They’re so opposed to early voting that they are allowing people to vote a month before the election???
The problem with this whole line of reasoning is that if lines are long today people can come back tomorrow

Or the next day

Or the next

Or the next

And so on

For an entire month.
Early voting wasn't an option *at all* a few decades ago, and yet.... that was not voter suppression!

You now have WEEKS in which to vote!

There's a line?

Boo hoo. Try again next week.
Lines *on election day* are somewhat concerning. That's the "last chance" to vote, and if it's the only time available then exigent circumstances could prevent someone from voting.

Lines on early-voting days when you've got almost an entire month of days to choose from.... nope.
"Working people can't just come back tomorrow"

They absolutely can! Polling places are usually not too far from where they live, and on their way to/from work they can swing by and eyeball "is there a line around the block or not."
The idea that there should be enough polling places for 100% of the electorate to vote without a line A MONTH BEFORE THE ELECTION is stupid and also misunderstands what an election is.
Why not say we should be able to cast our votes in September?

Why not August?

Why not go ahead and cast a straight-ticket vote for the next election the day after the election?
Simple: elections occur at fixed times and places to ensure that the electorate all have access to similar information about candidates, and that the election represents public opinion at a specific, binding point in time.
Early voting may be non-contradictory with that if it expands access to people who *cannot* vote at that time, or if it is only expanding the window of time by a little bit.
Georgia has lines for early voting.

DC hasn't begun early in-person voting yet AT ALL! Is DC suppressing black votes? Neither has Colorado! Nor Hawaii! Nor Maryland!
Georgia allows vote by mail, they've got early voting going (many states don't have it at all and many more haven't started it yet), and the only reason there's a line is because it was 1) the first day, 2) on a holiday, 3) with social distancing requirements to space it out
I get that people have in their mind that all polling places should have *checks notes* literally *infinite capacity on hand at all times* but actually I don't get that perspective it's stupid and wrong.
Yes, many states are doing various things for access. For example, Georgia extended early voting and eased rules on mail-in ballots.
Obviously yes you want equal footing.

But equality occurs in a context of limited capacity. It is not unreasonable for polling places to be distributed based on past voting behavior, as that's the best predictor of future voting behavior, i.e. lines.
"Not a lot of people vote in this neighborhood" is a plausible reason for lumping it in with other neighborhoods for setting up polling places. I don't think there's a constitutional requirement that polling places be directly population proportional.
Now, if polling places are selectively closed which have large numbers of black voters historically, such that the average black voter votes at a precinct which is both further from home and has a larger historic number of votes cast at it than white voters, that's an issue!
But in principle, 1) everybody should have a polling place "within some distance" and also 2) polling places should generally not have more than "some number" of votes cast in their catchment area in prior elections
Optimizing these two criteria, which are prima facie fair, means 1) precinct size will be smaller and thus line shorter in rural areas, even if we consciously make polling places to equalize access. 2) in hi-density areas, main criteria for polling site placement will be crowding
That is to say, rural people will always drive 15 minutes to their polling place and never wait in line, and urban people will always drive a few minutes or even walk, but wait in line.
Now, if a change in polling locations results in a larger wedge in lines *and* distance, that's concerning! That'd be bad!

But lines aren't prima facie evidence of that!
Yes, but black voter participation rates are almost identical to white turnout rates! There's not a big racial wedge in participation!
The reason lines were long on Monday is because people did *not* take a day off: it was a holiday. On weekdays I'm pretty sure the line won't be that long.
I mean seriously people, we are the country that brought you Black Friday. Waiting in line is not a human rights violation.
Yes, you need some kind of comparative estimate, I'm sure will be done eventually.
*sigh*

Wait time is not the only factor! Distance to polling site matters too, regardless of waiting time AT the poll!

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More from @lymanstoneky

13 Oct
This is a good question! Does anyone have comparable data on number of polling places and voting lines across countries?
American turnout for elections is comparatively LOW, yet we appear to have uniquely long lines and delays.

What’s going on?

Are the delays the cause of the low turnout? Unrelated? What causes them? Fewer polling stations? More ballot items to consider?
Like do other countries just have 5x as many polling sites??
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
right, because overnight you'd just whip out all those voting machines and hire all those extra workers, that's totally a thing which would happen
Folks, we don't know how many people showed up to vote early in Georgia (or any other state).

If the number who showed up was 5x Day 1 of early voting in previous years, that's not the election officials' fault!
THE WHOLE POINT of early voting is to smooth out when voting occurs! The date of the election didn't move up to October 12th.

There is no principle which would require Georgia to accommodate *any unlimited number* of people who wanted to vote on October 12th.
Read 12 tweets
13 Oct
Whenever people say, "Lyman, OBVIOUSLy demographers understand there won't be a pandemic baby boom!"

I mean, UNFPA official outlets are promoting a baby boom narrative! philippines.unfpa.org/en/news/signif…
At the release for UNFPA's big global annual report in the Philippines, the media highlight was about how COVID-19 will cause a huge rise (25%!) in unintended pregnancies in the Philippines.

I haven't been able to figure out what that is based on in terms of data.
At about 26 minutes here the explanation starts. It's based papers published by Guttmacher and JHU, and back-of-the-envelope estimates of changes in contraception.
Read 12 tweets
12 Oct
I keep Lutheran in my bio mostly because it’s true but also a little bit because it helps ID people who are paid trolls who just grab random words out of your bio to use as pejoratives.
Lutherans do not have any meaningful political or ideological brand, globally or domestically. Indeed being milquetoast is practically the Lutheran political creed. And yet these trolls come out of the woodwork being like “WELL OF COURSE HE’S LUTHERAN”
If in your first interaction with a person on this hellsite you reference any part of their listed bio 99% of the time it means you’re the bad guy.
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
No— having every individual work in the marketplace is neither necessary nor desirable. We should not treat isolated individual career achievement as the end-all of mobility.

Just adjust for household size.
Also, for a lot of people, “I make more income but whereas my parents basically achieved their family goals, but I didn’t” doesn’t feel like upward mobility. Key to recognize marriage isn’t just a PATH TO upward mobility, marriage IS upward mobility for many people!
Pretty much any welfare function will treat total welfare as some function of leisure time and other variables so we should not prima facie assume differences in labor force participation we know are culturally related are necessarily “lack of mobility.”
Read 8 tweets
28 Sep
I think it's possible to say both "the US response has been very bad" and also "Progressives have been leaping at any comparison to make the US look bad because they basically feel embarrassed about America anyways and confirmation bias is strong."
It is in fact possible that the US response has been worse than it should have been and also that the European response has been worse than it should have been, and that pretty much "the response" was determined by..... let's say March 1.
Once the disease was widespread in many countries, as it clearly was by early March, it's not clear how much influence governments could really wield in terms of preventing a major death spike.
Read 17 tweets

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