Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
So a big announcement today about skills shortages - and it’s not the one about to be given by the PM

A red warning light from the official body which looks at skills shortages about the lack of people available for the social care sector gov.uk/government/new…
This is what the Migration Advisory Committee says about care workers and nursing assistants - vital during a pandemic

They warn of “stark consequences of low wages in social care”

All this before the end of free movement at the end of the year
Even though we are about to experience a huge national spike in unemployment, the MAC warns that the social care sector will “struggle to recruit” if wages are not increased “as a matter of urgency”
Looking at this statement closely, the head of the Migration Advisory Council seems to be saying that it shouldn’t automatically to be left to migration to fill key roles

And unemployed Brit people won’t be doing some jobs which will need to be filled by people from overseas
So question for the PM today will be - to what extent does his speech on training provide the answers to the skills shortages which the Migration Advisory Committee today say exist - and mean we need to hire from overseas

(Even as end of free movement makes coming here more £)
Note how the number of people born outside the UK has dropped more sharply than at any point in the last 20 years (the EU born workforce dipped significantly sharply, despite settled status scheme making it easier for them to stay)
Also look at the sectors that rely most at the moment on non-UK born labour

“The transport and communication sector and the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector have the lowest proportion of UK-born in employment.”
Here are conclusions of the MAC
- Unemployment set to reach 12% according to OBR
- Future of labour market and migration “uncertain”
- Gvt relaxed some migration restrictions as result of Covid leading to likely rise in migrants from outside EU
- But end of free movement hits too
Or to put it another way, the conclusion of the MAC is:

The problem filling jobs in key industries is the lack of wages and skills, not a surplus of people from overseas.

Indeed we now need more from overseas in industries vital to cope wire the pandemic

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More from @SamCoatesSky

Sep 14, 2023
Today Tories accused Labour of wanting to make the UK “the dumping ground for many of the millions of illegal migrants that Europe doesn’t want”

This is because Keir Starmer has said again today he wants to negotiate a “returns agreement” with the EU, and the “quid pro quo” would be accepting quotas of migrants from the EU

Earlier in the summer, Rishi Sunak was attempting to negotiate his own returns agreement. Tim Barrow’s negotiation stalled (see @matt_dathan below) - and we don’t know the precise terms - but would almost certainly have involved UK taking a share of EU migration.

Some in the home office came across as less enthusiastic than No10 on this



Image
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In May at the Council of Europe in Reykjavik, Rishi Sunak pushed fellow leaders to discuss a new returns agreement.

However @matt_dathan reported in August the commission was not open to a UK-EU readmissions agreement.

The Times saw notes of a meeting between Bjoern Seibert, von der Leyen’s head of cabinet, and Sir Tim Barrow, Britain’s national security adviser and former ambassador to the EU
@matt_dathan This is Rishi Sunak’s response to Labour’s announcement Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 19, 2023
Bloomberg:

UK debt has risen 40% since the pandemic start, leaving debt now at 100.8% of GDP - and we are paying more to service that debt “than any other advanced economy”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Only Japan has seen a bigger +rise+ in debt, though Japan, US, France and Italy nations have a bigger % debt to GDP Image
Britain has more index linked gilts, so is more exposed now borrowing costs have reached a 15 year high Image
Read 5 tweets
May 6, 2023
This is intriguing. Why is there just 1 Council out of 230 outstanding?

Redcar Council👇🏻 says that they’ve agreed to delay a *third* recount of Longbeck ward until Tuesday morning

According to Teeside Live, Longbeck ward is where CURRENT Cleveland Police and Crime Commissioner… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This story from local journalists about Steve Turner is fascinating

It says Turner’s wife - who is leader of the Conservative group - was involved in selecting him as a candidate in the same word as her

gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-… ImageImage
Turner, a former UKIP councillor, used to work for Tory MPs Jacob Young and Simon Clarke Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 10, 2023
Arriving at the Elysee and Sunak and Macron prepare to talk small boats, VERY worth reading this Commons refresher on multiple cash injections to France so far….

More than £300m in UK to Fr payments since 2014

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
And the success rate of the French?

Stopped 42.5% of people, intercepted 53% of boats
And THIS is very striking

MPs heard from Dan O’Mahoney, director of the Clandestine Channel Threat Command

France does not detain and arrest migrants, and they then go free, he said
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9, 2023
I haven't read it all, but please feel free to highlight the best bits

P1-14 of Portland's How Labour Works
Read 29 tweets
Jan 24, 2023
This exchange between Sky @KamaliMelbourne and minister Chris Philp feels significant

Philp sent out with careful phrases - PM "understood no outstanding tax issues at the time" of appointment.

And didn't know of "discussions"

This doesn't preclude Sunak knowing a fair amount Image
Sunak could have known there was an issue - but was told that it had been concluded with HMrC and judged that it was resolved politically

And "discussions" formulation is so wide - what discussions wasn't he aware of? He wouldn't haven't been aware of the detail of them anyway
And this story remains inconvenient for Sunak

Such was the Sun on Sunday story that Zahawi was flagged over his tax affairs -
so didn't get an honour

Was Sunak aware of that kind of concern?

If not why did Simon Case / the propriety and ethics team not tell him Image
Read 4 tweets

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