Jed Shugerman Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
A remarkable coincidence in Trump timing of tax refund and going Birther:

2010: Trump received a likely illegal refund of $73M per @nytimes

March 2011: Trump goes all-in Birther.

Was the Obama IRS investigating?
Did Trump go birther to frame it as Obama's partisan retribution?
The @nytimes bombshell on the 2010 tax refund & IRS audit that followed:

"Starting in 2010 he claimed & received a refund totaling $72.9M. The legitimacy of that refund is at the center of the audit battle that he has long been waging, out of public view, with the IRS..." Image
@nytimes documents "square with the way Trump cites, without explanation, an ongoing audit as grounds for refusing to release his tax returns."
E.g.: July on @seanhannity @FoxNews: “They treat me horribly, the IRS, horribly.”

Now obviously Obama's IRS:
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This is the likely timeline:
2010: Trump requests and received likely fraudulent $73M refund.
2010 or early 2011: Obama IRS audits Trump.

March 2011: Trump goes all-in hardcore Birther.
CNN timeline of Trump Birtherism: Image
My theory:
Trump was desperate in the financial crisis, overreached for huge refund in 2010.
Obama IRS started behind-the-scenes audit in 2010.
Trump's 2011 brushback pitch: Frame the audit as retribution.
Maybe it worked.
And in the process, made Trump a white nationalist hero.
And Trump has basically told the world that there are bodies buried in his finances.

Given the possible role of Putin and the Mob, maybe (almost) literally bodies buried there.

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More from @jedshug

Aug 25
🧵 from @jdmortenson on Sai Prakash & Aditya Bamzai is devastating.
It has serious legal implications - and it is actually much worse.
Julian & I have asked questions for years privately & politely.

I regret that it has come to this.
I regret I didn't call them out 4 yrs ago. 1/
2/ I emailed Prakash questions about his use of sources in May 2020, early in Covid, in his article "New Light on the Decision of 1789," while Seila Law was pending.
He never addressed them. Instead, he & @adityabamzai repeated them & added new misuses:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
3/ I sent drafts to Prakash detailing my concerns.
In 2020, I co-organized a conference at Stanford & invited Prakash (Covid pushed to 2022).

He accepted, but when he asked if I would be debating past work, he cancelled w/ no explanation.
It gets worse.
law.stanford.edu/events-archive…
Read 22 tweets
Jul 21
This scare tactic - that the GOP will challenge any new nominee - is meritless nonsense, belied by Speaker Johnson's inability to specify any legal argument.
(See election law experts like @rickhasen in thread)

It tells you the GOP is desperate to keep Biden on the ballot. 1/
“I don’t put any credence into it,” says @RickHasen. “Biden is not the party’s nominee now, and states generally point to the major party’s nominee as the one whose name is on the ballot.”

Hasen is one of the nation's leading experts on election law.
sg.news.yahoo.com/bogus-wing-leg…
@rickhasen More here: Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 15
I've read Judge Cannon's dismissal of the Mar-a-Lago case, ruling Special Counsel Jack Smith's appointment was invalid.

I am shocked but not surprised.

Clearly she was desperate to dismiss the Watergate case US v. Nixon & DC Cir. precedents in order to dismiss this case.
1/
2/ Cannon's decision is mostly statutory interpretation, not con law, ruling Smith's appointment does not have a statutory basis.

She doesn't rule directly on the constitutional issues, but she sneaks them in through "clear statement" rules, a now infamous Roberts Court move.
3/ I acknowledge the statutory basis for Smith's appointment is not textually obvious.
Judge Cannon actually does a good job explaining that the statutes that the DOJ relies on are not clear or leave questions.
But what do judges do when they have such doubts?

Read PRECEDENTS.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 1
Trump v. US thread.
Opinion below.
Bottom line #1: I agree that a Jan 6 trial cannot happen before the election (That was almost certain when the Court took this case)

But a great idea is floating:
Jack Smith can use evidentiary hearings as a mini-trial.
supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf…
2/ The Court remanded the case.
Commentators are overlooking the Court's emphasis on "presumptive immunity," rather than "absolute immunity."
See Chief Justice Roberts's concise summary at p. 6 below.

This presumption still opens a big door for trial court evidentiary hearings. Image
3/ The Court holds "absolute immunity" for "core constitutional powers" (p. 6 above).
But what are those "core" powers?

p. 8: "Congress cannot act on, and courts cannot examine, the President’s actions on subjects within his 'conclusive and preclusive' constitutional authority."
Read 19 tweets
Jun 28
I'll be live-tweeting tonight's debate, to the extent that I can keep up and have the stomach for it.
🧵
1/ I note that Donald Trump has already lost the expectations pre-game, which may (or may not) be a big deal.
politicalwire.com/2024/06/27/mor…
2/ "A @nytimes Siena College poll found 60% of registered voters thought Trump would perform 'very' or 'somewhat' well in tonight’s debate. Only 46% said the same of Biden.
Overall, nearly half of voters anticipated a poor showing for Biden."
Low expectations. Maybe good news?
@nytimes 3/ I'm sorry this matters, but Biden has a frog in his throat, and even when he cleared the frog, his voice is flat and monotone. His answer on inflation is fine substantively, but the vocals are really not good.
His answer was good.
But he sounds weak.
Read 24 tweets
Apr 25
I'm tweeting now the Presidential Immunity argument (on a train to be on @CNN @andersoncooper tonight to talk about my op-ed below...)

Justice Barrett nicely pushed back on Sauer on notion a criminal law needs a clear statement to apply to presidents.
nytimes.com/2024/04/23/opi…
2/ From @RickPildes:
Trump's lawyer Sauer essentially conceded most of the case.
@RickPildes 3/ Barrett picked up on the Special Counsel's argument of the absurdity that crim statutes need a clear statement, if only a tiny number of statutes include (she said only three or so). Surely Congress did not mean for presidents to be broadly immune so generally from crim law.
Read 54 tweets

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