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Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
@JeremyKonyndyk
Oct 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The amazing thing is that it took this long.

There had been a lot of near misses:
Bolsonaro's entourage back in the spring:
cnn.com/2020/05/13/ame…
His valet in May: cnn.com/2020/05/07/pol…
Katie Miller, around the same time: politico.com/news/2020/05/0…
Campaign staff who worked his Tulsa rally in June:

apnews.com/article/23796a…
His National Security Advisor, in July:

cnn.com/2020/07/27/pol…
Those are just the ones we know about. And I'm sure I've missed some.

Despite this many close calls, he and his team still weren't masking, still weren't distancing, still weren't taking the risk seriously.

This was preventable. Trump and his team chose not to prevent it.

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More from @JeremyKonyndyk

Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
Sep 21
Blockbuster report on widening UAE support for the genocidal RSF militia in Sudan.

Also confirms what @RefugeesIntl has called out for a year: UAE is using Red Crescent (@emiratesrc) as humanitarian cover for military ops.

As UNGA convenes in NYC, this demands urgent action.🧵
What's at stake here? Quite literally genocide.

The RSF grew out of the Janjaweed militias that committed genocide in Darfur 20 years ago.

Now rebranded, the same forces are resorting to the same tactics. We documented some of their atrocities last fall. refugeesinternational.org/reports-briefs…

Image
Image
The RSF's systematic atrocities across Darfur are fueled by direct support & involvement of the UAE.

As the article (and several previous reports) make clear, the UAE has sent huge volumes of arms to the RSF since last year. And has now branched out to providing drone support.
Read 11 tweets
Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
Sep 12
New from us at @RefugeesIntl on famine in Gaza. Key takeaways:

- Parts of Gaza saw famine-like conditions in Feb/March
- Israeli concessions on aid access after ICJ order & WCK strike moved Gaza tenuously back below famine threshold
- Hunger worsening again since Rafah offensive
Since spring there has been a concerted pushback by the Israeli government seeking to cast doubt on the official famine analysis by @theIPCinfo.

Basic argument is that spring famine projections were overblown and therefore risks of future famine should be discounted.
Untangling the reality is important.

A lot of lives are at stake in a sustained famine in Gaza.

And that has major diplomatic and legal implications. The question of responsibility for the humanitarian crisis is key to ICJ & ICC cases, and the UK's recent halt to arms xfers.
Read 17 tweets
Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
Aug 12
Striking wording in this carefully-worded statement.

An "embargo" generally means a total ban on arms transfers. Opposing an "arms embargo" leaves the door pretty open to restrictions short of a full embargo.
The main thrust of advocacy on arms transfers Israel has not been a full embargo - it has focused on restricting things like 2000lb bombs and 155mm shells that are causing enormous civilian harm in Gaza.
So in effect this says she's opposed to a totally maximalist position - which could be read to suggest she's open to restrictions that fall short of that.
Read 5 tweets
Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
Jul 12
The pier was an expensive, shiny-object solution to a fundamentally political problem: Bibi was restricting aid access and Biden wouldn't deploy real leverage to change that.

The pier was a way to signal action on aid while avoiding the real obstacle.

🧵
This chart shows UN-verified aid & commercial inflows since October. The pier ("JLOTS") barely registers - just small slivers in May and July.
ochaopt.org/content/report…
Image
Vastly more impactful than the pier was the opening of the Erez West crossing into northern Gaza.

Netanyahu only agreed to this under intense US pressure following the World Central Kitchen attack...validating the premise that pressure delivers, while shiny objects don't. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
Jun 17
Just back from a Gaza-focused trip to Egypt/Jordan/Israel.

Key takeaways 🧵:
- Aid push in March/April made progress against famine
- Rafah offensive then wiped out much of that progress
- Huge obstacles remain on access & last-mile distro
- Little progress on aid worker safety
.@JesCMarks and I conducted hours upon hours of extensive interviews with Palestinians who had fled Gaza and (remotely) with others still inside; with staff of aid agencies working in Gaza; with Israeli & Jordanian govts; and with USG humanitarian & diplomatic officials.
We heard credible firsthand accounts consistent with famine conditions in March/April.

But also that the uptick in food deliveries from late March thru April - following the @theIPCinfo famine analysis and ICJ order - then blunted the descent toward famine in the north.
Read 19 tweets
Jeremy Konyndyk Profile picture
May 24
Rishi Sunak staked his leadership on extreme, illegal anti-asylum policies.

This proved to be a legal and political fiasco and ultimately a failure. He is on track to lose in a landslide.

There is a lesson here!

🧵 theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Conventional wisdom across western democracies for the last decade has assumed that performative "toughness" on asylum is a political necessity.

The center/left has accepted this toughness/deterrence framing by the far right, and the debate is over how inhumane to be.
Just look at the border asylum debate in the US, and Biden's reaction to it. He warns of "chaos" and calls for "tougher control."

He has issued questionably legal restrictions on asylum access, and is on the cusp of issuing yet more.
Read 9 tweets

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