There are many theoretical reasons bitcoins shouldn't work, but until it stops working, these theories aren't worth much.
There are many theoretical reasons @planb's s2f model shouldn't work, but until it starts making wrong predictions, these theories aren't worth much.
There are many theoretical reasons @planb's s2f model shouldn't work, but until it starts making wrong predictions, these theories aren't worth much.
As an Austrian I was extremely skeptical that this model could work and laughed at it initially. But if you ran this model with pre-2014 data, you can predict 2014-2020 prices with astonishing accuracy. You simply cannot dismiss that with theories for why it shouldn't work.
The more theoretical reasons you have for why the model shouldn't work, the more astonishing is the fact that it continues to work. The intelligent response is to try to understand why it's not failing. The idiot response is to think your theories matter more than reality.
The fact that @100trillionUSD 's model can make reliably accurate predictions about prices is the most serious challenge I have ever seen to Austrian economic methodology. It's no reason for me to dismiss it, but to think harder about what this means.
In my ECO12 course, I focus the last lecture on analyzing this model from an Austrian perspective. Mises says there are no constants in human action & that's what makes economic prediction impossible. Could bitcoin's 21m be the first constant in economics? saifedean.com/product/buyeco…
Mises' dictum that prediction in economics is impossible is not an article of faith, it's borne out by a century of economists FAILING to make correct predictions. Once an economist makes reliably accurate predictions, you need to reconsider and try to understand why.
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