Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Kris Profile picture
@KrisAbdelmessih
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Moontower Money Wiki:
Evergreen Beliefs That Work Together Image
"The Gift Of Market Efficiency"

notion.so/The-gift-of-ma…
"Investing Is A Loser's Game"

notion.so/Investing-is-a…
"Time and Human Capital"

notion.so/Time-and-Human…
"Towards A Prescription"

notion.so/Towards-A-Pres…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kris

Kris Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KrisAbdelmessih

Kris Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
Yesterday I published Path, VIX, & Hit Rates vs Expectancy

I'll thread some of the free portion...
We start with VIX.

The CBOE’s VIX index interpolates 30-day implied volatility based on options struck on the SPX index.

A VIX future settlement price is based on the prevailing VIX index at the future expiry date.
It’s a bit of a confusing concept. A future that expires to a VIX index level that looks ahead 30 days.

There are ETFs and ETNs that reference VIX futures (VIXY, VXX). They also come in levered and inverse forms (UVXY, SVXY).
Read 36 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Nov 10, 2024
Thread version of a post called:

why selling an option because the “stock will never get there” is amateur vol thinking
In stepping through an oil put trade, I wrote:

As a junior trader I remember selling calls because “it’ll never get there”. I promise you there are many people who think like that. They don’t understand vol trading.
A reader asked:

What’s wrong with selling OOM call options if vol is too rich? If it’s priced as a 1/100 event and it’s closer to 1/1000…that’s a good sale.

My response:
Read 17 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Oct 12, 2024
This post is fine, reasonable posture.

...but if I may piggyback off some of the numbers in the post...

I want to repeat what the post says but with slightly different emphasis which leads to a large difference in framing. Image
For example, it talks about people being in the top 5% of income or wealth being disappointed and you'd be better off having going in with lower expectations.

When I think the harsh but true reality is being in top 5% when you measure against the whole population just...
isn't that special.

When I was a kid rich was like Robin Leach stuff. It felt totally unattainable. And you know what it, it is. Rich as defined by its day is unattainable.

Of course someone will say "actually it is attainable" and my argument is...
Read 14 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Sep 30, 2024
Yesterday I unlocked a paid post that might have broad appeal

a deeper understanding of vertical spreads

thread version...
In part 1, we tackled a common problem without the use of an option model:

Assume SPY volatility is 16% and we want to hedge using a 1-year put.

2 questions emerge

✔️What strike is 1 standard deviation down?
✔️What’s the cost of that put?Image
Let's start by estimating the 1 s.d. OTM put value.

Steps:

1. Estimate 1 s.d. OTM strike.
2. Estimate ATM straddle to find the value of the ATM put.
3. Estimate ATM/1 SD put spread.
4. ATM put - put spread = 1 s.d. OTM put
Read 35 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Sep 8, 2024
A thread zooming in on a section of today's moontower...how arbitrage pricing creates opportunities for directional investors
it starts with a reader question about a common source of confusion -- why cheaper OTM calls (ie lower call skew) leads to more expensive call spreads and a higher probability of the stock going upImage
my response:

distribution is like a sculpture — the volatility skew moves some clay from the right tail to the left tail, and shifts the whole sculpture rightwards a smidge.Image
Read 13 tweets
Kris Profile picture
Aug 29, 2024
Thinking a bit about how certain fields and crafts and the extent to which the intensity of the enabling technology acts as a career or skill shock absorber...to be more concrete I was thinking about writing vs other fields...
STEM fields even if you stay in the theoretical force you to learn programming. If you make movies, music, photography there's an aspect of technical + technology that comes with the territory even if it's not the focus
(writing can be a technical craft of course it's just that the enabling tools are not themselves technology intense)

Facility with technology (the longest lever and highly defining theme of modernity impacting absolutely everything) has been key to adapting...
Read 18 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(