Thanks, Meghan, for covering tonight's board meeting. I appreciated the opportunity to meet with concerned parents and teachers beforehand, and to lay out some of the facts surrounding the costs of school closures for the board.

References to statements I made follow (THREAD).
Count/list of Texas school districts who have announced an end to in-person learning, and selected statements from school districts which did so. Thanks @therealarod1984 for compiling and staying on top of this.
I made two references to independent studies of absenteeism in schools and the widening gap between students in affluent districts versus those in poor/impoverished districts. Here is the first, from the Dallas Morning News, covering 80 districts. dallasnews.com/news/education…
Here is the second, from the Los Angeles Times: latimes.com/california/sto…

"[S]urvey of 45 Southern California school districts found profound differences in distance learning among children attending school districts in high-poverty communities, ...and those in more affluent ones"
Brookings Institution thread which contains several of the articles I referenced. As I mention in the thread, Brookings is non-partisan but left-leaning, if anything.
Finally, this week's Nashville Scene piece, highlighting childhood sexual abuse during COVID. nashvillescene.com/news/features/…

"[O]ne girl ... used the pretext of needing tech support to go to her Nashville middle school and report her abuser to staff, who notified authorities."
In closing: Adults have always sacrifices to ensure the wellbeing and proper development of children. We must resolve to do so now more than ever.
This tweet should read "end to REMOTE learning." It's after hours, my apologies 🤦‍♂️ I think most of you got it.

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More from @malkusm

15 Oct
1/ I earnestly looked into this, because I wanted to know how they arrived at these results.

"[B]ased on predictive models, COVID-19 impacts could be lessened by up to 47% if a majority of people wear masks."

Oh, boy, predictive models? I thought we'd learned our lesson here.
2/ "Predictive model" here is a fancy way of saying "our results are based on parameterized inputs, not empirically observed data."

Still, let's give them the benefit of the doubt, shall we? Here's the paper. Let's dive in! ijidonline.com/article/S1201-…
3/ As expected, the model is based on parameters derived from other literature.
On masks:
"We chose a conservative non-medical mask efficacy, eM = 20%, within the estimated range for reducing disease transmission during interactions between susceptible and infected individuals." Image
Read 17 tweets
9 Sep
Hey, what ever happened to the "COVID kids develop Kawasaki disease" storyline that was used to terrify parents back in April or May?

Well, the CDC didn't forget - they published a report on August 4 on the... wait for it... *565* total cases in the US.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
Through September 3, there have been about 515K cases of COVID-19 in children.

There are roughly 55 million school-aged children in the US.

services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-…
So, to recap:

- Less than 1% of all school-aged children in the US have tested positive for COVID;

- Of those, about 0.1% developed Kawasaki-like disease (MIS-C);

- Of THOSE, only 1.8% (10 total persons) died.

So, I wonder why you never heard these numbers?
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug
Something that people have a hard time grasping:

Taking COVID-19 seriously and demanding transparent, accountable, science-based government are not mutually exclusive.

I'd demand answers to questions about our policy response even if the death toll were 100x what it is today.
Good public policy should:
- Properly assess the risk and the benefit of action
- Properly assess the cost of each action & weigh it against the benefit
- Be clearly communicated to the public, including specific goals
(ctd.)
- Be non-arbitrary (i.e. grounded in logic, facts, relevant data)
- Account for ALL stakeholders, i.e. all members of society (rich, poor, young, old, etc)
- Be re-evaluated regularly as part of a discussion involving the public (not by decree)
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug
Meet Steven Manzo, a tragic casualty of lockdown. A recovering addict who overcame so much, and had so much life ahead of him.

#RIPStevenManzo

Next time you advocate for the closure of a business, school, or other aspect of society, remember Manzo.

Then multiply his case by...
5,000: Roughly the increase in national overdose fatalities from March to May, based on these % increases above the CDC's 2018 baseline. washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07…
10,000: The estimated increase in breast & colorectal cancer deaths over the next 10 years due to missed cancer screenings. "This analysis is conservative," says the author, director of the U.S. National Cancer Institute. science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
Read 14 tweets
29 Jul
Let's take a trip down #SARSCoV2 memory lane, shall we?

Here's one of the big misses from early estimates which informed @IHME_UW modeling, and ultimately policymakers: "15-20% of those who contract [COVID] will need hospitalization," said Dr. Fauci.
As some started to realize that there would be no avoiding the virus here in the US, hospital capacity was the singular focus. It was never about suppression.

After all, we only have so many hospital beds, PPE, etc - we needed to "flatten the curve."
By March 6, we're approaching the critical days when the world began to change. We had compelling visuals on what it meant to "flatten the curve":
- Buy time
- Reduce peak health care utilization
- Prolong the epidemic at manageable levels
Read 17 tweets
28 Jul
COVID+ athletes have been big in the news recently. The Miami Marlins had an outbreak in the last 24 hours. It's the latest in a laundry list of news stories about athletes testing positive.

Should we be concerned?

You be the judge - here is the breakdown of symptom severity.
No doubt, in rare cases, COVID can cause health complications & lingering issues. This is the case of Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, who is experiencing lingering cardio issues. He's in the <2% of "Severe Illness" group (and <1% with lingering effects)
Far more common, though, are cases such as Russell Westbrook: Athletes who test positive are completely asymptomatic nearly 60% of the time - and that number is growing since May, as leagues return and regular testing is implemented. rocketswire.usatoday.com/2020/07/22/rus…
Read 9 tweets

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