1/ Thread: The trick to own a stock for the long term
One of the most common mistakes in investing is to sell too soon.
I believe most of us will own the future 10 or 100-baggers at some point, but very few of us will actually realize the full return.
2/ Given that we all know almost every one of us will make this mistake, how can we prepare ourselves better?
One of my answers to this challenge is to deeply care about the business, its mission, and the success of its mission.
3/ If I don't deeply care about the business, I am convinced these are the stocks I am most likely to sell too soon.
4/ One of the stocks I own that truly tested this philosophy is $FB.
Following 2016 election saga, almost everyone in my circle was convinced $FB is source of all evil.
It really took me back to drawing board and I asked myself whether I deeply care about $FB's mission.
5/ "Facebook was not originally created to be a company. It was built to accomplish a social mission — to make the world more open and connected."
These were the first two sentences Mark Zuckerberg wrote in his letter to shareholders when $FB filed for S-1.
6/ The more I thought about it, the more it was clear to me that $FB indeed stayed true to its mission.
7/ It maybe difficult to believe, but my parents, who still live in a small city in Bangladesh, cannot google.
Guess what, they do have Facebook. They can post updates, upload images, and call me whenever they want.
8/ If I came to America just 30 years ago, it would cost my parents an arm and a leg to talk to me for half an hour. Video call was out of the question.
Now it's free.
9/ Facebook invested to make sure even my google-illiterate parents know how to use Facebook.
Most companies simply don't care. Facebook does because it's their mission.
10/ My sister-in-law (also living in Bangladesh) opened a business page on Facebook to launch her online shop.
A few months later, someone from Facebook Singapore contacted her to suggest her some best practices on advertising on Facebook.
11/ When I heard about it, I realized how Facebook is trying to minimize friction and transfer knowledge from the developed world to even the bottom of the barrel.
12/ After a few quiet nights, I came to the conclusion that Facebook's mission is incredibly important and I do want to live in a more connected world.
I felt I deeply care about the mission myself.
13/ Without question, Facebook faces incredibly difficult challenge.
Making the world more open and connected itself is a herculean task, and to do it without the unintended consequences is perhaps an impossible task.
End/ I don't ignore Facebook's fallibility or shortcomings. I acknowledge and understand Facebook needs to do better.
But I consciously decided to endure the pain of owning $FB as I believed (and I still do) that the mission is indeed too important.
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"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."