Baba97 Profile picture
12 Oct, 35 tweets, 11 min read
2) it the link is below:

Final data will be different than raw and preliminary data. So far about 1,001 responses have been recorded

Erie and Beaver County were light. Going back out this evening to get more responses

As well as Bucks Richard reached
3) more Independents around the state than the Sienna/NYTs poll which only did certain regions favorable to Democrats

Raw data was D+9-D+10, 2016 was D+3 and 2018 was D+5

Independents are dead even. Once the poll is weighted for Independents it will most likely be PDJT +3
4) Allegheny County is not that good for Biden. Fracking is a major issue. Biden will carry Allegheny PDJT 35.7% versus Biden 55.7% (similar to 2016)

Philadelphia suburbs 50.4% Biden vs PDJT 37% that is about what it was in 2016
5) 9.2% undecided Jorgensen getting 3.4%. NYTs had Biden’s advantage margin at 35%

PDJT is killing it on Election Day voting while Biden is killing it on VBM polling

Republicans - 8% have voted already, 26.8% plan to vote before Election Day, 65% will vote on Election Day
6) Democrats - 21.6% have already voted, 46.9% plan to vote before Election Day, 32.5% will vote on Election Day

Independents - 17% have already voted, 27.6% plan to vote before Election Day, 54.8% on Election Day

Green County is going to PDJT by over 20%
7) @Nate_Cohn had it 2:1 Democrats (it took Richard 3 days to get an adequate sample). Luzerne, Lackawanna and Monroe three counties combined is 52% PDJT vs 44% Biden. PDJT is now winning Chester by 2 points

Burks County down a little for PDJT (Biden +7).

Richard thinks it
8) be Biden +2 to +3 (within the margin of error of 3.1%). ***Leaners are going to heavily to Trump. Richard believes he would pickup about 3 points (they are currently considered undecided)

Biden has to win back Bucks and Chester to win
9) Philadelphia will be 12% to 14% of the vote (the current poll has the county at 18.7%of the vote). The Philadelphia suburbs will be about 20% of the vote. Trump is down 14% he lost by 13% in 2016.

Early voting against polls (Robert Barnes does this). Early voters on Democrats
10) side are the ones that respond to polls. TargetSmart is keeping track of the data using the voter file. The NYTs polls released today. In MI there should be a 3:1 advantage and 5:1 to Wisconsin in early voting. Michigan and Wisconsin are dead even. Polling is BAD!
11) Don’t look at the past early voting for a comparison. PA early voting is only 4.5% of the votes so far. Cambria County had a 64% to 29% in favor of Democrats leading up to the presidential primary, by Election Day it had more of a Republican lean.
12) Turnout variable groups is what Barnes looks at as a predictor. 65+ will vote at 70%+. Early voting doesn’t matter with that age group.

Age - youth vote should show up in EV if you believe the poll. 14.2% right now in PA. Down from 2016 which was 16%. Barnes says the youth
13) vote it is down everywhere

Barnes likes to look at Race. Two groups in particular; black vote share and white working class

Voter profile in EV is not showing any signs of a never vote. In a non Covid election you would see a 20% to 30% increase in Early Voting. In this
14) election it should be 40% to 50%. It is only 10% right now in all votes

MN a little below expectations in EV

Black vote and youth vote in NC is below 2016

ND and SD is unique this year because of VBM which is new to both states.
15) Barnes said both states have no big Senate races or Governor races. Robert wanted to look at the data to see if Rs are over or underperforming especially with working class whites. This is what he found:

SD - 19% R lean

ND - 47% R lean

These percentages bode well for PDJT
16) Big Norwegian vote for PDJT in both states (they tend to vote like Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin) Norwegians normally don’t respond to polls

Polish - 53% to 40%
Italians, Scottish Irish, Germans are favoring PDJT
French - 60% to 40% for PDJT
English - PDJT is down a
17) little to Biden

Top issues

1) Economy - 33% PDJT is leading
2) Coronavirus - 25% (ticked up a it from last poll) Biden is leading 51% - 34%
3) Healthcare - Biden is leading 52.3% - 36%
SC low single digits - 50% - 46%
Trade - PDJT is leading by 7%
18) Immigration - PDJT is leading by 45% to 42%
Terrorism/Foreign Policy - PDJT is leading
U.S. China Relations - Trump is leading

When issues are weighted, policing, crimes and safety is close to but it is behind several points to Coronavirus and Coronavirus is below
19) Healthcare

Should ACB get a confirmation hearing - 49.4% yes / 39.2% no

Turnout - Gallup asks are you paying close attention Barnes said that the gap between 65+ and 18-29 age group is a predictor for what it would be for the election.
20) the gap according to Gallup is currently 33% (youth turnout according to Robert will be the lowest since 2000)

White working class are the most enthusiastic (30-60 years of age)

Richard shared that once he is done with polling PA the elec will most likely be:
21) Ds - 42%
Rs - 39%
Is - 19%

The vote share in 2016 in PA was Men 47% vs. Women 53%

Right now in PA it is Women 51% vs. Men 49%

Richard after running the data during the show now believes the 18-29 year old vote share could fall to 12% - 13%
22) In 2016 the polling in PA didn’t go down to HRC +3 until October 25th / she was always up 6% before 

Shy vote is PA is significantly worse than what it was in Florida 

Another areas of interest for Robert in the Gallup poll is the question “Are you in better financially now
23) than 4 years ago” has been a perfect predictor (Trump got 56% / more yes versus no has always won)

Robert shared that registration data is showing Philadelphia will have a lower percentage of the final vote 

NV youth vote has gone down by 10% since 2016

Young voters have
24) told the NYTs they would vote early and yet they are down 

Major voter registration shifts predicts that Party will do better than the prior election (Rs Republicans advantage has been massive in NC, FL [biggest registration gain ever] and PA)

