I received lots of pushback (including some pretty nasty comments) on my tweets re. the most recent “Nobel Prize” in economics.
I believe that most comments reflect two entirely different views of economics: what it is and what its objectives are.
Rather than engaging in the methodological debate let me help you understand my views by giving examples of what are the big economic issues today--
--which a big prize should acknowledge.
Not so much to give these people money (they are rich anyway) but as a signaling device so that young economists should study topics that matter to people’s wellbeing in the entire world, and not minor issues.
Minor issues already matter to the rich and those who study them will be well rewarded anyway.
I would avoid mentioning topics that I most care about, and when I mention some people by name they would not be the ones with whom I agree 100%.
Ok, let’s start with a huge topic that stares us in face. We have 40 years of the most extraordinary increase in income for the largest number of people ever. Do we know what propelled China’s growth? Perhaps not fully, but there are people who have been writing about it.
They might disagree among themselves, but let’s hear from them. Did, for example, any Chinese *ever* write anything to explain this extraordinary development?
For when we ignore this biggest issue of all, we are --as indeed we seem to be-- in the world of Nobel in literature. At the time when Tolstoy, Joyce and Proust were publishing, the Nobel prize went to… Sully Prudhomme. Yes, Sully Prudhomme (check it out).
Lets go further. Who are the economists who highlighted how privatization might lead to crony capitalism & oligarchy in Russia? Should not they be singled out—as they spoke against the current, and against the popular wisdom at the time and were proven right.
I will mention here Stiglitz (who already got his Nobel, so that's not another nomination) but who was the only person whom I have heard explicitly warning against what happened afterwards. And I know there were others too.
Or people who made us understand how a whole socio-economic system works? The understanding of socialist economics was never the same after Janos Kornai’s works. Isn’t this a big topic: how a system under which 1/3 of mankind lived and worked functions? Not worth highlighting?
The origins of the Industrial Revolution. You might say, who cares? But that’s wrong: if we do not understand how England took off, can we understand how growth that lifts millions of people out of poverty occurs?
There is a fierce debate raging among economic historians on the issue. It is important to bring up the participants. Let us hear them.
Was the growth of capitalism made possible thanks to slavery?Don’t we want to know if capitalism could have emerged w/o servile labor or not? There are many people writing on that. Does welfare of some depend on subjugation of others? What do economists say? Is there a trade-off?
Move to the present. Is CHN destroying Western middle classes? Or it's technology? The topic was opened up by Ricardo 2 centuries ago & still does not have a definitive answer. Do we want to hear what is the current (empirical) thinking? There are insights from US, France, Mexico
How about the monopoly nature of today’s capitalism? Does it reduce everyone’s welfare and make the monopolists control the political process? Does it undermine both competition and democracy? There are many people writing on that too. Shouldn’t they be highlighted?
Or do intellectual property rights condemn to poverty and deaths (today especially) millions in less developed countries? How did IPRs evolve over the past two centuries? What do we gain by enforcing property rights and what do we lose? Isn’t that a big topic?
I could produce at least five similar big topics whose better knowledge may help reduce poverty for many people in both the global South and the global North. And make us understand our present and the past better.
The point I want to make is this: Economics is a social science. Its aim is to make us understand the world and make people’s lives (materially) richer. The work that should be singled out is the work that does that—in a big way.
Quesnay wanted to make France richer. Smith wanted to spread the benefits of the Commercial Revolution to the rest of the world. Ricardo was concerned by the destruction of the engine of growth. Marx wanted to end the class system.
These are the founders of economics. They asked fundamental questions. We should follow them.
I mentioned most of this (informally) at a Europa conference in Madrid several days ago.
Europe should stop living in the 1990s. There is no End of History anymore. Things have changed.
EU's economy is declining but it continues to dispense gratuitous lessons to the world. Latvia teaches China--a country that has performed the greatest economic miracle in history--what it should do.
In foreign affairs, EU results are negative to disastrous.
