I first heard Lauren Taylor (Impactive Co-founder) at Sohn Conference in 2019.
ESG has most certainly become one of the prominent narratives in recent years, and it's good to listen to someone who talks so passionately about it
2/ Impactive focuses on quality, valuation, time, and activism. Find businesses where time is your friend.
3/ A study showed activist situations typically settle two years out. So it's just better to avoid the battle and cut to the chase by not having adversarial relationship with management.
4/ "...the more surprises the market gets, the lower your multiple will be."
Owning your narrative, convincing the street, and then finally executing to live up to your narrative has to become a primary responsibility of a public market CEO by now.
5/ Lauren is not a fan of dual class structure, and that's totally understandable.
But as a shareholder, this also reminds me of the following Zuck quote, "If I didn’t have complete control of Facebook, I would have been fired."
He's right. No perfect answer here I guess.
6/ What does a pristine, healthy board look like?
Have a lot of cognitive diversity. Fully agreed.
7/ Although there can be tensions in some cases/businesses, I do agree in most cases ESG and long-term shareholders are not at odds, if anything they are companions.
@IntrinsicInv recently wrote a very thoughtful piece on this.
8/ Great example how Impactive worked with to unlock value.
9/ Kind of courageous for Patrick to ask whether there is a dark side to D&I focus.
During some one-on-one conversations, some friends acknowledged that there might be unintended consequences to this, but like Lauren, they wouldn't focus too much on that given the greater good.
10/ My personal opinion is D&I needs to be de-politicized which it unfortunately currently is.
Acknowledging concerns enhance understanding of the other side. Nuance is an underrated tool.
We all would love overnight progress, but it almost never happens.
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."