Ideology Series: Methodology Report and Reasoning (Thread) Image

A county labeled as DemSoc votes for Democrats at the national/statewide level as of 2016/18, and votes for progressive/socialist candidates at the statewide level. These candidates include Sanders/Warren in the 2020 D primaries, and statewide progressives.
In early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the singular progressive margin must be above 10 points. Later in the primary schedule, in states like Illinois, all that is needed is a win in that particular county by either Sanders or Warren.
Another requirement in the early primaries (IA/NH) is that in order for a DemSoc label on a county, the combined progressive vote (Sanders/Warren) must outnumber the combined moderate vote (Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar). This is because some traits also fit in SocDem.
If there needs to be a tiebreaker between DemSoc and SocDem, a college or university in that area can make it DemSoc. Average age can also be a factor.

A Social Democracy labeling requires the county to vote for Democrats at the statewide level in 2016/2018, and the national level since at least 2004. It has to be over 50% of the vote for Democrats at the national level in 2016 as well.
Unless there is another overruling factor, black majority counties are labeled SocDem, as well as most hispanic counties that vote Democrat at the national level, unless they vote strongly progressive in primaries by a decent margin.
Primary vote does not factor into SocDem, it only factors into a county being labeled as Liberal or DemSoc over SocDem.
A SocDem label doesn’t have to factor in swing as long as it voted Democrat at the national level between 2004 and 2016. If it didnt, then it must have swung Republican in 2016 at least to be determined as SocDem. It has to at least vote D in 2012 and 2016.
SocDem is, just like all other ideologies except DemSoc, altered by swing at the national level between 2012 and 2016.

A Liberal ranking requires a county to vote Democrat at the national level in 2016 but not in 2004. It has to have swung D in 2016. It also requires a county to have voted D at the national level in 2016 with more than 50% of the vote if it didn’t vote D in 2012.
A Liberal county could not have voted for Sanders or Warren in the 2020 D primaries, and it can’t vote for progressives in statewide primaries either. This can be overruled if it is a Hispanic county that also swung D by a large margin in the 2016 general.
The reason for this is that most hispanic voters in places like Texas and California voted for Clinton in the 2016 primaries, and voted for Sanders in 2020. This means they aren’t solidly progressive on economics.

A Populist county ranking requires for it to have either flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in the 2016 general election, or for it to have voted D both times but swing R by a 30 point margin.
A county can also get a Populist ranking if it voted for both Romney and Trump, as long as it voted for Romney by less than 50% in 2012, a plurality.

A LibCon rating requires a county to have either voted for Republicans at the national level in 2016 with less than 60% of the vote, or swung from R to D in 2016 if the Democrat (Clinton) still had less than a majority of the vote.
It also must have swung leftwards in 2016 for it to be ranked as LibCon. It is also marked LibCon if it voted for Rubio in the 2016 R primary, or Kasich in states outside of Ohio.

For a county to be ranked as Conservative, it must have voted for Republicans at the national level since 2012. Primary vote does not matter, but LibCon and RW Populist can overrule it.

Same goes for swing, RW Populist and LibCon can overrule it, but it does not have prerequirements of its own.

A Right Wing Populism ranking requires a county to have voted R at the national level in 2016 and 2012, and swung by a large amount (generally 20 points) Republican in 2016.
RW Populism can also be given to a county if it voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 R primary by a large margin, depending on how early in the primary schedule the state is, the necessary margin could differ.
And that’s the method. All of these requirements can be overruled by input from commenters that I received during my individual maps of each state during the series over the last four months.

If you have any questions, feel free to comment or DM me!

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