Sam Cranny-Evans Profile picture
Sep 28, 2020 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
A quarterly reminder that tracking and engaging UAVs is not a simple or easy task. These videos release by an Azeri YouTube outlet show what are supposedly Baryaktar TB2 strikes against Armenia:
A lot of the targets shown are short range air defence assets, notionally designed to protect a forces against low flying aircraft and helos. Some limited ability to engage missiles could be present too.
Why does this keep happening? Drones being used to smash air defences and other vehicles seemingly at will? Well, first off, locating and tracking UAVs is hard. They can be built largely from composites or plastic as opposed to metals like large aircraft.
They don’t have to fly as fast, or keep a human in the air so this is acceptable. But, it means they have a reduced radar cross section, and even larger UAVs like the TB2 could be hard to locate and identify using radar alone.
It’s widely accepted that radar should be paired with an optical means of locating and engaging UAVs. However, they often have a low thermal signature, which means advanced thermals may not pick them up against the background air temperature.
A third method for detection is ELINT, which requires some good pervasive EW. Not always available and often scarce, these resources are needed for lots of things. Arguably air defence should be a high priority, but there are many threats to handle.
A final method of detection is sound, and Telegram reports from Russian journos in Syria indicate the TB2 can certainly be heard, but this just acts as an indication that something is there.
Targeting may be further complicated by tactics; apparently TB2s were used in pairs in Syria, one to designate and one to engage. Of locating and tracking is difficult, so is target prioritisation. The attacking drone could also be a few km away, adding further challenges.
There are many things to consider as always. Warfare isn’t straightforward. But hopefully this will give some insights into the current UAV paradigm. It doesn’t mean that the GBAD units being hit are poor, or that the vehicles themselves are not fit for purpose.
It means that air defence is still an imperfect solution to a very difficult situation. It has never been perfect, and never exhibited a high success rate in combat.
Ultimately, it is partly about forcing your enemy to
fight differently, in the hope that they might surrender the initiative by doing so. And partly about protecting your troops among other things. There are few if any systems that offer a complete solution to UAVs.
An effective defence would need multiple sensors, multiple effectors, and if possible - your own tanks on the enemy’s airfields.

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More from @Sam_Cranny

Jan 8
Hello! Good morning. If your timeline is like mine, you might be seeing the Telegram post from the image below today.

Why? Well, in short, the poster claims to have seen intercepted Russian FPV footage that shows the drone using AI for terminal guidance. Image
He states that the operator flies the drone to the area and selects the target with AI assistance. It then flies into the target. This isn't the first use of AI in this application, there is good evidence that Lancet can do it too. The new Iz-53 variant is more autonomous. Image
The original poster (OP), later said he had watched two more videos.

The Russians have been talking about this for a while. The Gadfly reportedly carried this capability in August 23: #AI vk.com/wall-35660695_…
Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 19, 2023
Hello! How are you? I'm good, thanks for asking. It's nearly Christmas and if you're winding down like me, you might enjoy a little technical thread on the T-90M.

Images are from @RecoMonkey, those guys do good work! The source? My book (JAFV21), and some desk research. Image
T-90M is the most technically capable tank in Russian service. It started life in 1999 as a way to improve on the T-90. It had entered trials by 2017 (rapid) and in 2018 there was talk of orders and deliveries. Vedomosti reported 160 T-90Ms under contract in 2020.
10 rebuilds, 50 T-90A conversions, and the rest presumably new builds. First deliveries followed later that year to the Taman Guards Div, part of the 1st Guards Tank Army. This image shows that fateful day. Image
Read 22 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
Hello again, it’s Friday, how has your week been? Would you like to know more about the Trophy active protection system (APS)? Awesome, have a glance at the following. It's used by the IDF and others to protect armoured vehicles from anti-tank weapons like RPGs and ATGMs. Image
If you’re not keen on reading, the BLUF is that Trophy is a good system and well-proven, but it is not and never was perfect. Any losses we see are also half the picture and should not lead to knee jerk reactions or analysis on Trophy’s suitability.
Development:
The IDF started looking at Trophy in 1987, it was a team effort led by the Israeli MoD, its Directorate of Research and Development, Rafael, and Elta. They weren’t the first, the Soviets had developed the Drozd APS in the late 70s, and even sent some to Afghanistan. Image
Read 25 tweets
Nov 2, 2023
Hello! How are you? Hope you’re doing ok.
I’ve built a thread to look at Namer, a heavy armoured personnel carrier (APC) that is in service with the IDF. You might have heard of it recently as 11 IDF personnel were reportedly killed in one when an ATGM hit their vehicle. Image
I have some thoughts on this at the end. If you don’t want to read that far; these things can happen to even the best-protected vehicles, a lot depends on the munition that hit it, and what was inside the vehicle.
Development: Maj Gen Tal, who oversaw development of the Merkava, decided that a heavy APC was needed in the 1980s, he had observed during Israel’s wars that infantry needed more protection than tanks. Interesting, right? Image
Read 21 tweets
Dec 1, 2022
These are some images of Ukrainian BTR-4s from back in March. I came across them doing some research on wheeled mobility and thought I would use them to illustrate some elements of terramechanics.
In 2000 Ogorkiewicz wrote about the Vehicle Cone Limiting Index, a measure developed in the UK at the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency (DERA) to determine the go/no-go strength of a soil for wheeled AFVs of certain weights.
The VCLI is used with the cone index of the soil type in question to indicate whether a vehicle can pass it. Different soils have different CIs, wet soils like clay are weaker than hard soils low in moisture and will allow heavier vehicles to pass.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 28, 2022
Lots of good stuff coming from the @RUSI_org Land Warfare Conference today a few things following:

Oleksandr Danylyuk: The west and Russia made some assessments that were poor.

Russia's military demonstrations throughout 21 were designed to get Ukraine to accept Russia's view
The Russians thought this had worked and the West believed Russia would succeed in a matter of days.

Despite Western aid, it was Ukrainian heavy weapons that created the initial Russian reverses.

Failure to decapitate Ukr's political and mil control meant its goals failed.
Even after sanctions, Russia is in a much better position than Ukraine. But Ukr's successes have created misconceptions about Ru's capabilities and delayed heavy weapon deliveries.

Ukr had 200 Smerch and Uragan on 24th Feb, inability to replenish ammo has degraded their power.
Read 34 tweets

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