South Dakota early vote is a remarkable 22% of its 2016 general election turnout. You might think that is an indicator of Republican enthusiasm in a red state. But look at the mail ballot return rates. Reg. Dems have a higher return rate than Republicans electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
The phenomenon of registered Democrats returning their mail ballots at a higher rate than Republicans is happening everywhere. Here are the aggregate statistics across every party registration state I have mail ballot data for electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Not only have more registered Democrats requested mail ballots than Republicans, they are returning their ballots at a higher rate, too
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Mark was kind to provide me with the GA file the AJC obtained for this story. One of the striking things I saw was the rise in "17.5" registrations -- young people who will be 18 by November but are still 17
We should expect younger and more diverse voters to continue to register before Election Day. It happens every election! This is one of the reasons why I've thought polls that sample from voter registration files may be under-estimating Harris by a point
The thousands of GA 17.5 registrants aren't active voters yet -- but they will be. Unless a pollster specifically requests the pending list like the AJC, they won't have them. Even if you did, their identifying information is redacted because they are minors
Now there are premises here that are false. Trump says Christians don't vote but religious people -- particularly those who attend church frequently -- have higher turnout rates
The laws: Trump wants voter id (federal and state laws already require it), wants only citizens to vote (ditto: federal and state law restricts voting to citizens, the little noncitizen voting is infrequent clerical errors), vote on paper (states already do this)...
National Voter Registration Day is upon us, and so it is time for my annual screed against voter registration
First, we don't need voter registration. North Dakota doesn't have it, you just need id to vote. This is how most developed democracies manage their voter rolls, with the important exception their governments give national id cards to everyone without additional costs
This is why I support a national voter identification card, that the government provides everyone at no cost. usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
DeSantis’s Super-PAC Never Back Down is essentially a grift to take money from one uber-wealthy donor - Bigelow
The next Ocean’s movie idea: a rag tag band of con men steal tens of millions from an unsuspecting billionaire by convincing him a worthless candidate can win
Appears some of these charges against George Santos are similar to allegations of Herschel Walker redirecting campaign funds to a personal company thedailybeast.com/emails-reveal-…
From the Santos charges of allegations of him redirecting campaign donations to a personal company...
In this nexus of corruption is Tina Forte, who ran against AOC. There are false credit card transactions that mysteriously showed up in her campaign. The connection is Santos's campaign treasurer Nancy Marks. Expect to hear more about her motherjones.com/politics/2023/…
I posted updated graphics and statistics for demographic turnout rates calculated from the Current Population Survey to include 2022 electproject.org/election-data/…
(For the election nerds, these turnout rates differ from the Census Bureau tables in that I make a weight adjustment for the 17% of respondents who did not answer the CPS voting and registration supplement, and for vote over-report bias found in all surveys)
The electorate overall had the highest share of non-Hispanic Whites since 2014. Midterm elections tend to see a whiter electorate, although 2018 was a bit of an aberration. I fully expect to see a sizable drop in the White share of the electorate in 2024 compared to 2022