This might be a good opportunity to explain why I will *not* be saying "I've seen enough" on Election Night 11/3 (besides the main reason, which is a longstanding contractual obligation w/ a network desk)...
My general approach to "seeing enough" on Twitter is to make that declaration at a ~98% personal confidence interval, whereas a media organization might prudently wait to project a race at a ~99%+ confidence interval.
In other words, I'd expect that for every 98 times "I've seen enough" ends up being correct, there might be two times it ends up being incorrect.

I'm comfortable w/ that level of risk on most nights. But on 11/3, the stakes are way too high to mischaracterize results.
Making sound judgments on Election Night - when data is flying faster and more furiously than any one person can handle - requires a team.

Fortunately, major networks employ experienced teams. Responsible 11/3 coverage demands statistical rigor, transparency & patience.

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More from @Redistrict

19 Nov
BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals...

Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%)
Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%)

Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain.
Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) needed to win the Chenango absentees by ~38% to overtake Tenney's lead and he won them by 36.2%.

Looks like #NY22 could turn into another heartbreaker for House Dems, but given NY's stone age vote tabulation, who knows. Lawyers descending now...
For those wondering why there were about 400 fewer ballots counted than the earlier 5,164 estimate of Chenango ballots...

1) a few hundred votes went to the Libertarian
2) a few left #NY22 race blank
3) a few affidavit ballots were rejected
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov
New: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) w/ a solid 70%-30% split out of Oneida Co. today, now trails Claudia Tenney (R) by just 2,089 votes by my count. #NY22 will be decided by ~4800 Chenango Co. absentees tomorrow, and likely to be decided by <500 votes either way. Wow.
Breaking: I've been made aware of a newly counted batch of Madison Co. challenged ballots that broke 91-14 Brindisi, as well as a slight update to Broome Co.'s election day totals. My latest #NY22 tally:

Tenney (R) 153,922 (+1,968)
Brindisi (D) 151,954

It's a jump ball.
Also, #NY22 sources tell me there are 5,165 ballots left to count in Chenango Co. (incl. 280 provisionals) and 32 provisionals left in Oneida, and that's it.

Bottom line: Brindisi (D) would need to win what's left by a margin of ~38% to win.
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
2016 presidential results in Chicago, IL:

Clinton 912,943 (84%)
Trump 135,317 (12%)

2020 presidential results in Chicago, IL:

Biden 932,556 (83%)
Trump 179,278 (16%)
2016 presidential results in Detroit, MI:

Clinton 234,871 (95%)
Trump 7,682 (3%)

2020 presidential results in Detroit, MI:

Biden 233,908 (94%)
Trump 12,654 (5%)
2016 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:

Clinton 345,084 (85%)
Trump 37,688 (9%)

2020 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:

Biden 375,630 (85%)
Trump 55,988 (13%)
Read 6 tweets
16 Nov
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:


And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) might be on pace to win reelection in a heavy Trump district - saving Dems a key House seat.
Per @JRosenblattTV, who has done yeoman's work tracking the numbers in Upstate NY, Claudia Tenney (R) is leading Brindisi (D) 147,890 to 138,161 at the moment.

But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
In 2018, Brindisi (D) beat Tenney (R) 51%-49% district-wide. Right now, Brindisi is already ahead of his '18 margin in Broome - which still has more heavily D mail ballots to count - as well as Tioga, which might be nearly done counting.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
The first state to certify its 2020 election results? Delaware:

Biden 296,268 (58.7%)
Trump 200,603 (39.8%)

That's a 7.6 point margin swing against Trump and a 14.2 percent increase in votes cast vs. 2016.…?
(adding WY to start a state certification thread)
Oklahoma has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,020,280 (65.4%)
Biden 503,890 (32.3%)

That's a 3.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.4% increase in votes cast.…?
Read 28 tweets

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