PSA: “Earthquake prediction” is 100% bullshit in every possible way. That account “warning” of a dangerous swarm is fear-mongering to exploit your anxiety.
Block and ignore.
We CAN NOT predict what size quake will happen when & where. Wish we could, but real-life rocks are complicated.
We CAN forecast probabilities and understand how stress fields interact. For example, the Salton Sea swarm is unrelated to the San Andreas Fault:
The darkly funny part is this not even a feasible guess.
Normal charlatans can hope chance is on their side (gizmodo.com/a-quick-guide-…), but all the faults close enough to be part of this swarm are too tiny to produce anything bigger than an M5.
Whoopsie.
Seismologists are not shy about sharing news & our seismometers live-broadcast. You can check the data. 🤷🏻♀️
That all the legit seismologists are silent or tiredly debunking (thank u Lucy Jones) is a good indicator nothing ominous is happening.
I’m reading a lot of well-intentioned articles that make it clear how many scicomm peeps have no idea disaster risk reduction is a deep field with a lot of research into effective communication.
ProTip: Using fear & shame as motivation backfires when applied to public health.
I can’t write this article (or even thread!) right now as I’m under medical orders to drop my stress levels (ahahahahasob), but...
If you’re writing well-intentioned pieces trying to influence pandemic behaviour, please take some cues from disaster sociology research. It exists!
Fundamental premise:
Vanishingly few people make active choices they believe will endanger themselves or the people they love.
If they’re making “bad” choices, it’s a fundamentally different risk perception. Until you understand how & why, your argument will miss its audience.
Even if you don’t pay much attention to ground-based astronomy, you know this telescope from pop culture & movies. It’s somewhere special. nature.com/articles/d4158…
This article from just before the closing announcement is fantastic for the context of why Arecibo is so unique: space.com/arecibo-observ…
I just...
I know we’ve got a lot going on, especially with the mass casualty event scheduled shortly after US Thanksgiving.
But take some time to read the Arecibo tributes as they come out. They won’t be cheerful. But they’ll be heartfelt.
But technically landslide are fluid-like, not fluids.
Why?
Because they’re a mixed mess of materials that act differently when moving than when still. You can’t just sample a tree trunk, some peat, and water to figure out the rheologic properties (how it flows).