It started the war in Libya and left the country in permanent ruin & civil war.
Most of EU members participated in the illegal war on Iraq which, like the Russan war against Ukraine, was in clear violation of the UN charter. It is bizarre that they now complain.
EU has produced no plans or blueprint to end the war in Ukraine. It simply criticizes Trump's.
It has willfully ignored the war in Gaza and de facto supported mass ethnic cleansing and worse (the G word).
It has done nothing to reduce conflicts in Africa, a continent to which it is the closest.
It has gratuitously, through its propaganda, made relations with China worse.
Every couple of years, a fundamental misunderstanding between the East and the West of Europe reappears re. the WW2. In the occupied Western parts, life went on as before. Sartre continued writing & his plays were shown in theaters. Simone kept on sipping coffee at Les deux magots. Literary soirees were celebrated. People went to their jobs. Some food items became unavailable, and people listened to Radio London. Life in Paris, Brussels, Copenhagen, Amsterdam went on as before except for occasional raids on Jewish people.
In countries that were Nazi allies, things were even better: Italy, Austria (Anschluss), Finland, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Vichy France: things were broadly normal. Many more joined Nazi militia and Waffen SS than resistance.
In countries, that were neutral but in realty pro-Nazi (Sweden, Switzerland, Spain) life went on normally too. In a really neutral Portugal, even more so. My favorites are restaurants in Barcelona that opened up in 1943.
So that was the war in the West.
In the East, it was entirely different. It was a war of extermination. Not only because of the Holocaust (esp. in Poland & USSR), but also because of 3 million Soviet POW who were starved to death in iron cages...
A strange disease has taken hold of the left: to bemoan loss of wealth of billionaires, The billionaires' commander-in-chief has decided to cut to size other billionaires. He has driven the stock market down. It is understandable that other billionaire and their think-tanks decry such a policy. But why should the left do the it?
Esp. if you know that in the US and other advanced economies 60% of households have 0 or trivial amount of income from financial wealth. Moreover, financial income for the other 40% is so heavily concentrated that the losers are only 3-4% of the population--the richest ones. The measure is clearly super progressive.
(My next Substack on this theme.)
Percentage of country’s population that has zero or negligible annual income from capital ownership
What were the great revolutions I witnessed in my life?
The first & really big was the Iranian revolution. I had many Iranian friends. They were all anti-Pahlavi. But quickly they split into two or three camps. The revolution had global resonance: I remember that my father disagreed with my mother over it. In Belgrade! They had no dog in the fight. But it was big.
Reagan's revolution was also big. He upended things. Pushed back against the USSR that foolishly invaded Afghanistan the year before & not only went into a war it could not win, but challenged the basis of the Cold War order. Reagan was a Cold Warrior who wished for peace.
The third was Solidarnosc & Walesa. They not only came suddenly from nowhere but created a 10-milkon strong workers' movement in opposition to a (seemingly) workers' state. It reshuffled all ideological stereotypes. It was impossible to classify as left or right.
Consider income composition in socialism and developed capitalism. They are fairly similar. The differences are in the lack of income from K, greater family-related transfers, and quasi-absence of direct taxes (other than proportional flat wage taxes) in socialism.
Then extremely low skill premium of 3-5% vs 18-70% for West European countries (and even more in the US).
Then, much less redistributive social transfers. While UK/Ireland had very pro-poor transfers, socialist countries had flat transfers. Thransfers depended on family composition and were about the same regardless of underlying income.
This is the second year that in my teaching I spend two hours discussing income inequality under socialism, the way it was, not normative stuff. The most important thing is to tell students that socialism is not capitalism with less inequality. The logic of the system was entirely different.
The salient points.
Nationalization of capital & end of incomes from K reduces inequality directly.
Wage compression: very low skill premium. Explained both by free schooling and ideological preference for less skilled workers.
Relatively large (but not larger than in modern capitalism) social transfers directed toward families and old-age persons.
Large but almost totally flat direct taxes, mostly in the for of a wage tax.