I received lots of pushback (including some pretty nasty comments) on my tweets re. the most recent “Nobel Prize” in economics.
I believe that most comments reflect two entirely different views of economics: what it is and what its objectives are.
Rather than engaging in the methodological debate let me help you understand my views by giving examples of what are the big economic issues today--
--which a big prize should acknowledge.
Not so much to give these people money (they are rich anyway) but as a signaling device so that young economists should study topics that matter to people’s wellbeing in the entire world, and not minor issues.
Minor issues already matter to the rich and those who study them will be well rewarded anyway.
I would avoid mentioning topics that I most care about, and when I mention some people by name they would not be the ones with whom I agree 100%.
Ok, let’s start with a huge topic that stares us in face. We have 40 years of the most extraordinary increase in income for the largest number of people ever. Do we know what propelled China’s growth? Perhaps not fully, but there are people who have been writing about it.
They might disagree among themselves, but let’s hear from them. Did, for example, any Chinese *ever* write anything to explain this extraordinary development?
For when we ignore this biggest issue of all, we are --as indeed we seem to be-- in the world of Nobel in literature. At the time when Tolstoy, Joyce and Proust were publishing, the Nobel prize went to… Sully Prudhomme. Yes, Sully Prudhomme (check it out).
Lets go further. Who are the economists who highlighted how privatization might lead to crony capitalism & oligarchy in Russia? Should not they be singled out—as they spoke against the current, and against the popular wisdom at the time and were proven right.
I will mention here Stiglitz (who already got his Nobel, so that's not another nomination) but who was the only person whom I have heard explicitly warning against what happened afterwards. And I know there were others too.
Or people who made us understand how a whole socio-economic system works? The understanding of socialist economics was never the same after Janos Kornai’s works. Isn’t this a big topic: how a system under which 1/3 of mankind lived and worked functions? Not worth highlighting?
The origins of the Industrial Revolution. You might say, who cares? But that’s wrong: if we do not understand how England took off, can we understand how growth that lifts millions of people out of poverty occurs?
There is a fierce debate raging among economic historians on the issue. It is important to bring up the participants. Let us hear them.
Was the growth of capitalism made possible thanks to slavery?Don’t we want to know if capitalism could have emerged w/o servile labor or not? There are many people writing on that. Does welfare of some depend on subjugation of others? What do economists say? Is there a trade-off?
Move to the present. Is CHN destroying Western middle classes? Or it's technology? The topic was opened up by Ricardo 2 centuries ago & still does not have a definitive answer. Do we want to hear what is the current (empirical) thinking? There are insights from US, France, Mexico
How about the monopoly nature of today’s capitalism? Does it reduce everyone’s welfare and make the monopolists control the political process? Does it undermine both competition and democracy? There are many people writing on that too. Shouldn’t they be highlighted?
Or do intellectual property rights condemn to poverty and deaths (today especially) millions in less developed countries? How did IPRs evolve over the past two centuries? What do we gain by enforcing property rights and what do we lose? Isn’t that a big topic?
I could produce at least five similar big topics whose better knowledge may help reduce poverty for many people in both the global South and the global North. And make us understand our present and the past better.
The point I want to make is this: Economics is a social science. Its aim is to make us understand the world and make people’s lives (materially) richer. The work that should be singled out is the work that does that—in a big way.
Quesnay wanted to make France richer. Smith wanted to spread the benefits of the Commercial Revolution to the rest of the world. Ricardo was concerned by the destruction of the engine of growth. Marx wanted to end the class system.
These are the founders of economics. They asked fundamental questions. We should follow them.
Consider income composition in socialism and developed capitalism. They are fairly similar. The differences are in the lack of income from K, greater family-related transfers, and quasi-absence of direct taxes (other than proportional flat wage taxes) in socialism.
Then extremely low skill premium of 3-5% vs 18-70% for West European countries (and even more in the US).
Then, much less redistributive social transfers. While UK/Ireland had very pro-poor transfers, socialist countries had flat transfers. Thransfers depended on family composition and were about the same regardless of underlying income.
This is the second year that in my teaching I spend two hours discussing income inequality under socialism, the way it was, not normative stuff. The most important thing is to tell students that socialism is not capitalism with less inequality. The logic of the system was entirely different.
The salient points.
Nationalization of capital & end of incomes from K reduces inequality directly.
Wage compression: very low skill premium. Explained both by free schooling and ideological preference for less skilled workers.
Relatively large (but not larger than in modern capitalism) social transfers directed toward families and old-age persons.
Large but almost totally flat direct taxes, mostly in the for of a wage tax.
After reading @pseudoerasmus excellent thread on the evolution of devt thinking and the role of institutions and @ingridharvold, Kesar, Dutt paper on the same topic (both published within the past 48 hours) I asked myself the following Q: Why did I like AJR early work so much & then lost interest?
I liked both their "Origins.." and "Reversal..". The reason is that I found in these papers the themes with which I was already familiar from reading neo-Marxist literature, including S Amin and G Arrighi. But I always felt dissatisfaction with that literature's "sporadic" use of empirical evidence.
What AJR provided was the same story with much more data and modern methodology. So it was a big step forward.
The problems started afterwards: their inability to explain communism (political inequality but economic equality), and the turn away from understanding of capitalism
We shall never know if the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was intentionally targeted or not.
Here are some arguments why I find accidental bombing highly unlikely.
-This was the only building targeting mistake in 78 days of very precise bombing.
-The ostensible target was a financial institution (bank giving loans, for, among other things, old SRFY's sales of armament). But that bank no longer worked; Serbia was bankrupt; it was not giving loans to anyone.
-It is the only fin institution having been ostensibly targeted.
-The Chinese emb & the Bank 2 very different buildings. Not only when you face them. Even if you have a 2-dimensional map, emb was facing, at an angle, towards the river, a solitary building w/a fence. The bank is 150m away across a 6-lane highway, adjoining another building.
In 1974, it made sense to speak of the Three Worlds, as among themselves, and treating China that never belonged to the Third World apart, they accounted for 98% of world GDP (in PPP terms).
Capitalist core 62%
Socialist countries 13%
Third World 24%
China 2%
But now we have a different situation. The capitalist core has shrunk despite its geographical extension to E Europe. The socialist world has disappeared. The 3rd world is more important thanks to the rise of Asia.
Core 44%
China 22%
Politically heterogen. periphery 31%
RUS 3%
In political sense, we have a unified West with 44%, China with ½ of that amount, politically heterogeneous periphery with almost 1/3 of global GDP (but its political power is low because of that heterogeneity) and Russia that is obviously trying to punch above its weight.