New: The CDC has updated its testing guidance for colleges and universities. Previously only recommending testing for symptomatic individuals and contacts (and not recommending entry testing), the agency has posted more comprehensive guidelines. Thread: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
In the June 30 guidance, the CDC "does not recommend entry testing of all returning students, faculty, and staff." Experts like @CT_Bergstrom have critiqued this decision, calling it "inexplicable and irresponsible." chronicle.com/article/the-cd…
This new guidance was no doubt as a result of yesterday's JAMA commentary, in which CDC Director Redfield was a co-author. "Robust testing both on and near campuses will be essential for reducing or preventing transmission." jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
As you can see from the old (left) and new (right) guidance, the reasons for which testing might be performed was greatly expanded to include outbreak testing, screening and surveillance.
First: Symptomatic individuals and asymptomatic contacts. The new guidance is more detailed. CDC now suggests testing for all those in an expanded setting (residence hall floor) as well as widespread testing (across buildings). CDC recommends full quarantine regardless of result.
In the context of an outbreak, the CDC presents a tiered system for testing priority. After symptomatic individuals and contacts:
- Those in outbreak settings
- Random sample of asymptomatic students, faculty, and staff
- Community-based testing strategy by health departments
Examples of these people are below.
Now onto screening: "Testing a random sample of asymptomatic students, faculty, and staff could increase the timeliness of outbreak detection and response by rapidly identifying and isolating COVID-19 cases." While there is not a concrete mandate, recommendations are presented.
Notes about off-campus testing, which "might pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission."
"Strategies to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are not only to limit transmission on IHE campuses, but to also prevent transmission to the surrounding community."
Summary: These CDC guidelines are a major improvement from the June update and I hope they will be heeded by institutions as they make plans for the spring. @ChrisMarsicano and the team at @C2Initiative will have an updated testing plan database soon, which will be very useful.
We will continue to conduct research into the importance and efficacy of broad testing strategies in colleges, using case studies from those who do test and those who do not (as much). Much to learn over the next few months.
Just out in @JAMANetworkOpen led by @jeremyfaust: Our accounting of racial and ethnic disparities in all-cause excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period finds:
- >1.38 million excess deaths
- Pandemic exacerbated existing disparities jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Crucially, we found that while the greatest number of deaths occurred in the elderly population, mortality was 20% above what could be expected in the working-age population (ages 25-64). This has major implications for lost economic productivity and life expectancy.
Another harrowing statistic: Although the Black population was 14% of the total <25 population, they accounted for more than half (51% of the excess mortality). In all age groups, we found a combined 23 million years of potential life lost.
What if we considered the fact that the least-vaccinated demographic group is not along age, racial/ethnic, gender, or political lines, and is instead those who are uninsured?
As fall boosters ramp up, we need to conduct better outreach to the uninsured. kff.org/coronavirus-co…
Latest NCHS report says 31.2 million (11.5%) Americans under the age of 65 are uninsured, many of whom are concentrated in Southern states (see map with HHS ASPE data here). Polling from last year showed that many were unaware the vaccine was free. nytimes.com/2021/06/01/ups…
We also see a moderate concordance with the percent of a county's residents who are uninsured and a county's social vulnerability index. In other words, many of these communities with uninsured individuals also have high social vulnerability.
New analysis: Over 77% of Americans (256 million) and 66% of Americans 65+ (45 million) are not up to date on their COVID-19 vaccines, making the population vulnerable to severe outcomes from future surges. There are wide disparities among states, from 11% in AL/MS to 36% in VT.
Our up to date calculator goes beyond simply counting the boosted population and accounts for people who are between doses according to CDC's up to date guidelines (old graphic from April here). We account for age groups and vaccine types. cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Update on vaccines for kids under 5: Over 632,000 kids under 5 have received their first dose — up by around 92,000 from last week and now ~3.2% of this age group.
DC leads jurisdictions in uptake, with 17% of kids having received their first dose. Vermont leads states at 12%.
Despite a reasonably strong week the previous week, the pace of new doses being administered is showing signs of slowing (accounting for any possible data lag in recent days). More work on outreach and access is needed to sustain a high vaccination pace.
Over 42,000 kids — 0.2% of this age group — have received their second dose and are fully vaccinated. It is essential for providers and vaccination sites to remind parents to bring their children back for the second dose — critical to maintaining full protection.
New this morning: The White House has launched covid.gov, a one-stop website with information on tests, masks, treatments, vaccines and more. This tool provides useful resources for Americans to navigate this next phase of the pandemic. npr.org/2022/03/30/108…
The site is offered in three languages: English, Spanish and Mandarin Chinese. For those without internet access, there is also a phone number.
说中文的朋友们能搜索他们社区的新冠肺炎情况,寻找接种疫苗、检测的位置。
First, masks. The website links to a tool to find free high-quality N95 masks at pharmacies near you. cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
With today's announcement authorizing a second booster for individuals 50+, it is important to note that 16% (18.5 million) of these individuals are not fully vaccinated and 50% (59.2 million) have not received their first booster.
Data thread on this moment in the pandemic:
First, national trends. Cases and hospitalizations continue to decrease but are flattening out (excluding at-home tests). New cases are down to levels not seen since last May — ~26,000 per day.
However, as mentioned, the rate of declines in new case and hospitalization rates is slowing. The week-over-week percentage change for new cases is now close to 0% — showing that cases are flattening and could rise soon. We must remain vigilant.