Since McConnell et al are trying to lie about their own position on the ACA and the entire GOP is committed to denying what they're doing, let's take a quick tour down memory lane, shall we?
The ACA passed in 2010 with not a single GOP vote in the senate. Basically unprecedented for major legislation *as Republicans were constantly hammering home.*
They kept saying "This is not bi-partisan; we hate it! We want it gone!"
As soon as it passed, the GOP focused their entire message on repealing the law, and then voted over ***60 times*** to repeal it once they took control of the house.
They also initiated a complete government shutdown to unsuccessfully force the issue.
Meanwhile, various conservative lawyers and Republican Attorneys General started suing to strike down the law in whole or part. Many of these efforts seemed, at the outset, kooky and legally unsound, but they reliably found sympathetic hearings from Republican-appointed judges.
Three cases made it all the way to SCOTUS, and in one of them conservatives won, when all conservative justices were joined by two of the liberals to strike down the law's provisions to essentially force states to expand Medicaid.
In NFIB v Sebelius, argued at the same time, all but one of the court's conservative justices found the law's insurance mandate unconstitutional. It was only saved by Roberts finding it constitutional under the taxing authority. A very near miss.
Then 3 years later another case comes before SCOTUS seeking to cripple a key provision that allows subsidies in a number of state insurance exchanges. When first introduced, the lawsuit is largely dimissed as nutty, but lo and behold, conservative judges actually cotton to it!
Again, the *majority of the court's conservatives" including the one Judge Barrett explicitly cites as her legal inspiration, Scalia, says the this vital part of the ACA should be thrown out. But Roberts and Kennedy join the liberals to uphold it.
Then Republicans get control of both houses of congress in 2017, along with the WH, and the *very first thing they do* is attempt to repeal the ACA. They make a big concerted legislative effort that flames out; people think repeal efforts are dead. But not so! They're committed!
So a few months later they come back at it again, pass it in the house and come a vote shy in the Senate, thanks to Murkowski, Collins and McCain's infamous thumbs down. Are conservatives done trying to kill this thing yet?
Of course not! They strip the insurance mandate penalty in their big tax cut bill, and then Republican AG's use that to file in court with a *FACIALLY LUDICROUS ARGUMENT* that the absence of a mandate tax penalty means the entire law must be scrapped. All of it!
Not only that! The DOJ joins the suit! Says, yes, please, we need to destroy this entire law right now because there is now a zero $ tax penalty. (What, you ask, is the harm if the tax is $0? Don't worry your pretty little head!)
When this suit is first introduced, a familiar pattern: legal experts across the spectrum saying it's laughably bad, and yet, guess what!? A GOP-appointed federal judge likes the argument and strikes down the law. Surpise!
Then two GOP-appointed judges in the 5th circuit fail to reverse the district court ruling - despite the fact it's utterly nuts and lawless - so that it is now teed up for... The Supreme Court.
And now there's a Republican judge, who's been vetted thoroughly by the Federalist Society, who clerked for Scalia and says he's a model for her own method of judicial reasoning. Who is on the record criticizing Roberts in NFIB for stretching to make the law workable.
"But how dare you say this woman who we absolutely are ecstatic about would strike down the ACA?! What a preposterous notion?!"
Like the last ten years haven't happened! Like they haven't tried to kill the thing over and over and over and over again.
I don't know, ultimately, how ACB might rule on this case, mostly because as @RameshPonnuru and @jadler1969 rightly point out, it's a garbage case that shouldn't prevail. But the current GOP posture, to piss on us and tell us it's raining, is wildly insulting.
The GOP wants to destroy the ACA. This is not a secret.
Democrats want to preserve and expand it.
No matter how much the GOP tries to have its cake and eat it too - to gut the law while claiming they're not -- Americans aren't actually that stupid.
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It's now been 3 months since The Free Press published a first-person whistleblower account of systematic mistreatment in a MO gender clinic. They also published a reported story in which one (1) mother of a patient went on the record to object to her child's treatment.
Meanwhile, multiple other outlets have conducted dozens and dozens of interviews with parents, employees, and patients and found no corroboration for the very disconcerting and specific allegations in the first report.
Many people approvingly cited the first report and I'm kinda wondering at what point we can draw some conclusions about this entire episode. I guess it's possible that there's been a huge cover-up of flagrant and systemic deception and mistreatment at the clinic but...
Last night I talked about the East Palestine, OH train derailment and what it shows about the fundamental contradiction at the heart of modern conservatism.
Basically, the MAGA-dominated right these days is more and more dependent on a specific demographic: white working class voters outside major metro areas. Voters like those in East Palestine. And those voters have very real issues and struggle they are facing.
In the case of East Palestine, it's a wildly profitable railroad company responsible for a massive chemical explosion in their town. But the real question is: what do you want to do about it? And here modern MAGA-ism has very very little to say.
CARES + ARP was the single biggest infusion of cash into working and poor people's household balance sheets in...history basically. That money has now been spent down and this is the result.
But there's also a catch 22 to it all. Which is that people - understandably! - hate inflation and any continuation of fiscal support at that scale in these conditions would have been obviously inflationary.
That said I think there's often a lag between fundamentals and sentiment (and polarization is doing a TON of work as well). If we avoid recession, inflation comes down and wages remain strong, you would expect these numbers to improve.
Stipulating I'm not saying anything new, nor have any special expertise, there's a very weird dynamic with the Fed right now. It's clear they're not just looking at the price level, as is their mandate, but rather Wall St / and labor markets.
If you're just looking at the price level, things are very encouraging! Instead they're viewing the stock market and unemployment rates as proxies, and, particularly with regards to the former, have locked themselves into a weird battle of wills with investors.
So you get this weird thing where cool CPI prints --> buoyed markets --> Fed feeling the need to crack down and speak and act even more hawkishly. It's a weird game theory kind of dynamic. Extra-ironically markets seem to have priced this in a bit today so no big rally.
Remember that Tucker kicked off this whole Kanye publicity tour, fawning over him and telling his audience that Kanye was being falsely slandered as nuts.
While we all wait for returns, some thoughts about my expectations for today and the implications, at the broadest level, for American democracy.
First I think the Republican party poses a serious threat to American democracy and has turned away from democratic norms and towards authoritarian delusions and aspirations. That said...
I don't think a GOP victory this week signals the End of Democracy. There's no final, definitive moment. There will remain many means of democratic resistance to authoritarian aspirations that the broad pro-democratic majority will have to use:courts, protest, elections, etc