Thread by @kimwillsher1

Santé Publique France has just sent its weekly press release with the detailed data for week 39 (21-27 September).
The preamble says the epidemic is progressing, but the figures need to be interpreted "with care". It says the French have been good at wearing masks but...

...have dropped their guard "with regard to social interactions".
New hospital admissions rose +15% and new ic admissions 31%. There were 436 deaths attributed to Covid-19 in hospitals/care homes, +31% on the previous week. This brings the total number of deaths to 31,893.

This is a 42-page document so I won't post it all!

In week 39 a total of 924,687 people were tested for Covid-19 using the PCR nasal test. 70,458 of these tests were positive a drop of -5% on the previous week. The % of positive tests rose from 6.4% in W38 to 7.6% in W39.

The national incidence rate remains stable: 105/100,000 population a drop of -5% on the previous week.

The highest rate in mainland France in W39 was Paris with 256/100,000 people, followed by the Rhône 220, Nord 203 and Haute-Garonne 203.
The % positive tests in mainland France in W39 was highest in Isère 12.9%, Seine-Saint-Denis 12.7%, Paris 12%, Essonne 11.8% and Rhone 11.5%

Clusters: 384 in W39, a slight drop on previous week (401). Site of clusters.
1. workplaces (public and private - not including health establishments)
2. schools and universities.
3. Health establishments
4. Public or private events/gatherings
5. Extended family setting

R number showing a downward curve nationally. Geographic details in the screenshot.

On 29 September, there were 6,500 people in hospital with Covid-19 in France of whom 1,204 were in ic.

The number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 is rising:
W37 = +176
W38 = +252
W39 = +341
As the graphs show, these are absolutely nowhere near the number of weekly deaths seen at the height of the epidemic in March/April.

Public health authority's analysis of the risk and level of vulnerability as of 30 September. More than half of France deemed "high" vulnerability.

Interesting little graphic of a poll of French people's behaviour. People reasonably good at wearing masks, washing hands, keeping their distance, but not heeding advice to avoid getting together, according to data.

New admissions to i/c:
W38 = 599
W39 = 786 (+31%)
In the report in bold: "the weekly number of new i/c admissions continues to increase exponentially".
Highest level of hospital and i/c admissions is Ile-de-France.

Report says: "If the epidemic continues its dynamic, it is estimated that the weekly number of new patients admitted to hospital will double in 25 days, and the weekly number of new i/c patients will double in 16 days.

CONCLUSION OF REPORT
1. number of new confirmed cases (incidence) stable but possibly underestimated given difficulties with testing in several regions. Clusters possibly underestimated too. All these indicators to be interpreted with care.

2. Hospital/ic admissions and deaths attributed to coronavirus rising.

And that's it for the Santé Publique France report on Covid-19 for week 39 (21-27 September).

Bonne nuit à tous!

NB: I missed out contact tracing (sorry, it's getting late!). Figures in this last screenshot.