Thread by @uOttawaCIPS

To close our morning panel, we’re sharing Helen Baxendale’s thread here. She is presenter #7! #5EyesCIPS

https://twitter.com/abrahamsen_rita/status/1311297266293112833

After some wrangling, the FVEY states have arrived at a common position on the use of Huawei technology. But the Huawei snafu is likely just the first of many challenges to alliance solidarity as an expansionist China looks for ways to win allies to its cause. #5EyesCIPS

In January this year the UK Government broke ranks with its Five Eyes allies, confirming that Huawei would be involved in building part of its 5G network. The decision defied warnings from the United States. #5EyesCIPS gov.uk/government/new…

The UK was also out of step with the declared positions of AUS+ NZ. Putting technological & economic expediency ahead of Five Eyes solidarity was decried by one US official as a “sucker punch” on “an absolutely key issue at a critical juncture.” #5EyesCIPS

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1223209251881017344?s=20

The condemnation of allies and growing domestic political pressure has since provoked a reversal in the UK position on Huawei. #5EyesCIPS

https://twitter.com/tomtugendhat/status/1283016039354310656?lang=en

There is relief among the Five Eyes community that a consistent position on the use of Huawei for critical infrastructure has ultimately emerged. #5EyesCIPS

Canada has not yet officially prohibited Huawei technology in its 5G build, but many observers consider it inevitable following Britain’s change of heart. #5EyesCIPS
scmp.com/news/china/dip…

The Huawei episode illustrates the challenges of keeping the alliance together in the face of growing pressure from China. Why, despite all the warnings, was the UK prepared to compromise such an important and longstanding alliance? #5EyesCIPS

The comparative cheapness of Huawei tech was a consideration, but many have also pointed to the very adept way that Huawei – & Chinese interests more broadly – have infiltrated British establishment + bought influence at the highest levels. #5EyesCIPS spectator.co.uk/article/the-we…

It seems inevitable that the Huawei episode will be just the first of many tests to Five Eye’s solidarity as China seeks to parlay economic power into geopolitical influence and the United States responds in kind. #5EyesCIPS

So far, Australia has shown itself most willing to follow the US’s more hawkish lead. #5EyesCIPS

In a post-COVID world the difficulty of keeping all Five Eyes allies on the same strategic page is only going increase. #5EyesCIPS

For example, Small, export-reliant, and now heavily indebted countries like NZ cannot afford to jeopardize trade with China. #5EyesCIPS thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-06…

Similarly, the Victorian Labor government’s MOU with Beijing suggests a change in partisan government at the national level could well see Australia split from the US and adopt a more accommodating position toward China. #5EyesCIPS

Canada too, may not be so unflinching the next time China slaps a ban on Canadian canola or sentences Canadian citizens to death on dubious charges. #5EyesCIPS scmp.com/comment/insigh…

In sum, it seems very unlikely that the Five Eyes alliance will hang together as naturally and seamlessly as it did during the unipolar period of the immediate post-Cold War era. #5EyesCIPS