Phil Syrpis Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Might the Brexit talks be about to enter 'the tunnel'? Is high-level political intervention going to enable a deal to be reached? Some thoughts - focused on the UK side. 1/13
My first thought is that a deal *can* be reached. The UK could have one of many relationships with the EU, depending on the UK's preference. The EU will insist on a balance between rights and responsibilities (and there will be a battle over how that balance is struck). 2/
This could be anything from membership of the EEA, to a comprehensive 'trade +' deal, to a more thin free trade agreement. The more the UK wants easy access to the EU market, the more rules it will have to agree to be bound by. 3/
Those close to the negotiations, who have taken a close interest in the way in which the two sides' positions have evolved, can see ways in which the divides (eg on fish and state aid) can be bridged. 4/
But (and that is a big but), my second thought is reaching a deal depends on political will: to make a deal, and to compromise in order to make such a deal possible. And I am very sceptical about whether the will is there. 5/
As many have written, a thin deal (the maximum the UK Govt appears to want) will be disruptive. There will be 'friction', including in relation to trade between GB and NI. A lot of things which were easy (as a result of EU level rules), will become more difficult. 6/
Why compromise, why 'sell out' (by compromising with the EU), why antagonise much of your Parliamentary party, just in order to get a deal which manifestly fails to deliver on what you have been promising? 7/
One reason is that the alternative (no deal) is worse - it will create even more disruption.

But, the Govt has said that it is ready for no deal and that the UK will only thrive when it is free from the EU's regulatory orbit. 8/
Another reason is that the alternative (no deal) is unsustainable.

The Govt's response to this is either to dismiss it, or to claim that it will somehow be in a stronger position post no deal. 9/
It may be, and it is this which those hoping for a deal seem to rely on, that there is a rather large gap between the Govt's rhetoric, and the negotiating reality. It may be that, at this late stage, pragmatism will win out, and compromise will be embraced. 10/
I'm sceptical about that. Isn't it just as plausible to think that the Govt believes its own hype; and that it values an assertion of sovereignty over a (real, but relatively small) benefit in terms of trade and relations with the EU? 11/
The Internal Market Bill is the most recent illustration. It shows how far the UK is prepared to go - not to compromise with the EU in an attempt to get a deal, but to combine sovereignty and unfettered trade in an entirely unrealistic way. 12/ See:

ukandeu.ac.uk/internal-marke…
All in all, it doesn't feel to me that we are close to a deal (which is, to reiterate, not to say that a compromise deal cannot be found).

The Govt's rhetoric does not point towards a deal. And, it has little political space for compromise. 13/13

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More from @syrpis

Jun 5
Probably not one for the heat of the election battle, but for me at least, something which goes to the core of the damage done by this Govt.

It is about the Govt's relationship with the set of institutions listed below. THREAD 1/8
I'm thinking of Parliament, the justice system, the Church, the armed forces, transport, schools, local government, the BBC, the NHS, social care systems, welfare systems, schools, universities, utility companies, the post office, the National Trust, libraries, etc 2/8
It's difficult to know just how to describe them.

Perhaps... what used to be 'the public realm'?

In any case, they now have a range of very different relationships with the 'state'. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21, 2023
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.

TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.

He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.

Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15, 2023
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.

But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.

Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
If there’s a unifying theme, it’s that people on the Right in the ‘culture wars’ want to act, and do act, as they please.

They do not believe that any negative consequences should attach to their words and actions. 1/3
They fail to see that their words and actions may have negative consequences for others, which those others may, legitimately, guard against.

It’s an individualistic mindset. And one which ignores power dynamics in society. 2/3
Johnson and Farage are two exemplars of this thinking.

They are used to getting what they want. And their instinct is to crush those who stand in their way. 3/3
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2023
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.

This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.

BUT... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5, 2023
So much of the Brexit debate is the same.

People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.

And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.

Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.

And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.

That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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