I have lots of questions about the last few days of positive COVID tests in the NFL.
This is going to be a little disjointed.
So...a thread.
1/n
Report: Atlanta had a player -- cornerback A.J. Terrell -- test positive Friday or Saturday. The Falcons were cleared to play on the strength of reassuring contact tracing and negative testing through gameday.
2/n
Report: Tennesse had a position coach test positive on Saturday. The Titans were cleared to play Sunday on the strength of reassuring contact tracing and negative testing through gameday.
3/n
Report: Tennessee now has eight additional players/staff with confirmed positive COVID tests. These include a long snapper, a tight end, and a defensive tackle. These are confirmed positives -- false positives have been ruled out.
4/n
It's generally believed a person may be exposed & infected & asymptomatic for 24-48 hours before testing positive.
It's recommended that close contacts of someone who tests + for COVID quarantine for 14 days - regardless of whether the close contact tests positive or not.
5/n
Question:
How likely is it that neither the Falcons (starting cornerback) or Titans (LB coach) had zero persons considered a close contact within 48 hours of their positive tests?
6/n
Question: Does NFL policy assume anyone with symptoms and with a negative test within 48-72 hours of a close COVID+ contact is sufficient to end quarantine?
7/n
Question:
If there were truly no close contacts and NFL did not clear anyone within known gray area of exposure and contagiousness, how did eight additional Tennessee staff and players test positive within 72 hours?
7/n
It strains credulity to assume all 9 TEN positives are unique and include no secondary cases.
So, I'm nervous contact tracing was inadequate or NFL is using tests to shorten length of quarantine. Either of those two holes would need to be plugged - with a quickness.
9/n
I'm hopeful all players and staff have mild cases of COVID and very hopeful we have no additional positives in Tennessee, Minnesota, and Atlanta this week.
Fingers crossed.
Fin.
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Earlier this week, I questioned whether ATL (no close contacts reported, cleared to play, no subsequent positives) or TEN (cleared to play, ongoing outbreak) was the outlier situation with respect to contact tracing and testing protocols.
1/n
Lots of strong reporting this morning suggests contact tracing and practice protocols were appropriate in ATL while league is investigating how TEN handled those same protocols.
2/n
Still disconcerting to see ongoing TEN positives 5-6 days after last probable facility exposures. Hopeful this proves to be the outlier situation and tipping point for all teams to tighten protocols.
3/n
Earlier in week, felt Hill's status was either-or proposition. If medical staff felt comfortable w/ stability of sternoclavicular joint, Hill was likely to play and see his pre-injury snaps and workload.
1/x
Tyreek Hill
Felt pre-injury workload was likely because:
*stable joint means risk of re-injury low and same on snap 47 as snap 1.
*Hill's role in offense is known commodity and doesn't require advance notice to game plan
**KC depth chart offers no Hill-like alternatives
2/x
Tyreek Hill
Overnight reports suggest medical staff comfortable w/ stability of Hill's joint. That was primary hurdle to playing this week.
But reports of soreness suggest Hill is having some football-specific reconditioning issues. Soreness limiting his range of motion?
3/x
Lots of follow up to come on injuries overnight and tomorrow.
Expect Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, and Drew Brees -- among others -- to have MRIs to further evaluate their injuries.
Early thoughts ...
1/x
Ben Roethlisberger:
Reached for top of elbow, non-contact injury, possible early-week inflammation.
Just my early speculation, but looks more likely tennis elbow type injury or muscle strain than UCL sprain. Hopefully, rest and rehab and short absence.
Should know more soon.
Drew Brees:
Hard to see what happened on video but sideline exam shown on television very worrisome for a UCL thumb sprain. If so, Brees may need surgery and weeks of recovery.
I'm more nervous about a prolonged absence for Brees than Roethlisberger.
Lots of players are injury prone. Medical and training staff knows which of their players are at highest risk. While possible to estimate a player’s risk based on what we know — there’s so much we don’t know that it’s hard to handicap how good that “estimate” may be.
For example, we know players with previous ACL tears are at higher risk of another ACL injury. They are “prone to injury.” Some of those have associated meniscal or cartilage injuries that will shorten careers. They are injury prone. And there are tons and tons of other examples.
But it doesn’t always follow that a set of prior injuries means a player is prone to future injury. And many, many players who do not have a long list of injuries are prone to injury due to biomechanical and functional factors folks outside the league know nothing about.
Helmet-to-helmet hit with dizziness after the game for Austin Ekeler. Anthony Lynn wouldn't confirm but obviously worrisome for concussion. Would be very difficult to gain clearance for road Thursday night game if so.
Interesting that Ekeler talked to reporters in locker room, however. Lynn reporting dizziness after hit suggests concussion. But Ekeler would unlikely have been cleared to talk to the media if he was in return to play protocol.
Now, Schefter reporting stinger as diagnosis.
Odd.
Either way, Ekeler's status in serious doubt for Thursday.
Concussion: Nearly impossible to gain clearance in time to travel to Thursday night game.
Recurrent stinger requiring more evaluation: Symptoms likely to require more than one week rehab/recovery.