No Democrats has won a state
25) election since Obama when it was 560,000+

Robert loves to look at what has been happening in the last 6 months in voter registration leading up to an election (Trump is on pace to register 200,000 in FL vs. 80,000 for Democrats / older voters are trending Republican in the
26) last 6 months)

NC - Republicans have over 115,000 edge in the last 6 months

NV - Republicans have the edge / older voters are trending Republican in the last 6 months / major shift to Republicans

PA - has flipped 3:1 in favor of Republicans in the last six months
27) Richard shared that in PA Ds 54.7% to Rs 65.2% very enthusiastic to vote

At this point in the show Richard shared that the margin was tightening (Biden - 46.9% to 44.6 for PDJT

Center County - Biden leads by 3% (same as previous poll)

Bucks County - Biden is doing a
28) little better but Richard thinks it is because to many liberal Italians (red flag)

2 points in favor of Trump in Philadelphia suburbs HRC won it by 13 points (this change occurred as Richard was running his analysis)

PDJT doing a little worse in rural areas 

29) believes Detroit and Philadelphia will be down in total votes. He thinks Trump will run 5 to 10 points better outside of Philadelphia and the surrounding areas and Allegheny.

14% undecided in Erie right now (it is even) / Richard believes that 14% is heavily leaning to PDJT
30) Robert thinks Cambria County will break big for PDJT

Richard shared that in the final 2 weeks in 2016, MI, WI and PA were breaking to PDJT

Younger voters and seniors are the most undecided right now in PA
31) Richard believes that the shy Trump vote absolutely exists

In the PA poll he shared that 64.5% of respondents strongly believe that people are lying

Trade - Do you support the use of tariffs - 47% support 21% oppose / NAFTA a lot of unsure 2:1 when they answer it in Trump’s
32) favor

Trump is overtaking Biden in Monroe

Working class is 55% for PDJT vs. 35% for Biden (includes all races)

30-60 will have the biggest shift of the vote share this year according to Robert

Seniors will have the same turnout that they had in other presidential
33) elections

White working class will be 65% to 35% for Trump (double digits more will vote in 2020 than 2016)

Robert’s bet is Trump to win the election 

Arizona is next / Richard is moving PA funding to it / still needs to raise some more

You can contribute in the links
34) below:

Contribute to Public Polling
35) ME:

I am so excited that during the last week leading up to the election we will have ACB confirmed which will cause their Monster to go nuts across the country for voters to see and the Advance Estimate for the 3rd Quarter will be released on October 29th.

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More from @Baba9773

14 Oct
2) takeaway from the poll that has Biden up 2.4% in PA is that I am really surprised by the crossover vote. PDJT was only getting 9.1% while Biden was getting 9%. The last time Richard polled the state the crossover was 14.9% for PDJT to 7% for Biden.

The Imdependents margin
3) remained the same with PDJT winning by ~ 5%. Richard also had a D+5 margin.

In 2016 according to CNN’s exit poll it was D+3. Richard believes it was more like D+4 or D+5.

The Republicans gained nearly 200,000 more registered voters since 2016. Many came over from
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
2) petrified that starting on Monday, the entire focus will be on the Supreme Court and the ACB hearings. The 15th is the 3rd day of the hearings. They would love to have the debate take it off the news.

They also are petrified that Biden’s refusal to say whether he is for
3) packing the courts will remain at the forefront. Especially his BS answer from a few days ago. They can’t control the Moron from Hawaii, Kamala and Booker making a spectacle out of the hearings. Going after ACB’s religious beliefs while her 7 kids are sitting right behind her
Read 8 tweets
9 Oct
2) good handle on the state.

Look what he shared on a Pew Poll that came out in August about how voters intend to vote in MN.

Democrats need to really be concerned with the VBM totals. PDJT was smart to pull ad funding and to save it as we get closer to Election Day when his
3) voters plan to vote.

Once again the youth vote that @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 swear by is not there in Minnesota. Larry called this over a month ago and all the data is pointing to him being absolutely right!
Read 6 tweets
8 Oct
2) over 140 million. I actually am beginning to think it won’t reach the 2016 total. All their BS polls are based on an increase of 30% totaling 160 to 180 million.

I can’t wait to hear the BS excuses after November 3rd. They will never admit that Coronavirus and their reaction
3) to it actually destroyed them.

No door-to-door knocking because it would be to dangerous

Close colleges and universities from attending classes (full remote instead)

VBM because otherwise you will die! Their in person voting will be greatly reduced.

Jane Fonda thinks
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
2) was released a month ago.

Here is what he shared about PA:

14.9% crossover vote for PDJT from Democrats
6.9% crossover vote for Biden from Republicans
+2.6% margin with Independents
He believes the electorate in 2016 was more likely D+4 or D+5 rather than than the D+3
3) that was reported from the exit poll. The registration advantage was D+11 than. At this point in time the D advantage is D+8.1.…

As of 10.5.20 the current registration data is:

Ds - 4,168,900 (46.9%)
Rs - 3,451,514 (38.8%)
Is/O - 1,277,325 (14.4%)
Read 8 tweets
8 Oct
Here is the News Roundup for 10.8.20:…
1) Giloo shared the following response on the news roundup thread:

Flep, I pulled this from comments on the referenced article. I thought you could appreciate it.…

“…Biden is indeed polling far stronger than Trump across the board, in key states, and in
2) key demographics. …”

I got my masters in Math statistics (never used it went into IT). However one of the first thing’s they drilled into my head is you must have a “representative sample” for any poll to have a predictive nature. Being retired I asked via Email for the poll
Read 9 tweets

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