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AukeHoekstra Profile picture
@AukeHoekstra
Oct 4, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
I have two words for the Netherlands:

face
masks
Some (ofter traditional) experts maintain transmission is through larger droplets (propelled while sneezing etc.) and contaminated surfaces.

I think a 2nd and growing group of experts has the evidence to prove it's also (and probably largely) aerosols.
technologyreview.com/2020/10/02/100…
What does this mean?
It means you get it from inhaling the air that's exhaled by infected ppl.

When are you at risk?
Imagine persons around you are smoking. Would you breathe in lots of their exhaled smoke? Not safe. Go outside.

Talking/shouting/singing makes it much worse.
By the way: that aerosols play a role and thus that ventilation and masks are important (even when keeping distance) is hotly debated. This study even goes into how this 'disinformation that masks help' spreads like a virus. researchopenworld.com/how-misinforma…
But I think the previous publication is flawed and looking only to disqualify the 'heretics' arguing that aerosols play an important role too.

If only out of an abundance of caution I think we should take both groups of experts seriously.

One scientist sums up what that means:
Avoid
Crowding
Indoors, low 
Ventilation
Close proximity, lengthy
Duration
Unmasked
Talking/singing/Yelling

“A CIViC DUTY”
gisttree.com/reviews/covid-…
Btw: face masks are mandatory in France and Spain. So I should probably have used more words in my first tweet.

The point I want to make is that we should take the second group of experts (pointing to aerosols) serious. This also means wearing masks. And yes I hate them too.

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More from @AukeHoekstra

AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jul 9
With new batteries solar and wind are not only faster and cleaner, but also cheaper.

I'm estimating:
$0.08/kWh for PV+batteries
$0.07/kWh for wind+batteries

@skorusARK gives a good overview of current wisdom, but strongly declining battery prices change EVERYTHING
Image
I've recently written about how I was surprised I missed the enormous consequences of price reductions in batteries.

LFP cells are now $50/kWh and last 10 000 cycles.
That's $0.005 per kWh.

Say we double that to pack the cells and you are at $0.01/kWh.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!

Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Read 10 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 20
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).

Thread based on a free substack article I just wrote.
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-li…
Image
Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.

Image
The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook:
1) STEPS which is basically business as usual
2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational
iea.org/reports/batter…
Read 11 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 16
Batteries: how cheap can they get?

I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.

So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.

It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.) Image
Read 15 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 5
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.

Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?

Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.
Read 14 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 1
I wholeheartedly agree with @MazzucatoM that we should better evaluate tech companies contributions.

But the focus on energy use makes a mountain out of a molehill while we have bigger fish to fry.

I see computing as both a huge opportunity and an existential threat.
🧵
For me the focus on *how much electricity* an industry uses usually indicates an outdated focus.

We have to get rid of fossil fuels and the mantra is "electrify everything". Because electricity is the form of energy that is usually more efficient and that is greening rapidly.
Many people still can't wrap their heads around the fact that electricity from wind and solar is getting clean, abundant and relatively cheap while we have more than enough materials to make it happen.

IF you focus on datacenter electricity use...
focus on how green it is.
Read 15 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
May 25
California is entering phase 2 of something we will see worldwide:

Phase 1)
Solar+wind replace up to ~70% of fossil electricity

Phase 2)
Solar+wind+batteries replace up to ~90% of fossil electricity

Phase 3)
Solar+wind+batteries+eFuels replace 100% of fossil electricity

🧵
Phase 1)
Solar+wind can replace up to ~70% of fossil electricity

It depends on the solar/wind mix, proximity to the equator, grid interconnections, and demand but we are simplifying here.

This is the simple part: just turn off coal+gas when there is enough wind or solar.
But then you run into limits:
1) Solar and wind become worthless when there is an excess (which is increasingly the case)
2) Your grid might not be able to handle the solar or wind peaks
3) Daily demand fluctuations don't match solar+wind
4) Seasonal fluctuations in wind+solar
Read 18 tweets

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