This is a nice example of how speed of computation is a function of ALGORITHMS. More efficient algorithms make computation faster. It's not just about hardware (e.g. Moore's law) and in fact we will come to rely more on algorithms to speed things up as we approach physical limits
Leiserson, C E., N C. Thompson, J S. Emer, B C. Kuszmaul, B W. Lampson, D Sanchez, and T B. Schardl. 2020. "There’s plenty of room at the Top: What will drive computer performance after Moore’s law?" Science. vol. 368, no. 6495. pp. eaam9744. [science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…]
There's a field called "codesign", in which software and hardware are optimized together to make certain calculations faster.
Shalf, J., D. Quinlan, and C. Janssen. 2011. "Rethinking Hardware-Software Codesign for Exascale Systems." Computer. vol. 44, no. 11. pp. 22-30. [doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MC.201…]
Micheli, Giovanni De, Rolf Ernst, and Wayne Wolf, ed. 2001. Readings in Hardware/Software Co-Design (Systems on Silicon). Burlington, MA: Morgan Kaufmann.
Krueger, Jens, David Donofrio, John Shalf, Marghoob Mohiyuddin, Samuel Williams, Leonid Oliker, and Franz-Josef Pfreund. 2011. Hardware/software co-design for energy-efficient seismic modeling. Seattle, Washington: ACM.
Most people don't understand that long-term trends in computation are estimated based on general purpose computers, but by moving big homogeneous loads to SPECIAL PURPOSE computers optimized for particular computations, we can speed things up a lot.
Nordhaus, William D. 2007. "Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing." The Journal of Economic History. vol. 67, no. 1. March. pp. 128-159. [econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/home…]
Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2011. "Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing." IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. vol. 33, no. 3. July-September. pp. 46-54. [doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2…]
Koomey, Jonathan, and Samuel Naffziger. 2016. "Energy efficiency of computing: What's next?" In Electronic Design. November 28. pp. [electronicdesign.com/microprocessor…]
For more on approaching physical limits, see the discussion of Feynman's schematic estimate of the efficiency of a three atom transistor, here:
Koomey, Jonathan G., H. Scott Matthews, and Eric Williams. 2013. "Smart Everything: Will Intelligent Systems Reduce Resource Use?" The Annual Review of Environment and Resources. vol. 38, October. pp. 311-343. [arjournals.annualreviews.org/eprint/wjniAGG…]
PS: Researchers at Purdue (the university not the chicken company) in collaboration w/ colleagues at the University of New South Wales and Korea institution of science and technology innovation, have demonstrated a one atom transistor that operates at liquid helium temperatures.
Fuechsle, Martin, Jill A. Miwa, Suddhasatta Mahapatra, Hoon Ryu, Sunhee Lee, Oliver Warschkow, Lloyd C. L. Hollenberg, Gerhard Klimeck, and Michelle Y. Simmons. 2012. "A single-atom transistor." Nat Nanotechnology. vol. 7, no. 4. 04//print. pp. 242-246. [dx.doi.org/10.1038/nnano.…]
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What these people fail to understand is that there IS a popular way to raise taxes: Tax very wealthy people a lot more and enforce the laws so wealthy people don't get away with avoiding taxes they should be paying.
Also get rid of the carried interest deduction and jack up inheritance taxes for estates starting in the hundreds of millions. All this would be VERY popular. It would affect a relatively small number of very wealthy people and would raise hundreds of billions of $ every year.
Armstrong McKay, et al. 2022. "Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points." Science. vol. 377, no. 6611. September 9. pp. eabn7950. [science.org/doi/abs/10.112…]
You weren't listening carefully enough to Kieren Mayer's presentation. Slide 14 shows total life cycle emissions including manufacturing of equipment and discs for three modes of gaming.
The key is that USE PHASE dominates in most cases, so your statement about "massive hardware emissions" doesn't track with reality, although in some use cases embedded emissions can be consequential.
My experience having collaborated with the Playstation folks for years in understanding environmental impacts is that they care very much about getting the numbers right. They show that by funding work that gets published in the peer reviewed literature, among other ways.
Also, many people don't know that lead is still allowed in aviation gasoline, because the FAA thinks "no safe alternative is currently available". faa.gov/news/fact_shee…
With the advent of electrified light planes, though, we now have a safe and superior alternative. cnn.com/travel/article…
Our rebuttal: Masanet, Eric, Arman Shehabi, Nuoa Lei, Harald Vranken, Jonathan Koomey, and Jens Malmodin. 2019. "Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO2 emissions." Nature Climate Change. vol. 9, no. 9. 2019/09/01. pp. 653-654. [doi.org/10.1038/s41558…]
We reproduced the authors' model almost exactly, so we know what they did. We showed that their conclusions made no sense in several ways, but the authors just denied the validity of our valid points in their riposte to our rebuttal.
Setting a coal phase-out date (2030 or sooner for developed countries) is the most important single step most nations can take on climate. Of course it's not the only necessary step, but it's a big one.
This is another example of a critically important constraint on the supply side (it's not just about reducing demand).
Green, Fergus, and Richard Denniss. 2018. "Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case for restrictive supply-side climate policies." Climatic Change. 2018/03/12. [doi.org/10.1007/s10584…]