Branko Milanovic Profile picture
Oct 13, 2020 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
(Long thread--but worth reading)

I received lots of pushback (including some pretty nasty comments) on my tweets re. the most recent “Nobel Prize” in economics.
I believe that most comments reflect two entirely different views of economics: what it is and what its objectives are.

Rather than engaging in the methodological debate let me help you understand my views by giving examples of what are the big economic issues today--
--which a big prize should acknowledge.

Not so much to give these people money (they are rich anyway) but as a signaling device so that young economists should study topics that matter to people’s wellbeing in the entire world, and not minor issues.
Minor issues already matter to the rich and those who study them will be well rewarded anyway.

I would avoid mentioning topics that I most care about, and when I mention some people by name they would not be the ones with whom I agree 100%.
Ok, let’s start with a huge topic that stares us in face. We have 40 years of the most extraordinary increase in income for the largest number of people ever. Do we know what propelled China’s growth? Perhaps not fully, but there are people who have been writing about it.
They might disagree among themselves, but let’s hear from them. Did, for example, any Chinese *ever* write anything to explain this extraordinary development?
For when we ignore this biggest issue of all, we are --as indeed we seem to be-- in the world of Nobel in literature. At the time when Tolstoy, Joyce and Proust were publishing, the Nobel prize went to… Sully Prudhomme. Yes, Sully Prudhomme (check it out).
Lets go further. Who are the economists who highlighted how privatization might lead to crony capitalism & oligarchy in Russia? Should not they be singled out—as they spoke against the current, and against the popular wisdom at the time and were proven right.
I will mention here Stiglitz (who already got his Nobel, so that's not another nomination) but who was the only person whom I have heard explicitly warning against what happened afterwards. And I know there were others too.
Or people who made us understand how a whole socio-economic system works? The understanding of socialist economics was never the same after Janos Kornai’s works. Isn’t this a big topic: how a system under which 1/3 of mankind lived and worked functions? Not worth highlighting?
The origins of the Industrial Revolution. You might say, who cares? But that’s wrong: if we do not understand how England took off, can we understand how growth that lifts millions of people out of poverty occurs?
There is a fierce debate raging among economic historians on the issue. It is important to bring up the participants. Let us hear them.
Was the growth of capitalism made possible thanks to slavery?Don’t we want to know if capitalism could have emerged w/o servile labor or not? There are many people writing on that. Does welfare of some depend on subjugation of others? What do economists say? Is there a trade-off?
Move to the present. Is CHN destroying Western middle classes? Or it's technology? The topic was opened up by Ricardo 2 centuries ago & still does not have a definitive answer. Do we want to hear what is the current (empirical) thinking? There are insights from US, France, Mexico
How about the monopoly nature of today’s capitalism? Does it reduce everyone’s welfare and make the monopolists control the political process? Does it undermine both competition and democracy? There are many people writing on that too. Shouldn’t they be highlighted?
Or do intellectual property rights condemn to poverty and deaths (today especially) millions in less developed countries? How did IPRs evolve over the past two centuries? What do we gain by enforcing property rights and what do we lose? Isn’t that a big topic?
I could produce at least five similar big topics whose better knowledge may help reduce poverty for many people in both the global South and the global North. And make us understand our present and the past better.
The point I want to make is this: Economics is a social science. Its aim is to make us understand the world and make people’s lives (materially) richer. The work that should be singled out is the work that does that—in a big way.
Quesnay wanted to make France richer. Smith wanted to spread the benefits of the Commercial Revolution to the rest of the world. Ricardo was concerned by the destruction of the engine of growth. Marx wanted to end the class system.
These are the founders of economics. They asked fundamental questions. We should follow them.

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More from @BrankoMilan

May 7
We shall never know if the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was intentionally targeted or not.
Here are some arguments why I find accidental bombing highly unlikely.
-This was the only building targeting mistake in 78 days of very precise bombing.
-The ostensible target was a financial institution (bank giving loans, for, among other things, old SRFY's sales of armament). But that bank no longer worked; Serbia was bankrupt; it was not giving loans to anyone.

-It is the only fin institution having been ostensibly targeted.
-The Chinese emb & the Bank 2 very different buildings. Not only when you face them. Even if you have a 2-dimensional map, emb was facing, at an angle, towards the river, a solitary building w/a fence. The bank is 150m away across a 6-lane highway, adjoining another building.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 14
In 1974, it made sense to speak of the Three Worlds, as among themselves, and treating China that never belonged to the Third World apart, they accounted for 98% of world GDP (in PPP terms).
Capitalist core 62%
Socialist countries 13%
Third World 24%
China 2% Image
But now we have a different situation. The capitalist core has shrunk despite its geographical extension to E Europe. The socialist world has disappeared. The 3rd world is more important thanks to the rise of Asia.
Core 44%
China 22%
Politically heterogen. periphery 31%
RUS 3%
In political sense, we have a unified West with 44%, China with ½ of that amount, politically heterogeneous periphery with almost 1/3 of global GDP (but its political power is low because of that heterogeneity) and Russia that is obviously trying to punch above its weight.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
When in my recent talk in Edinburgh I claimed that Adam Smith could be seen as "a man of the left" (these terms btw are not used in the Visions of Inequality) this was based on the following:
Smith's extraordinary strong critique of how the rich have acquired their wealth (plunder, corruption, collusion, trade companies, monopoly, colonialism). That critique is often stronger than Marx's critique of "primitive accumulation".
Smith's view that of all social classes, only the interests of employers are opposed to the social interest because advancement of society implies a decrease in the rate of profit, and hence lower income for them. Netherlands is often cited there.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 23
My new paper "The three eras of global income inequality 1820-2020, with the focus on the past 30 years" is just out in World Development. Access is free for 50 days.
Here is the link:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
It is an important paper. Not only because it gives calculations of global inequality over 200 years (following Bourguignon & Morrisson seminal work) but because it looks at the political implications of the three eras: the rise of the West, the Three Worlds & the rise of Asia.
It then focuses on the past 30 years. Global inequality went down by ~10 Gini points mostly thanks to China. But this is not the full story. The convergence happened in total numbers becase Asian countries are so populous, were poor ad grew fast.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 9
Much has been written about China's train system. But not enough. I think that it will be seen, with the system of canals and the Great Wall, as one of the most important contributions of China. One can see it as a proof that China excels in network industries.
The speed, punctuality and cleanliness of the system are absolutely remarkable. But even more striking to a visitor is how apparently simple and well-organized is everything so much that one cannot but wonder why other countries have not done the same thing.
Building no-nonsense train stations that look like airports, laying down the tracks, producing the trains, planning the exact number of cars by journey in function of ticket sales, building in redundancies, controlling the speed are not tasks requiring some new superb knowledge.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 10, 2023
Somebody asked me for book recommendations re. the classics, capitalism etc. (I am not exactly sure what b/c it is hard to judge what people are interested in from just a couple of sentences). Nevertheless, I sent a list of books. First, those published in the past 3-4 years...
Darrin McMahon, Equality
David Lay Williams, "The greatest of all plagues"
Glori Liu, Adam Smith's America
Marcelo Musta, The last years of Karl Marx
Krishnan Nayar, Liberal capitalist democracy
Fritz Bartels, The triumph of broken promises
Ian Kumekawa, Pigou: The first serious optimist
Kevin Andrson, Marx at the margins
Jamie Martins, The meddlers
Dannis Rasmussen, The infidel and the professor (Hume & Smith)
Michael Heinrich, Marx and the origin of the modern world
Read 6 tweets

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