Winter is coming!
If we do not get this virus under control now, we are in for a perfect and terrible storm
We are not taking the expected seasonality of this SEASONAL virus seriously!
Instead, we've assumed our efforts are responsible for decreased cases this summer...
1/x
If we do not get this virus under control now, we are in for a perfect and terrible storm
We are not taking the expected seasonality of this SEASONAL virus seriously!
Instead, we've assumed our efforts are responsible for decreased cases this summer...
1/x
I worry very much that people are confusing the fact that this virus has transmitted in the summer for it not being very seasonal.
This is a grave mistake and misinterpretation...
2/x
This is a grave mistake and misinterpretation...
2/x
The 'force of infection' of this virus is massive! Think of it like the momentum that the virus has to transmit
The huge number of susceptible people is what is allowing the virus to maintain transmission through the summer months - when other coronaviruses go to near zero.
3/x
The huge number of susceptible people is what is allowing the virus to maintain transmission through the summer months - when other coronaviruses go to near zero.
3/x
Mistaking ongoing transmission in the summer for a "less seasonal virus" is not smart. All evidence points in the other direction
Instead, continued transmission reflects force of infection 'going uphill'... which means that as winter sets in, we may see massive increases.
4/x
Instead, continued transmission reflects force of infection 'going uphill'... which means that as winter sets in, we may see massive increases.
4/x
This virus got out of control because of a handful of imports.
We now have literally 10,000's of cases in the US daily... all potentially ready to explode into massive outbreaks once the weather / other natural or social biology becomes optimal for spread.
5/x
We now have literally 10,000's of cases in the US daily... all potentially ready to explode into massive outbreaks once the weather / other natural or social biology becomes optimal for spread.
5/x
Meanwhile we're not acting now to stop it. We're barely acting to improve any semblance of surveillance. At same time we're saying - we must open back up.
Yes! But, one must come before the other - ideally it would be control first, open fully second, once we're ready.
6/x
Yes! But, one must come before the other - ideally it would be control first, open fully second, once we're ready.
6/x
We could have been much more ready now. But instead we are just giving the virus a major headstart at the very time when it has its guard down. that we are not taking advantage of it is going to be reflected in many more infections and deaths moving forward I fear.
End
7/7
End
7/7
People say we don’t have evidence of seasonality for this virus - and suggest seasonality may not even be a thing for a pandemic virus. That’s just wrong.
True we don’t have a lot of evidence for THIS virus - but we do it’s closest neighbors. That gets us far...
15/x
True we don’t have a lot of evidence for THIS virus - but we do it’s closest neighbors. That gets us far...
15/x
But while we don’t have evidence of seasonality in the northern hemisphere - of course... it’s not been a year yet - we can look to the southern...
16/x
16/x
In the South Hemisphere - not on equator - most nations with a lot of cases were in the clear until ~June. And then cases started. Some July. The dynamics and timing is quite different than North. Almost no outbreaks requiring shutdowns when North did - were all months later.
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