Thread by @PedderSophie

Much confusion over Macron’s Russia policy today, after he meets Tikhanovskaya in Vilnius BUT says “Our vision is that if we want to build a lasting peace on the continent we have to work with Russia.” Has he ditched Putin? Or was this a misreading? @BrunoTertrais @Mij_Europe 1/6

Maybe Macron is just stubborn. No leader likes to admit being wrong. He is masterful at rationalising ex post facto a policy shift as a natural evolution in the face of changing facts. And he is pragmatic, an attribute easy to dismiss as inconsistent (but can be constructive) 2/6

Another way to look at it is that Macron, in domestic matters and foreign, is an adept of “en même temps” cc @pierrehaski. He built En Marche as neither left nor right. The same goes for his dIplomacy. You can call it confused and contradictory. Or opportunistic and adaptable 3/6

In meeting Tikhanovskaya, Macron is having his equivalent of Merkel’s Navalny moment, sending a clear and novel (for him) message to Moscow. And Europeans are, crucially, standing together. But, “at the same time”, he says he won’t break off a dialogue with Russia 4/6

Here is @CBeaune to @TheEconomist. “Ours is a strategy that has to adapt to circumstances. We never said it was an unconditional or irreversible dialogue. The Navalny affair makes it more difficult in the short run. It’s never been a question of U-turns but adaptations.” 5/6

Macron’s “speak to everybody” diplomacy won’t mean cutting off all dialogue with Putin. In the long-run, like it or not in 🇫🇷 +🇪🇺he will keep his Russia bet alive. But in the short-run Macron has indeed shifted, hardened his tone (“Lukashenko must go”) + cooled towards Putin 6/6

Anyway, hope this is helpful. I realise the thread is all about what Paris/Macron is up to, and not the bigger diplomatic picture @BrunoTertrais ;) But as there is a lot of confusion out there, it just seems worth trying to make some sense of it