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John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
@jburnmurdoch
Oct 1, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Tidied up a chart from the new Indian study that I think does a great job of showing what we mean by super-spreading:

Vast majority of confirmed cases don’t go on to infect anyone else; a small number of people account for the majority of transmission

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… Image
This is why the Japanese approach of avoiding the three Cs (enClosed spaces, Crowded spaces, Close contact) has been so effective.

Even if someone is highly infectious, you hugely constrain the amount of spreading they can do if you limit the number of people they’re mixing with
We still don’t know exactly what causes super-spreading. Is it mainly that someone is especially infectious, or mainly that a moderately infectious person spends time in an enclosed & crowded space while infectious?

Whatever the answer is, avoiding the 3Cs can only help.
One of the best pieces on this was @kakape’s story here for @ScienceMagazine sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…

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More from @jburnmurdoch

John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Aug 9
It’s really striking how the Corbynite left has migrated to the Greens.

The result is a curious coalition between the older and more Nimby environmentalist base, and the new hard left/progressive influx.

These are quite different people with quite different politics! Image
In 2019, one in ten Green voters was from the most progressive/left segment of voters; now that’s one in four.

Big difference in policy preferences, priorities and pressure on the leadership, as we’ve seen in e.g reaction to Denyer’s Biden statement.
The most glaring tension between these two types of Green is on decarbonisation, where the older Nimby base doesn’t want pylons *or even onshore wind farms* but many of the new progressive Green vote do.

Greens are actually less keen on wind farms than Labour and Lib Dem voters! Image
Read 8 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Aug 4
That incredible Noah Lyles victory in chart form.

Lyles was in last place until *50m*, and then surged past the field to take it on the line. A blue streak.

Thompson led from 25m to 95m, but not when it counted. Image
Granular timing data via @jgault13 and the Olympics website
@jgault13 Bolt was the greatest ever, and his huge margins of victory were iconic, but this was the best men’s 100m race I’ve ever seen.
Read 6 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jul 15
Essential chart from the new mega report on the general election by @Moreincommon_

The vast majority of people — including Reform voters — said the Tories lost because they were incompetent, not because they were too left or right wing. Image
And to the extent that people thought they were either too left or right wing, equal shares gave each answer.

There’s one very clear message and anything else is a distraction.

Full report here: moreincommon.org.uk/media/e3in12zd…
Another great chart:

When asked what were the biggest mistakes the Conservatives made in government, the common themes are not left or right, but:
• Mismanagement
• Lack of integrity
• Incompetence
• Dishonesty
• Corruption
• “They are chaotic” Image
Read 4 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jul 10
Under-appreciated stat from last week’s election:

Labour won its lowest ever share of the vote in deprived areas (<50% for the first time), and its highest ever share in affluent areas.

The result is a dramatic flattening of the class gradient in Labour support. Image
Here’s the same thing laid out as a timeline so you can see specific elections.

Interesting how Blair 1997 and Corbyn 2017 had similarly steep class gradients.

And shows how Starmer’s landslide was quite different to Blair’s. Image
This is all another side-effect of the hyper-efficient distribution of the Labour vote last week.

Very large margins in safe seats (many in very deprived areas) were squeezed, while gains in more affluent areas won seats from the Tories.
Read 5 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jul 3
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking.

Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that).

Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results. Image
The Conservatives weren’t especially popular with their backers in 2019 (mainly a vote for Brexit and against Corbyn), and this was a big part of why they fell so far since then, but Lab voters this time are even less enthusiastic about their party than Tory voters were in 2019.
Of course, all that matters tomorrow is winning more seats than the opponents, and Starmer’s Labour will manage that very easily.

But if they don’t start delivering tangible results, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Labour start bleeding votes in all directions.
Read 6 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
May 17
NEW 🧵: how Britain became gripped by the worst homelessness crisis in the developed world Image
Here the column in full

Now let’s get into the detail:ft.com/content/24117a…
Some people have responded to that chart with "That can’t be right", or "We can’t be worse than America".

I’m afraid the chart is right. 15 years ago the UK’s record on homelessness *was* not too dissimilar to other developed countries, but things have rapidly deteriorated. Image
Read 23 tweets

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