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John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
@jburnmurdoch
Oct 1, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Tidied up a chart from the new Indian study that I think does a great job of showing what we mean by super-spreading:

Vast majority of confirmed cases don’t go on to infect anyone else; a small number of people account for the majority of transmission

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… Image
This is why the Japanese approach of avoiding the three Cs (enClosed spaces, Crowded spaces, Close contact) has been so effective.

Even if someone is highly infectious, you hugely constrain the amount of spreading they can do if you limit the number of people they’re mixing with
We still don’t know exactly what causes super-spreading. Is it mainly that someone is especially infectious, or mainly that a moderately infectious person spends time in an enclosed & crowded space while infectious?

Whatever the answer is, avoiding the 3Cs can only help.
One of the best pieces on this was @kakape’s story here for @ScienceMagazine sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…

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More from @jburnmurdoch

John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Apr 12
NEW: my column this week is about the coming vibe shift, from Boomers vs Millennials to huge wealth inequality *between* Millennials.

Current discourse centres on how the average Millennial is worse-off than the average Boomer was, but the richest millennials are loaded 💸🚀 Image
That data was for the UK, but it’s a similar story in the US. The gap between the richest and poorest Millennials is far wider than it was for Boomers. More debt at the bottom, and much more wealth at the top.

In both countries, inequality is overwhelmingly *within* generations, not between them.Image
And how have the richest millennials got so rich?

Mainly this: enormous wealth transfers from their parents, typically to help with buying their first home.

In the UK, among those who get parental help, the top 10% got *£170,000* towards their house (the average Millennial got zero).Image
Read 9 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Mar 11
NEW 🧵:

American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment.

I think this is simultaneously one of the most important social trends in the US today, and one of the most poorly understood. Image
Last week, an NYT poll showed Biden leading Trump by less than 10 points among non-white Americans, a group he won by almost 50 points in 2020.

Averaging all recent polls (thnx @admcrlsn), the Democrats are losing more ground with non-white voters than any other demographic. Image
People often respond to these figures with accusations of polling error, but this isn’t just one rogue result.

High quality, long-running surveys like this from Gallup have been showing a steepening decline in Black and Latino voters identifying as Democrats for several years. Image
Read 33 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Feb 23
The politics of America’s housing issues in one chart:

• People and politicians in blue states say they care deeply about the housing crisis and homelessness but keep blocking housing so both get worse

• Red states simply permit loads of new homes and have no housing crisis Image
And if you were wondering where London fits into this...

It builds even less than San Francisco, and its house prices have risen even faster.

That cities like London & SF (and the people who run them) are considered progressive while overseeing these situations is ... something Image
Those charts are from my latest column, in which I argue that we need to stop talking about the housing crisis, and start talking about the planning/permitting crisis, because it’s all downstream from that ft.com/content/de34df…
Read 20 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Feb 9
NEW: we often talk about an age divide in politics, with young people much less conservative than the old.

But this is much more a British phenomenon than a global one.

40% of young Americans voted Trump in 2020. But only 10% of UK under-30s support the Conservatives. Why? Image
One factor is that another narrative often framed as universal turns out to be much worse in the UK: the sense that young generations are getting screwed.

Young people are struggling to get onto the housing ladder in many countries, but the crisis is especially deep in Britain: Image
It’s a similar story for incomes, where Millennials in the UK have not made any progress on Gen X, while young Americans are soaring to record highs.

Young Brits have had a much more visceral experience of failing to make economic progress. Image
Read 31 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jan 28
Quick response to this:

The confusion stems from the fact that I used the Gallup Poll Social Series, whereas the below is using the General Social Survey.

The Gallup poll samples 10,000+ people, whereas the GSS (below) only samples about 2,000 (and only about ~250 under-30s)
Folks like @EconTraina are right to say the GSS data for 2022 is dubious because they changed the sample mode.

This is precisely why I didn’t use that data.

The divergence I find is due to using a different dataset, not including a dodgy data point
Image
The reason the GSS still appears in my list of data sources is that I used it for the period before the 1998 Gallup poll began in 1998.
Read 7 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jan 26
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world.

I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles. Image
My column this week is on new global gender divide and its implications

But let’s dig deeper:ft.com/content/29fd9b…
We’re often told Gen Z are hyper progressive, but other surveys suggest they’re surprisingly conservative 🤔

But breaking things down by sex provides an explanation: young women are very progressive, young men are surprisingly conservative.

Gen Z is two generations, not one.
Read 31 tweets

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