Shravan Venkataraman Profile picture
Oct 4, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Guys, learn about negative and positive skew in trading and strategies. From yesterday's post's comment section, it looks like most people are ignorant about skew. It will do you so much good to learn about it and use the knowledge to your advantage. Start with Taleb's books.
@nntaleb and his "AntiFragile" "BlackSwan" books deal with exactly this. So many ignorant comments yesterday, like "only someone who is unprofitable would say that a consistent trader will blow up". Read that whitepaper I had attached, and educate yourselves.
My post wasn't a sour grapes tweet, but a famous quote from trading floors. High win rates are often associated with negative skew strategies which have tail issues associated with blowing up. Attempting trading as a profession without the basic knowledge about this is imprudent.
Also, it would help with a thing or two to understand that mathematically speaking, a statement being true doesn't necessarily mandate that a statement's converse being true. Just because I said consistent traders have higher odds of blowing up, doesn't mean the converse is true.
So many comments from people thinking they are highIQ and intelligently commenting went "so, an inconsistent indisciplined unprofitable trader will end up profitable and make windfall?"

No wonder with this kind of perception and lack of understanding most traders fail.
If you're going to survive in trading, you're going to learn what possible ways you could get screwed in the market. The first place to begin with is to understand what a skew is, how it works with trading strategies, how it can work for or against you. EDUCATE YOURSELF.

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More from @theBuoyantMan

Mar 16, 2023
One of the major risks in the SIP and buying index funds philosophy:

There can be 2-3 decades of net zero or negative returns, but somehow nobody even cares about that.
I am not saying we shouldn't have SIPs or purchase mutual funds.

But accepting the programming these MF companies and portfolio advisers are preaching (allocate to equity % acc to your age).
Given the restrictions around foreign investments, we have a significant home country risk.

Everyone believes India is a growing nation and stocks and index will go up only over next 1-2 decades.

No one stops to think about what if they are wrong.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
I came to Jaipur for work. I didn't resist having to learn Hindi.

If Marwari was spoken by everyone, I'd have learnt Marwari.

If it was another state, another language, I'd put in effort.

I won't be entitled saying "i am giving you business, you speak Tamil".
For my line of work, there are very few places I can work in - Mumbai, Gurgaon, etc.

Call it luck, I got my job for my line of work in Jaipur only.
If I wanted to be a Software Developer, I'd probably have chosen to be in Chennai or worst case go to Bangalore.

(I don't like Bangalore btw, worst city to live in with the traffic and poor city/roads/airport planning)
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
One major thing I have come to realise over the last couple of years:

Those who promote a single asset-class or single instrument *fully* systematic trading are scamming you or misleading you into thinking it will work over the long term if you stick to the system.
This is more applicable to those breakout style systems that intend to do trend following.

By nature, trend following is a way to capture the right tail.

If you look at trend following CTA portfolio over last few decades, you'd see that equity isn't a major part.
They allocate to equity/indices only as a form of diversification.

The reason single asset/instrument trend following doesn't work for very long is a factor of efficiency.
Read 35 tweets
Feb 5, 2023
This is going to be a full review thread on the OBAGE DT-31 model home theater tower speakers.

Been using it for a week, and "Blown Away" is an understatement.

I checked sounds through different modes (3.5mm jack, optical, bluetooth, etc.)
Main purpose I bought is for use through optical cable from TV.

But now that I have seen and heard this speaker - I'd say the quality over bluetooth connection is mostly in-discernible to a normal listener from the optical output.
These were the settings I tested with. Full bass and treble, 55% volume roughly.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 29, 2023
Was looking for home theater speakers - that would play multiple roles - for TV, for bluetooth music listening, and for movies (on different devices.

Had shortlisted a few, and a friend suggested to check out this brand *OBAGE*.

Got this DT-31 model. Two words - Blown Away.
I'll post an extended review with proper videos after using it for a week or two.

But the first day trial - movies, dialog, music - classical, vocal driven, edm, etc., blew me away.

At only 50-60% the sound fills a 20x20 room.

Took a few videos for my friends on my phone.
And, the speaker is not yet set up to the configuration suggested by the company (woofers facing each other, bass and treble at full, etc.,).

So the quality of audio you listen in these videos aren't even 30% of the actual potential of the speakers.
Read 12 tweets

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