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Kris Profile picture
@KrisAbdelmessih
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Moontower Money Wiki:
Evergreen Beliefs That Work Together Image
"The Gift Of Market Efficiency"

notion.so/The-gift-of-ma…
"Investing Is A Loser's Game"

notion.so/Investing-is-a…
"Time and Human Capital"

notion.so/Time-and-Human…
"Towards A Prescription"

notion.so/Towards-A-Pres…

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More from @KrisAbdelmessih

Kris Profile picture
Mar 24
A little thread of fun intuition for option probability based on yesterday's letter

A couple weeks ago @dampedspring posted: Image
By saying I’d buy that proposition I’m saying “I’d buy that vol”

Andy, responded with a joke about what’s the “one touch” option worth, which I asked him to delete because I really would have liked a fool to sell me that proposition and Andy’s comment gives away the sauce.
[X’s killer app would be to escrow bets, but that’s another convo altogether]

I’d be a size buyer of a 50% probability that we get back to the highs before the end of the year.

Why?
Read 14 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Mar 17
On "surfing volatility"

I narrated some of my IBIT trading last week streams. Expiration on Friday went well but I want to zoom in on the experience broadly because it’s a classic flow of what vol trading looks like...
Just for recap Image
But that masks the process and experience. Let's start.

Initial Trade Setup

I liked selling near-dated IBIT vol while buying extra teeny options in the second month for a calendar spread.
Read 40 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Mar 12
Threading today's letter...

I was out Monday night in SF with friends from Parallax and we realized it’s been exactly 4 years this week since I left. I gotta tell you, while I don’t miss having the job, I deeply miss the people.
I deeply miss being an office (although I don’t miss the commute or the 4am mornings). I reference the film Clerks all the time, but my professional life felt like Clerks.
Non-stop banter, friendly debate, and just sharing highs and lows on this little rowboat that we were all paddling in the same direction. Clearly that wasn’t enough for me to stay. The work itself felt stale and my heart wasn’t in. Nobody’s fault. It’s just a me problem.
Read 30 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Mar 6
Stock up, vol up

best performers relative to their vol in the past week

germany, FEZ, euro

so...immediately your instincts should make you ask... Image
did the put skew invert?

spot down is stabilizing to vol relative to spot up

looking at the May expiry (closest to 60 dte) the 25d put skew is 75th percentile (1 yr lookback) and the a 15% premium to at-the-moneys Image
in other words either a cheap put spread if you think the flow has been choppy but probably an even better delta hedged trade or sell the puts hedged (possibly on a light delta...I'm thinking any model deltas are overestimates on these puts)
Read 4 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Feb 5
Procrastinating a bit this am so here's a thread based on today's letter.

@AFwithNick and I chatted back in Dec and he asked:

Isn’t every life decision essentially a vol trade?

I did the thing where you re-frame the question to one you prefer to answer...
What can option theory teach us about decision-making in general?

My response started:

I'm gonna piggyback off some of my training. I started at SIG, and famously—or infamously, at least in our little world—
Jeff Yass has said that you cannot be a sound decision-maker without understanding option theory. That's a heavy-handed way of putting it, but what he's really pointing to is that decision-making is a practice that has structured inputs.
Read 22 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Jan 22
I just finished @justinskycak book The Math Academy Way.

One of the coolest concepts is the interplay between spaced repetition and compressing what you need to review by understanding the linkage between concepts....
He explains the difference between an encompassing graph and a prerequisite graph. You are already familiar with the latter. The former whoever is not the mirror image. You may need to know X to learn Y, but by reviewing Y you may NOT have implicitly reviewed X...
In other words, it's not necessarily true that Y "encompassed" X. By constructing an encompassing graph you can compress review by efficiently choosing topics that encompass the learners' gaps.

[I've organized a bunch of Justin's work here ]notion.moontowermeta.com/principles-of-…
Read 6 tweets

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