Marc Ambinder Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The continuity of government programs don’t say much about *successor incapacitation* , much as security protocols can’t do a heck of a lot with “everyone including the PPD, has to quarantine” while protecting a president who might be sick with a contagious, deadly virus.
In emergencies, WHMO and the White House staff have places to go, people to protect those places, and decent, secure communication networks. This is uncharted territory.
Starting early in the summer, WHMO and the @SecretService sketched out new ad hoc arrangements for precisely this scenario. The details and logistics are really complex because of the stochastic nature of this situation and the virus.
Like: how to change security rotations and WHMO emergency action team protocols to account for the actual presence of a virus cluster? Who can / can’t work from home? What if the medical unit itself gets sick? How much risk is it reasonable to assume?
Without giving away secrets, it’s reasonable to assume that the WHMO and USSS would love to put a President into a bubble somewhere away from all but one or two staff members... like Putin at his dacha... but that this President will want his quarantine to be modified.
Everything that @NormOrnstein has been fretting about for years is in play: the mayhem of the “bumping provisions,” members of Congress in the line of succession, potential executive branch incapacitation without reconstitution plans....the most contentious election since 1876..
One other thing the contingency programs all assume: there is a clear and healthy presidential successor somewhere AND that the successor won’t be in tension with his or her partially incapacitated predecessor! Can’t assume that Trump won’t Tweet, even if he gets sick.
More of how messy this stuff can be, here: theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
If the COG programs come into conflict with reality, presidential continuity rests on a set of laws and the constitution. Those are really messy, too. They assume clarity and Manichaean dilemmas . mprnews.org/story/2020/04/…
They also assume a president will tell the truth and want that truth known to all.
So, what you should want, now, is for the President not to get the virus.
One final word: given the incubation period for Covid, I can’t imagine a doctor (not even Scott A.!) would say it’s ok for the President to not quarantine even if he tests negative tonight. He was exposed yesterday. If he travels tomorrow, he’s not following doctors orders.

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More from @marcambinder

Aug 14, 2022
So, nuclear classification issues. For the @NNSAHruby equities - National Nuclear Security Administration, part of the @ENERGY department, @CherylRofer has a great explainer. As @wellerstein and others have explained exhaustively, a lot of information about nuclear weapons is.
Born classified. That is, by statute, not by executive order, it is protected national defense information. NNSA and DOE declassify various bits ... like, "the yield from this test was x" or "ablative laser refraction is used to help develop more precisely implosion technologies.
These documents don't usually make their way to the White House. They have to do with the technical specifications of nukes, their vulnerabilities, the science of the Super, etc. The most sensitive category of Restricted Data is probably Sigma 14.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 4, 2021
Thread: this isn't a pattern from the noise. During the last few months, the Biden administration has aggressively ramped up its cyber defense and cyber offense efforts, throwing attack groups for a loop.
(1) There was a still-secret national security decision directive ordering a whole-of-government offensive counter cyber intrusion campaign. # (2) Acknowledged offensive Cybercom operations targeting major ransomware firms (reuters.com/technology/exc…)
(3) Aggressive moves to curtail the use of spyware. (See the NSO story today.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 3, 2021
If voters "just knew the truth" is seductive and reductive and gives the media omnipotence (also, weirdly, does the same for the anti-media (the GOP machine)..while giving voters zero agency and treating them like dolts.
The right wing anti-media machine exists. It's powerful. It's asymmetrically powerful. It hurts Dems sometimes. Grieving about it makes a lot of consultants rich. The account that it's *dispositive* fails to plausibly explain so many counter-examples and is unpersuasive.
How much coverage did the VA media give to Youngkin's ties to Trump relative to the GOP gaslighting on schools? I'd be interested in a qualitative and quantitative breakdown. A few selective online headlines from @WashPost don't count. Also, the polls were right this time.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2021
Others are thinking: If Dems in Congress had passed really the popular stuff that helps eveything, and could point to it, rather than having to rely on/mess up their anti-Trump /cultural messaging - and Dems mess this up regardless of what side you're on ....
Of course there is no single reductive answer as to why... but only the absolute fact that Dems lost to a candidate they had every reason to think they could beat...
The limits of Trump's stench. Macker's campaign. Frustration with Dems in Congress. Gaslighting from the right. Fairly good campaign by Youngkin. Dems lost the salience wars.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 25, 2021
The #AspenInfoCommission on the infodemic will be extraordinarily valuable and the commissioners are first-rate. I wish I was had been selected, but seeing the caliber of the scholars and thinkers who were, I don’t feel put out. I feel obliged to help, where I can.
My focus continues to be on pragmatic intervention: what the ordinary person can do to model good information processing habits, mindful social communication, and effective claim reviews and fact-checking. For a subset: information operations, response matrices, org dynamics.
I see criticism of the commission for adding a few high-profile public figures with deep intuitive knowledge of the press and communication. I know that Aspen is Aspen and is going to Aspen, but I see value in the perspectives.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18, 2021
A Threat About the Nuclear Transfer of Power: When President Trump departs Joint Base Andrews at 8:00 am on 1/20, he will be accompanied by a military aide and an emergency actions team, never more than 2 doors or 2 minutes away... for the last time.
Simultaneously, as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris begin their day and prepare to depart for the U.S. Capitol, two teams of military aides -- with two other satchels -- will shadow them.
As VP Pence departs in a motorcade from the Naval Observatory, a FOURTH team from the White House Military Office will ride a few cars behind him.
Read 26 tweets

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