“The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging.”
– SPI-B paper, 22 March 2020. 👇
😱My paper for @axiombtc surveys the data and makes the argument that because politicians cannot face up to sufficiently cutting spending, we face currency collapse:
🇬🇧In negotiating this ‘reset’ in UK-EU relations, Keir Starmer has done exactly what he always intended: sat down on the EU’s side of the table and given them everything they wanted.
❌️This so-called “reset” isn’t diplomacy—it’s surrender. Sold as pragmatism, in reality it is a clear infraction of Britain’s interests and a betrayal of the referendum result.
👎The worst example? SPS alignment. Instead of mutual recognition like the EU-New Zealand deal, Starmer has locked us into the EU’s regulatory framework indefinitely—with no voice and no veto.
Inadequate risk modelling follows as a consequence of the moral hazard implicit in the system.
VAR-based risk models have repeatedly been shown inadequate yet they legitimize under-provisioning for losses, thus increasing risk and inflating profits.
Leverage ratio regulation suffers from the epistemological problem of the social sciences so it is likely to fail.
The accounting provisions of IFRS in relation to mark-to-market and loan losses further promote risk-taking and instability. [I believe this phenomenon has been improved.]
Basel capital adequacy rules failed in the past and will fail again.
Authors: Kevin Dowd, Gordon Kerr, John Butler.
2️⃣Capital-based macroeconomics and the boom-bust cycle
CPI targeting is dangerously misplaced: consumer prices are the final signal at the end of a long production chain.
Monetary fluctuations have material effects on the real structure of prices and capital. Prices become detached from underlying realities such as resource availability, technology and consumer preferences.
Interest rate manipulation by authority discoordinates the economy in time by sending false signals about preferences for saving, borrowing, consumption and investment.
Authors: Jesús Huerta de Soto, Detlev Schlichter, John Butler, Roger Garrison, Kevin Dowd, Mises, Hayek, Steve Horwitz.
🥀 What’s happening is the slow collapse of the post war social democratic system under the weight of state intervention, tax, debt and currency debasement.