My latest for @climate looks at what *might* go wrong when "climate-related financial risk" concepts are applied to sovereign bonds. What does this mean for developing countries that are highly vulnerable to climate impacts? bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Feels sometimes like I am repeating myself but:
1) financial actors protecting themselves from climate risk does NOT necessarily create positive externalities.
2) this is apparent when you consider real world effects of managing for “transition risk” vs “physical risk”.
3) this would all be fine and hunky dory if the same actors being pro active about “climate risk” were just being all about the financial risks. They’re not, for the most part. They’re also talking about SDGs and “doing well by doing good” etc.
Meanwhile, African countries are beginning to seek debt relief. Same countries also tend to be among the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change & and thus likely to be downgraded for exposure to climate change. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Mind blowing: vulnerable African countries are already paying MUCH more to borrow than countries in other parts of the world with similar ratings. Eg Ghana pays a whole percentage point more than Belarus, despite similar ratings! bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This is from Moody's back in the Before Times. You can guess the correlation between ND-GAIN (climate adaptation/vulnerability, not Moody's) index rating & pandemic-induced fiscal stress is high high high.
A country like Angola, that has been trying to reduce its dependence on oil, should get some space from its mainly UK-based commercial creditors who're probably down with climate risk & ESG, without *too* much begging & cajoling, right?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @kmac

17 Oct
Ghana’s finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, wrote about oped in the FT a couple of weeks ago, saying that Africa deserves more Int’l support for the damage wreaked by COVID.
on.ft.com/33MRTPA
He points out that the amount of support from IMF, WB, G20 debt servicing suspension etc is welcome but not enough. What’s needed is still only a tiny fraction of what OECD nations have spent on their Covid responses. But with the US blocking new SDR issuance; China..
..negotiating on a country by country basis which slows things down, and private creditors nowhere to be seen, the environment is pretty tough.
Read 8 tweets
16 Oct
Thread on what looks to be some very important new research (as with most things Fran does!).
co author @Capi_Planeta has a blog post: “Economists are well aware that human wellbeing is highly dependent on natural systems, however, it often remains unnamed in the guts of the computational models used to calculate the costs of climate change.”

…inabilitycommunity.springernature.com/posts/beyond-t…
Great to see all that effort by accountants to develop intricate “natural capital” is finding a use beyond voluntary sustainability reports.
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
By me: the IMF’s featured chapter on economics of climate mitigation suggests we might have crossed a tipping point - macro policy types are seeing beyond the reductive models that have plagued thinking about climate action for decades. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook dedicates one of its three main chapters on the merits of a global climate mitigation plan. It’s actually pretty interesting in itself. imf.org/en/Publication…
The report sets the stage by pointing out that our knowledge about the damages of climate change is still pretty limited. Even though models & methodologies are improving, some impacts (sea level rise) aren’t captured; neither are some mitigation benefits (eg less air pollution).
Read 17 tweets
1 Oct
Climate Change: World’s Biggest Polluters Are Hiding in Plain Sight
... for all the activity about “sustainability” etc, scope 3 emissions are still woefully underreported. bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-…
“The 182-page, 15-category guidance for Scope 3 disclosures offers so much scope for discretion and ambiguity that companies can more or less mark their emissions to model — or even refuse to disclose them at all.“
Sound familiar?
As anyone who’s spent time wrangling scope 3 numbers out of the CDP database knows, even after years, TCFD, shareholder resolutions, glossy reports etc... the standard of disclosure is poor and many of companies are not even pretending to try (hello, Exxon).
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
"Because green labels apply to standalone projects rather than to the firm’s overall activities, projects promising carbon reductions could be offset by carbon increases of the same firm elsewhere." Suggests firm-level green ratings instead. (Taxonomy?) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Duh, I forgot the EU is already on it: Image
That's from the BIS paper bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
Wow. Read this and the replies. Facebook is an utterly malign force in society today:
Prof Hayhoe is a well known & highly respected scientist for those who don’t know:
Events for climate scientists deemed “political”:
Read 4 tweets

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