my personal allocation sizes relegate “expected return” to the back burner. I roll with the assumption that systematic risk is irreducible and beta returns aren’t compensation for labor/research but patience and pain tolerance. It’s a weird circular argument:
there’s an equity risk premium because if there wasn’t everyone would take a riskless rate which would then lower demand for equities, once again creating an equity risk premium
1. As the put decays (or if vol falls enough) on the strike of the ITM calls, the extrinsic premium will evaporate. The carry to holding the long calls at intrinsic against short stock will be more expensive than the extrinsic of the strike.
So what happens?
The OP will be assigned as the option holder exercises early.
The OP may very well get "bot in" by his brokerage on his short share position.
Do you see what happens?
As vol decays or call goes deeper ITM, his desired position is fleeting because he gets assigned.
The thing I wonder about most in raising kids besides reinforcing a few core values (that as much as I think about legacy) is if persistence can be imparted. Curious others thoughts on that
I'm generally bearish on what can be imparted and thinking we have any control and prolly all we can do is model. I think approaches to build grit could possibly backfire (premature optimization -- i was a late bloomer maturity wise despite being born with a beard)
One of the lessons we were taught at SIG was that finding edge was the lifeblood.
"If you can find real edge we'll find a way to lay it off."
It is downstream of the idea that edge stacks linearly and risk scales sublinearly.
The sharp of any single trade in other words is not the sharp of the book over a year. I wrote we were flipping million dollar coins in exchange for a $10k payment up front. The sharpe stinks if you do it once. Do it 1000x and it's really hard to lose.