Today was a good day for the UK COVID numbers; The solid(er) ground of the REACT survey indicates slow growth of this set of infections (along with other things - see my thread) + the testing system capacity is up and turn around time is back(ish) to summer levels.
This is a tribute to the public health (both local+national) in the North West and North East, the forbearance of the people living in these lockdown regions and, for testing, the hard work of Pillar1 + Pillar2. Total respect for everyone involved.
*however*
Pausing / plateauing growth is a fragile situation; one would like to suppress the virus down to at least some lower levels *and* we have more contact pattern changes to feed in with universities and also a severe risk of temperature+ weather changing how transmission rates.
Plus, I'd highlight that Northern Ireland (Derry) and Glasgow look less controlled to my amateur eyes at the moment. We are going to have, best case, a slightly edgy month watching numbers I hope bump down. I bet it will be bumpy.
On the future positive side, the testing capacity build out is not done yet - more to come I suspect (and promised!); the App has probably not been fully used; more focus on the fine details of back-tracing with action (a long standing drum I beat!) and supporting isolation.
To navigate numbers, remember the solid ground is the REACT survey, the ONS survey and hospitalisations. Other daily numbers are complex to pull apart (even for the pros) and full of complex reporting lags, biology lags and also ascertainment issues.
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