Michael Mina Profile picture
Oct 3, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
About frequent rapid testing and the TRUMP White House:

I agree with ppl that the WH cluster f%^* is a shining example of how throwing caution to the wind in response to neg tests is a terrible idea

But it does NOT mean frequent rapid tests don’t help stop outbreaks

1/x
No single protective layer is 💯% for this virus. We need to remain vigilant.

We’ve said all along that frequent rapid tests help to stop spread similar to how masks help and should be considered similar to masks in how they are considered as a tool to curb outbreaks..

2/x
A frequent rapid test can detect MANY people who are infectious, but not everyone - just a bad swab (potentially intentional) can cause a positive to look negative.

But the point is that if used frequently, they can catch ppl early in their infection...

3/x
Because a test is never 💯%, we still need to work to stop additional virus in the air that may infect others. A test cannot stop this. Masks and distancing can

The WH failed this step in an epic way. The advisors who determined the plan in the Rosegarden were simply wrong

4/x
But even here, frequent tests are working to curb the outbreak!

It is for frequent testing that Trump and others were identified and isolated early from others so that they can no longer be a danger to others, including many vulnerable ppl, at least while in isolation.

5/x
Masks and distancing alone cannot identify someone who is transmitting virus and tests alone cannot stop someone from transmitting. Tests can help identify ppl and give them knowledge about their status so they don’t put others in harms way

But we need to maintain all three

6/x
The goal of massive rapid frequent testing is to identify not everyone transmitting but simply enough ppl to drop R below 1 and bring outbreaks to a crawl. That’s their real power.

7/x
If frequent testing is used inappropriately as passports to party, they can backfire in individual cases. But the population outcomes can still far outweigh the backfires. In this case, onward spread from the superspreading event is being halted bc of frequent testing.

8/x
We should see this not as a moment to say frequent testing doesn’t work, but as a teaching moment to allow the public - and WH - to understand that public health programs must work and be organized together to succeed.

Spread can still happen for any number of reasons...

9/x
To curb spread we want to identify as many transmitting people as we can and ask them to isolate so they don’t transmit and we want to ask everyone else to continue taking basic precautions. They synergize and work much much better together than in isolation.

10/10

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More from @michaelmina_lab

Jun 12
I've been thinking on my review of RFK Jrs 8 new ACIP members

When announced, I found myself thinking "could've been much worse" and so was relatively favorable

However, the bar being set so low caused me to miss a huge piece... and there's still great risk!

Short thread
1)
While I was pretty favorable to a majority of the new members - the bar is set inredibly low -

I was just happy the 8 were not the most hard core ideologues for whom destroying vaccines is practically religion (like RFK Jr)

That obscured the biggest problem of the group

2/
Perhaps the biggest problem is it is a panel of people who, generally speaking, are generally NOT:

experts in diseases vaccines prevent
experts in vaccines
infectious disease epidemiology
clinical trials

If this was the private sector, no way would this group pass muster

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 12
RFK Jr released names of 8 ppl he is placing into ACIP to replace 17 removed

Actually a majority are v reasonable - 2 of 8 however align heavily w conspiracy & anti-vax but as I discuss, their presence may have a silver lining

My thoughts:
Thread



1/cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/11…
Joseph Hibbeln MD has long researched and advocated for optimizing nutrition, including studying things like seafood consumption in pregnancy and role of mercury consumption and whether it is linked to autism. Generally he’s come out saying it’s not.

Summary: No evidence of anti science or anti vaccine. Likely very balanced and nuanced rigorous scientist to serve on ACIP. 
2/
Cody Meissner MD
Is a pediatric infectious disease expert at my Alma mater - Dartmouth. He is a rigorous scientist and has defended vaccines while formally recognizing underlying issues that are causing people to turn away from them - such as vaccine success driving down disease - affording people the luxury of focusing on very rare side effects while forgetting the real impacts of the diseases. 

For example in @NEJM he wrote: 

Summary. Terrific Choice

3/Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 26
This is horrible & exactly what we are afraid of - measles kills ppl

In ~100 infections in TX, someone has already died

For those w/out vacc- it is not the benign virus you’ve been told

1:5 hospitalized
1:100-1000 die

This will spread further.

1/

apnews.com/article/measle…
The measles vaccine is exceedingly safe

It stops infections & spread extremely well!!

Measles on the other hand

1) kills 1:100-1000
2) hospitalizes 1:5
3) Kills immune cells & deletes protection against other infections
4) causes early immune suppression / coinfections

2/
I am extremely concerned that the communities of vaccine hesitancy have grown enough that they are now “bleeding into each other”

Which means infection in one may well ignite outbreaks of many thousands

That will come w more disease and death

Vaccination will prevent this

3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19
Measles cases may likely grow into the 1000’s

The TX measles outbreak continues

With “bubbles” of undervaccination getting bigger, we can expect outbreaks in one to catch on to the next

Igniting transmission that may catch and spread across the U.S.

cnn.com/2025/02/18/hea…
One of the most common tropes is that measles is fine & doesn’t cause damage…

This is highly inaccurate

Measles literally grows by infecting and killing memory immune cells. It causes loss to existing immunity creating vulnerabilities & acute damage that is often severe

2/
To discover the massive-stealth-impact measles has on immune protection against infections not associated w measles, we looked at what happened in populations after measles outbreaks swept through, decade after decade across nations…

What we found was astonishing…

3/
Read 19 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Important wake up call:

#H5N1 BirdFlu just sequenced by @CDCgov from severe Louisiana patient

Most important, the H5 virus mutated inside the single patient to gain an ability to bind human receptors in the upper respiratory tract

It takes just one…

cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotl…Image
This is exactly the type of thing we worry about.

The mutations developed anew in this patient have been linked to severe cases elsewhere

Thank goodness the patient didnt (as far as we know) spread to any people or wildlife but this is the real concern…

We must do better

2/
And what should we do… there are many things we (USGov) should be doing yet barely have:
Read 6 tweets
Oct 3, 2024
🧵 On Seasonality:
SARS-CoV-2 has "seasonality" as a contributor to transmission dynamics

People often refute it - So I made graphs and this thread

NOTE: Seasonality does NOT = "just a cold"
Many of worst viruses have seasonality

Transmission Dynamics ≠ Pathogenicity

1/Image
Image
Image
The first figure is Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels averaged across the whole United States

See the REMARKABLE stability in the winter peak

The peak happens in the exact same week each year

Additionally, the start up the upswing to the peak (triangles) is also consistent

2/Image
A common misconception is that "Seasonality" means "no transmission out of season"

That is NOT TRUE

Seasonal forces are those that drive predictable behavior - like a winter peak in the first week of each year

3/
Read 14 tweets

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