1. Read this with the recent @mattyglesias piece about how voters don’t actually believe GOP policies could possibly be as bad as Dem’s describe them, which was accurately conveying what their platform was.
2. The prime example comes from the 2012 elections, where a Dem SuperPAC called Our Priorities ran focus groups explaining that Romney wanted a massive tax cut on the upper middle class and wealthy that would be fiscally offset by masive cuts to Medicare.
Our Priorities found that most people in the focus group simply didn’t believe that a presidential candidate would be proposing something so reckless and unpopular. Only some kind of villain would do that. So they remade the ads to make Romney more villainous to give same facts.
The ‘Theory’ Obama & 2008 Dems were working with was that ACA was encountering a massive PR campaign against it when they were drafting it, but once it passed and was rolled out... ppl would like having dramaric improvement to US healthcare system and would reward D’s w/ votes
i.e., just pass the damn bill and people will see there aren’t ‘death panels’, their costs should drop, pre-existing issues now covered, plus a huge pot of federal funding to expand Medicare to low-income households. But R states got SCOTUS to agree to refuse Medicare expansion $
And now we’re in 2020 BonkersWorld where Trump is pretending to support pre-existing conditions despite supporting every GOP Repeal and Replace bill that scrapped it and is now trying to rush ACB into SCOTUS to kill ACA dead.

A lot of Trumpkins can’t believe that, so buy this
TL;DR a lot of ‘rational voter’ models fall on their face not because voters are dumb, but because there’s cognitive dissonance wrt to the party they have a strong partisan identity with promoting policies that are clearly against the interest of a majority of their voters.

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More from @Comparativist

11 Oct
Five of these USN A1B nuclear reactors going into the new Ford-class carriers would produce more power output than the Lamma Power Station total combined capacity

Each A1B = 700mw

USN hasn't had any nuclear accident on these reactors since the first one they built in the 50`s.
I suddenly have an image of Green Nuke Deal, wherein US offers soon-to-retire Ohio-class SSBN's retrofitted to convert tube space for more reactors and park underwater selling developing countries sufficient energy at cost.

Just lay an underwater cable.
That covers security and safety: it stays underwater. It's already armed with torpedo tunes akin to VLS that can launch almost anything. Have an LCS anchored nearby.

Crew it 5:1 with Dept of Energy contracters.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
1. random factoid: I'm trying to keep my long-term HK phone number, but transition to a prepaid plan. The cheapest plan our old/current telecom would offer w/o contract was HK$68 (9) for just text and calls.
2. First random non-Big Name shop I walked into when I had a free minute after this transition was called Sun. They were advertising 7gb for HK$95 ($11). I asked a prepay. Five minutes later I had month-to-month prepaid SIM for HK$105 ($13.54) with calls and text but 15gb/m
3. The catch? It was capped to 3 Mb/ps. 2-3x the clerk asked if I knew and understood this caveat. I asked what network they were using. CSL. One of the best networks in HK. Just capped to 3 mbps. 15gb for $13.50 a month.

How is that not enough to do anything but stream 1080p?
Read 5 tweets
8 Oct
hot take.

Come at me, cowards. Everyone knows pinyin is terrible because you've peaked at the alternatives. Yale Romanization of Canto is so clever it tricks English speakers into accidentally getting the tones (mostly) right without trying or knowing.
Let's look at @iingwen, @THoCPodcastAlt. Which of these systems most accurately produces the right pronunciation without training for an English speaker?

I vote MPS2 first, HYPY second last. Wade-Giles is even better. She chooses to use Gwoyeu. Image
Read 4 tweets
25 Aug
Brief thread on the differences between Kerry vs Bush and Biden vs Trump
Kerry was my least favorite D candidate in the primary. Dean and Edwards were trying to make 2004 a domestic policy election, but Dean (my fav) was derided as an ideological extremist for espousing a generic view that people should have a right to healthcare like education.
Edwards was a slick modernized reincarnation of 1992-era Bill Clinton. Not sure if ppl picked up on him sharing the same lax moral standards wrt to womanizing, but I thought he was guilty of being a bit too ahead of the curve in focusing on econ inequality.
Read 16 tweets
25 Aug
Cursed tweet. Banish the thought before it takes hold. Just remind yourself Trump’s ‘Katrina Moment’ came in the first term. While there’s parallels with the Iraq War and COVID, there wasn’t a clear consensus about the best way to extricate ourselves from the insurgency.
By 2004, there was a growing consensus that the invasion was Bad, but Team Bush could credibly argue that it had a lot of bipartisan support before it started. Recall Kerry “voted against it before he voted for it,” or the reverse. They successfully muddled blame.
I don’t even remember Kerry’s post-Invasion position on Iraq was. There was a raging insurgency, the GOP was basically pitching shooting their way out of it and not even anti-war critics like me thought it was responsible to withdraw US forces without trying to stabilize first.
Read 6 tweets
19 Aug
So one of my last ESL students in Shenzhen was a corporate sales exec for a Taiwanese company. They made laptop and desktop cooling fans. They were the top seller in the world in that niche category and every manufacturer bought from them at one point or another.
I asked him once to describe what it was like dealing with US manufacturers... the guy had a lot to say, starting with: “never buy an American brand computer except Apple. Buy Chinese or Taiwanese. They know what they’re doing, American biz execs are idiots.”
Read 11 tweets

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