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Graham Neary Profile picture
@GrahamNeary
Sep 28, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Today, an RTE article makes a speculative argument that C19 is definitely worse than a bad flu, despite acknowledging fewer death notices from March to May 2020 than "either of the severe flu seasons in December–February in 2017/18 and 2016/17".

rte.ie/brainstorm/202…
Their argument is based on deaths from March to April 2020 being seasonally higher than average.

But then how to take account of Jan and Feb 2020 being lower than average?

Being simple-minded, I simply added up all deaths from January to May.

Result: the 2020 total is normal.
Here's the thread showing how I calculated this:

Don't forget that many unnecessary deaths (hundreds) were already caused this year by the emptying of hospitals during lockdown.

So we can go further than saying that winter flu season is often more dangerous than C19.

It's also more dangerous than C19 plus empty hospitals.

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More from @GrahamNeary

Graham Neary Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
I've been learning from the personal finance experts at @ynab @RamseyShow @moneyguyshow in recent months.

These are the most important things I've learned, and which I apply in my day-to-day routine.

If everyone did these things, their lifestyles would be transformed:
1) assign every dollar (or pound, or euro) a specific job. Like a person, if money is left idle, it will get up to no good.

Do this every month with a written budget, preferably using an app that links to your bank accounts so that your transactions automatically show up there.
2) plan for your major expenses such as cars, holidays, and household improvements.

Putting cash aside for them every single month means not having to go into debt for them later (or liquidating your long-term investments, which is almost as bad).
Read 8 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
Jan 30, 2023
To my Irish followers:

FIVE THINGS I WOULD CHANGE ABOUT THE TAXATION OF INVESTMENTS IN IRELAND

Internationally, Ireland is thought of a business-friendly, low-tax environment.

This is true for businesses and funds who choose to operate or domicile themselves here.
However, it is certainly not true for individual investors living in Ireland, who face a tax code that is in bad need of reform.

Here are five things I would change immediately.
1. Taxation of ETFs and other funds

Ireland is known as a great country in which to domicile funds.

But ironically, the government applies a special punitive tax rate of 41% ("exit tax") to Irish people who buy funds.

This tax is applied regardless of your income tax band.
Read 22 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
Oct 7, 2022
The incoming auto-enrolment system in Ireland sounds horrible:

- a quasi-mandatory system, reducing take-home pay even more for employees.
- even higher costs for employers.
- a huge new govt subsidy for pensions (how can they afford to do this but not to cut income tax?)

1/5
- govt subsidies are applied equally regardless of tax bracket, so a pension becomes another form of income redistribution.
- money gets locked up in the system for 40+ years.
- new central processing authority to administer it, creating more unnecessary civil servant jobs.

2/5
- the existing PRSI deduction was already supposed to provide a decent pension. But there will be no change to PRSI.
- there will only be FOUR investment funds to choose from, for the entire country! An amazing lack of choice. Maybe let people invest their own money?

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
Sep 12, 2022
Ireland's "Commission on Taxation and Welfare" has triggered outrage with alleged proposals to reduce inheritance tax relief, raise diesel duty, etc.

As with NPHET, the likely purpose of COTW is to float bad ideas, so that government can see which ones are viable.

A short🧵.
Media reports have disclosed the alleged proposals from COTW, but have said almost nothing about who or what COTW is. The ordinary reader is left wondering who to blame for all of the bad ideas.

This is where I come in with a relevant link and a summary.

gov.ie/en/publication…
Out of 13 members, there is only one entrepreneur.

There is one person from the lobby group representing large businesses.

There are two tax advisors (sadly, it is not in the interests of those who provide tax advice for taxes to be simplified).

And the other nine members?
Read 5 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
Jun 8, 2022
Hotel prices in Dublin are causing widespread shock and anger.

So let's take a look at some of the Dublin hotels that have been leased by the State and made unavailable for private bookings.

Here's a list.

1. Citywest: 756 rooms, 2,000 beds.
2. Travelodge Townsend Street: 393 beds.

The second-biggest hotel in the city centre, it is also the newest hotel and cost an estimated €100 million to build. Now leased by the State:
3. Holiday Inn Express Dublin Airport, 214 beds.

4. Crowne Plaza Dublin Airport, 209 beds.

5. Travelodge Dublin Airport, 125 beds.

6. Airport Manor Hotel, 80 beds.

600 airport beds taken off the market. And people are shocked that prices at airport hotels have increased!
Read 6 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
Jun 2, 2022
🚨 Latest CSO data 🚨

We can now calculate Ireland's death rates for every age group and for every year up to and including 2021, with the help of freshly released CSO figures and the CSO's population estimates.

I've done this. Some interesting results:

👇👇👇
Firstly, Covid-19 coincided with Ireland's 85+ population achieving their lowest ever death rates in each of the past two years.

An amazing result in the circumstances: Image
The results are only slightly less positive for the grey-haired 65-84 cohort.

Three out of the four categories here had a small increase in 2021 over the prior year.

But 2021 was still safer for every category in this cohort compared to 2018: Image
Read 7 tweets

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