally to $103.6M

29/ Some of those buildings also include luxury apartments that Trump still owns. That's the case at Trump Park Avenue (17 units), Trump Parc East (12), Trump World Tower (1) Trump Int'l H&T (1), Trump Plaza (2). We'll come back to the Trump Tower penthouse.

30/ If you add up the value of all of those buildings, before subtracting debt, you get an estimated $2.3 billion. So that's a big chunk of the president's assets.

31/ But there's more, in Vegas, Chicago, DC, Miami, Palm Beach, and so on. I'll spare you the details on each one of those assets. But if you want to review the final numbers, you can see them here: forbes.com/sites/danalexa….

32/ Back to the Times story, which we've still only just begun. But first, a break. Heading on CNN to talk about Trump's money around 2ish. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

33/ This little detail, that expenses suddenly and inexplicably shot up at Trump's Bedminster golf club in 2017, stands out. Reminds me of the sort of bizarre accounting I found when examining the Eric Trump Foundation. Eric Trump, of course, is now running his dad's golf empire.

34/ This bit lot captures a lot of what the Times story does so well. It takes things that we already knew -- in this case, that Mar-a-Lago was thriving thanks to the presidency -- and puts specific numbers on it. The boost provided the president an extra $5 million a year.

35/ Trump recognized the money was political: “The manager told me recently, he said, ‘Boy, it is actually the best year we’ve ever had at Mar-a-Lago.’ And I was looking at the numbers. I said, ‘What do you attribute this to?’ He said, ‘The campaign.’”

36 / One of the most fascinating details in the entire story: Trump put $213M into his Doral golf resort, after spending $150M to purchase it. Trump has long bragged about investing $250M into renovations there. But industry experts were skeptical that it was anywhere close.

37/ The $213M sum is, of course, less than the $250M Trump claimed, but it's still an amazing amount of money. It suggests that Trump put a total of $363M into the property. What an awful investment. At Forbes, we now value Doral at $153M. So that's $210M down the drain.

38/ It's worth emphasizing that despite the political events at Doral, the presidency hasn't helped Trump's business overall. You can see on these documents that operating profits fell from $12.4M to $4.3M the first year he was in office. Revenues dropped from $88M to $75M.

39/ The struggles at Doral go hand in hand with the troubles at the Trump hotel in Washington, D.C. The Times reports that the president declared tax losses of $55.5 million there from the time it opened in 2016 to the end of 2018.

40/ We already knew that both Doral and the Trump hotel in D.C. have been struggling. This excerpt from my book makes it clear those properties are money pits. The tax documents confirm that reporting, and add more specifics. forbes.com/sites/danalexa…

41/ Not every part of Trump's business is bleeding money. The Times notes that his 30% interests in 1290 Avenue of the Americas and 555 California Street have done quite well. My colleague @ChaseWithorn detailed that in this story from early 2019. forbes.com/sites/danalexa…

42/ The most revealing parts of the story are the sections called "The 20 Percent Solution," "The Art of the Write-Off" and "The $72.9 Million Maneuver," which detail elaborate ways that Trump reduced his tax bills.

43/ Tweets won't do them justice. Check them out, and the rest of the story, here: nytimes.com/interactive/20….

And if you're interested in digging more deeply into Trump's finances, please pick up my new book, "White House, Inc." penguinrandomhouse.com/books/623950/w…

(End of thread.)