Kareem Carr, Statistics Person Profile picture
Sep 28, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
One of my most strongly held political beliefs is experts shouldn't rule over non-experts without their consent. I won't try to define for you who exactly the "experts" are because in my world it doesn't matter. Everybody can make that decision for themselves.
Depending on how we define "expert", the intelligent shouldn't rule over the unintelligent. Academics shouldn't rule over non-academics. Intellectuals shouldn't rule over non-intellectuals. The old and wise shouldn't rule over the young and foolish. I mean all of these things.
I believe in expertise without authority. For this reason, I don't really want to be associated with forcing people to wear masks. I'd prefer people do it because they trust health experts and if they don't, it's something between them and the governments which they elected.
I don't want the fact that me and my academic community believe something to become yet another justification for state coercion. As a black man, I'm suspicious of coercive power.
In my ideal world, scientific knowledge empowers individuals to get more of what what they want on their own terms without taking away from others.
Scientific knowledge shouldn't be about putting people in a prison made of other people's reasons which they don't agree with, don't understand, and that say there's only one best choice for everyone.
So in conclusion, I believe that people have a right to autonomy and self-determination. I believe people have the right to be "stupid" and to work on being smarter at their own pace.
Addendum: I don't think my views map well to current politics. It's a bit like what libertarians mean by "liberty" if they were less obsessed with wealth in the form of money and property and defined wealth instead as virtue, self-actualization and strong relationships.
Left and right both capture some of it. The right recognizes the freedom to be what others consider "stupid". The left recognizes the freedom to self-determination outside of the freedom to do whatever you want with property.
Addendum II: No condemnation is either implied or intended concerning any country or any parties in their response to the pandemic. I believe in your autonomy so I'm not trying to tell you what to do. This thread is an ABSTRACT discussion of my personal relationship to politics.

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More from @kareem_carr

Apr 25
If you think about how statistics works it’s extremely obvious why a model built on purely statistical patterns would “hallucinate”. Explanation in next tweet. Image
Very simply, statistics is about taking two points you know exist and drawing a line between them, basically completing patterns.

Sometimes that middle point is something that exists in the physical world, sometimes it’s something that could potentially exist, but doesn’t. Image
Imagine an algorithm that could predict what a couple’s kids might look like. How’s the algorithm supposed to know if one of those kids it predicted actually exists or not?

The child’s existence has no logical relationship to the genomics data the algorithm has available.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
"Why are US taxpayers funding Harvard?"

These grants aren't charity. They're highly competitive contracts where the US government determines Harvard is the best institution for conducting specific research, and then pays Harvard for services rendered to US taxpayers.
Each grant represents a fair contract that a group at Harvard won after being in competition with hundreds or even thousands of other groups. These are not handouts.
The US government pays Harvard and other universities to provide answers to questions that aren't directly profitable in themselves, but which provide a foundation for private sector innovation, and help maintain American dominance over geopolitical rivals like China.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 6
As a someone who translates ideas into math for a living, I noticed something weird about the tariff formula that I haven't seen anybody else talk about. 🧵 Image
The formula defines the tariff rate as exactly the percent you need to charge on imports to make up for the trade deficit. Basically,

trade deficit = tariff rate x imports

It's constructed as if tariffs are a kind of compensation for trade deficits but this raises a question.
If tariffs are something foreign countries owe to the American people for having a trade deficit, then forcing US businesses to make up for the difference, by paying extra money to the US government, is kind of a weird solution.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 1
Whenever I see students with good grades but lots of college rejections, my first thought is a bad personal essay. As predicted, this guy's essay was kind of a disaster.

Since I did get into Harvard, I'll give my two cents on the essay:
Maybe this will help some people. Here's the essay: Image
Image
Red flag 1:
A guy pausing his rapidly growing $30M business for 4 years to attend college makes zero financial and professional sense.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 8
In honor of international women's day, let's take a moment to remember the most famous statistician in history.

You've definitely heard of her, but you probably have no idea she was a statistician.

It's Florence Nightingale. Image
Image
Nightingale was first female member of the Royal Statistical Society and a pioneer in using statistical analysis to guide medical decisions and public health policy.
Florence Nightingale's most famous statistical analysis was her investigation into the mortality rates of soldiers during the Crimean War. She demonstrated that the majority of deaths among soldiers were due to preventable diseases rather than battlefield injuries! Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
Took one for the team and made a histogram of the Elon social security data. Not sure why his data scientists are just giving him raw tables like that. Image
Image
It’s also weird that they keep tweeting out these extremely strong claims without taking a few days to do some basic follow up work.
It doesn’t come off like they even:
- plotted the data
- talked to any of the data collectors
- considered any alternative explanations
Read 6 tweets

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