Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Michael McDonald Profile picture
@ElectProject
Sep 29, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Just when pundits were rushing to explain why Biden was doing poorly in PA, we suddenly get two polls with big leads. Now the PA poll averages look good for him
A mathematician friend tells a story of how he gave a lecture to a large audience. He had everyone flip a coin, and then ask their neighbors what they got. The audience members were then asked to report any strange patterns. One group excited said they had a cluster all heads...
...the same goes with state polling. With so many polls, it is possible that by chance alone we'll see an odd sequence of random draws. Are the two PA polls outliers in the same direction? Are the other polls outliers?
Poll averaging helps to a certain extent, but it can fail when by sheer bad luck two or three polls in a row are outliers in the same direction. And since the horserace analysis is time-dependent, pundits have a tendency to over-analyze recent polls if they show "tightening"
So, last week's punditry of "Biden doing poorly in Appalachia, costing him PA" replaced two week's ago punditry that "Biden is doing poorly among FL Hispanics, costing him FL". Who knows where the next set of correlated outliers will be, but I guarantee they will happen

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Michael McDonald

Michael McDonald Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ElectProject

Michael McDonald Profile picture
Aug 30
Mark was kind to provide me with the GA file the AJC obtained for this story. One of the striking things I saw was the rise in "17.5" registrations -- young people who will be 18 by November but are still 17
We should expect younger and more diverse voters to continue to register before Election Day. It happens every election! This is one of the reasons why I've thought polls that sample from voter registration files may be under-estimating Harris by a point
The thousands of GA 17.5 registrants aren't active voters yet -- but they will be. Unless a pollster specifically requests the pending list like the AJC, they won't have them. Even if you did, their identifying information is redacted because they are minors
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Jul 30
After long ramblings and multiple Ingraham prompts Trump finally says why Christians won't have to vote again:

1) He'll "fix the country" with new voting laws
2) People will love "us" (Republicans? He wouldn't be able to run again)
Now there are premises here that are false. Trump says Christians don't vote but religious people -- particularly those who attend church frequently -- have higher turnout rates
The laws: Trump wants voter id (federal and state laws already require it), wants only citizens to vote (ditto: federal and state law restricts voting to citizens, the little noncitizen voting is infrequent clerical errors), vote on paper (states already do this)...
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Sep 18, 2023
National Voter Registration Day is upon us, and so it is time for my annual screed against voter registration
First, we don't need voter registration. North Dakota doesn't have it, you just need id to vote. This is how most developed democracies manage their voter rolls, with the important exception their governments give national id cards to everyone without additional costs
This is why I support a national voter identification card, that the government provides everyone at no cost. usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
Read 8 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
May 16, 2023
Impossible to defeat the front running candidate without criticizing him
DeSantis’s Super-PAC Never Back Down is essentially a grift to take money from one uber-wealthy donor - Bigelow
The next Ocean’s movie idea: a rag tag band of con men steal tens of millions from an unsuspecting billionaire by convincing him a worthless candidate can win
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
May 10, 2023
Appears some of these charges against George Santos are similar to allegations of Herschel Walker redirecting campaign funds to a personal company thedailybeast.com/emails-reveal-…
From the Santos charges of allegations of him redirecting campaign donations to a personal company... Image
In this nexus of corruption is Tina Forte, who ran against AOC. There are false credit card transactions that mysteriously showed up in her campaign. The connection is Santos's campaign treasurer Nancy Marks. Expect to hear more about her motherjones.com/politics/2023/…
Read 7 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
May 3, 2023
I posted updated graphics and statistics for demographic turnout rates calculated from the Current Population Survey to include 2022 electproject.org/election-data/…
(For the election nerds, these turnout rates differ from the Census Bureau tables in that I make a weight adjustment for the 17% of respondents who did not answer the CPS voting and registration supplement, and for vote over-report bias found in all surveys)
The electorate overall had the highest share of non-Hispanic Whites since 2014. Midterm elections tend to see a whiter electorate, although 2018 was a bit of an aberration. I fully expect to see a sizable drop in the White share of the electorate in 2024 compared to 2022 Image
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(