The Univ. of Illinois (@Illinois_alma) has been hailed by many as a model of how we should handle testing.

Students are tested twice weekly, and anyone who enters a building must show a negative test.

Are their outcomes worth the cost?
2/10 I compiled data for 7 universities in Illinois along with data from their counties.

Of note is that UIUC's testing level is as much as 60x larger than the other institutions.
3/10 The theory promoted by many is that increased testing finds more cases and helps prevent the spread of CV19 in a community.

Thus more testing should result in less hospitalizations, less ICU issues, and less death in a community.
4/10 So does testing decrease deaths and hospitalizations in the colleges themselves?

“No”. Since there is a very small number of hospitalizations and no deaths from CV19 across many colleges, massive testing has no impact on student CV19 outcomes.
5/10 In fact, the case curves for the colleges all follow the same pattern regardless of their testing levels.

So even though UIUC tests at a per student level 60x greater than SIU, their curves are very similar.
6/10 Next, do testing levels impact hospitalization or death rates for the broader community?

Again, “no”. Comparing tests/student with hospitalizations/100k and deaths/100k in the broader county shows an R^2 value of no significance.
7/10 How about ICU headcount? Has testing helped stop hospitals from becoming overwhelmed?

Another “no”. There is no discernable connection between testing levels and local ICU headcount.

In fact, the college with the least amount of testing (SIU) has the lowest headcount.
8/10 And now for the cost

The test used by UIUC is one of the cheapest ($20/test). They have already spent $8 billion on testing.

If this level (9 tests/student) were replicated for the entire U.S., it would have already cost $3.9 billion

Imagine the cost after a full year
9/10 Beyond the financial cost, more testing, creates more false positives which leads to more students being unnecessarily quarantined.

The social/psychological issues caused by forced isolation are real and damaging. They should be avoided at all costs
10/10 In summary, increasing campus testing has no impact on keeping students or the community safe from CV19.

Increased testing does, however, cost millions; take up precious time/resources; contributes to a culture of fear; and quarantines healthy students.

Typo in this one. UIUC has already spent $8 million, not $8 billion. Thanks all for pointing this out. My copy editor was out to lunch!

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More from @OBusybody

7 Oct
1/6 There is a lot of media hyperventilating about Wisconsin because their hospitalizations are up.

The thing is, Wisconsin's recent rise merely puts them at the same level as neighboring "safe" states. Image
2/6 Well, maybe their ICU's are close to being overwhelmed?

Nope, the state doesn't appear to be near concerning levels. Image
3/6 But @GovEvers has said field hospitals will be opened next week, so there must be imminent danger, right?

Though possible, it's probably unlikely given how the "need" for field hospitals turned out in the past:
apnews.com/article/virus-… Image
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
1/5 Here is a case study on Covid-19 privilege and politics.

City: Urbana, IL
Population: 42,000
CV19 % positive: 0.6%
CV19 Hospitalized: 2
Poverty Rate: 27.3%

The Decision: No in-person classes until 2021:
2/5 By any metric Urbana is safe to reopen given their testing levels and low positive %/hospitalizations.

Also, they need to reopen:
“It troubles me that we’re backing off of in-person attendance when these truancy rates are way beyond what we’ve experienced in the past,” Image
3/5 Urbana's poverty rate is 16.4% higher than the state average; many families need in-person class

“I know we didn’t hear from very many of those families in our public statements, but I hear from them quite often — parents who are begging us to bring our kids back to school” Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
These are the researchers who often get lost in the noise of Twitter. Their important work at times runs counter to the accepted Covid-19 dogma and thus does not get amplified.

Read their work, share it with others, and seek out more. Image
2/6 @mgmgomes1
Gabriela found the potential herd immunity threshold for CV19 and could be much lower than predicted. Her research was rejected because it could impact public policy and influence a relaxation of strict CV19 lockdown mandates.
3/6 @WesPegden
Wes and others proposed age-based CV19 mitigation strategies given the small impact CV19 has on younger populations.

This would allow schools to open and younger populations to live relatively normally while protecting vulnerable groups.
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
1/7 This isn't an isolated incident.

There is a crisis of loneliness/depression in our elderly population and it is caused by poorly thought out lockdown policies that value CV19 prevention over everything else.

We've know about this issue for months:
2/7 Oct 1st: Elderly Hardest Hit By Covid-19 As Lockdown Loneliness Impacts Mental Health
3/7 Sep 9th: “People are really distressed, particularly the elderly,” said Bolden. “They have been cut off and they’ve been made to feel vulnerable when they didn’t feel vulnerable before.”
Read 7 tweets
29 Sep

People that haven’t followed the CV19 panic closely may wonder why so many are skeptical about the mainstream narrative that is parroted daily by many leaders and news outlets.

This thread provides 5 examples from just the past week: Image
Starting at the top level, there is consistent misrepresentation and often outright deception as @andrewbostom points out in his response to Fauci v. Paul:
In the face of obvious mistakes that lead to poor decision making (as shown by @alexanderrusso), media organizations still continue to push a narrative of panic and fear:
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep

Given the last 2 months have been a whirlwind of events surrounding college football and Covid-19, I decided to construct a super-sciencey (extra busy) graph to help explain what has happened.
2/5 I know what you’re saying, “Whoa OMB, that’s just TOO much science!!”

So here is a simpler graph that shows the most important trend:
3/5 You also probably noticed that “The Science” in the first chart seemed extremely variable; often changing from day to day.

That is because, unlike Research & Data, “The Science” is a term made up by politicians combing some of the things on which they primarily focus:
Read 5 tweets

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