Baba97 Profile picture
14 Oct, 10 tweets, 6 min read
2) takeaway from the poll that has Biden up 2.4% in PA is that I am really surprised by the crossover vote. PDJT was only getting 9.1% while Biden was getting 9%. The last time Richard polled the state the crossover was 14.9% for PDJT to 7% for Biden.

The Imdependents margin
3) remained the same with PDJT winning by ~ 5%. Richard also had a D+5 margin.

In 2016 according to CNN’s exit poll it was D+3. Richard believes it was more like D+4 or D+5.

The Republicans gained nearly 200,000 more registered voters since 2016. Many came over from
4) the Independents group. The fact that PDJT won Independents by +4 in 2016 and in two polls is +5 that Richard conducted, the margin basically remains the same.

Yet the crossover vote dropped by 5.8% for PDJT and went up by 2% for Biden since the time the last poll was
5) conducted over a month ago. I cannot explain that. What caused the President to lose nearly 6% of the crossover vote while Biden gained 2%.

Richard also said that Biden cut the President’s lead with rural voters in PA. I really wonder if they were completely truthful.
6) Did some of those registered Democrats say Biden but will vote for Trump? Did some of those Republicans say Biden but will vote for Trump? Data shows that respondents are afraid to tell pollsters the truth out of fear. Could this account for the dramatic drop in crossovers
7) for PDJT and the gain for Biden? Had the crossover remained at 13%, 14% or 15% and Biden’s at 6%, 7% or 8%, the President would be leading in the poll.

I would love to hear your thoughts?
8) ADDENDUM #1 One of the data points that really excited me was the fact that nearly 70% of Democrats plan to vote by mail while only 30% of Republicans. For the majority of the people voting by mail, this will be there first time.

Many ballots will be discarded because of the
9) Naked Ballot ruling made in mid September. Democrats anticipate that number could be around 100,000. A vast majority of them will be Democrat ballots.

You can read about the ruling in the article below:

inquirer.com/politics/elect…
10) ADDENDUM #2 a lot of Democrat registered voters were at the PA rally this evening!

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More from @Baba9773

12 Oct
2) it the link is below:



Final data will be different than raw and preliminary data. So far about 1,001 responses have been recorded

Erie and Beaver County were light. Going back out this evening to get more responses

As well as Bucks Richard reached
3) more Independents around the state than the Sienna/NYTs poll which only did certain regions favorable to Democrats

Raw data was D+9-D+10, 2016 was D+3 and 2018 was D+5

Independents are dead even. Once the poll is weighted for Independents it will most likely be PDJT +3
Read 35 tweets
9 Oct
2) petrified that starting on Monday, the entire focus will be on the Supreme Court and the ACB hearings. The 15th is the 3rd day of the hearings. They would love to have the debate take it off the news.

They also are petrified that Biden’s refusal to say whether he is for
3) packing the courts will remain at the forefront. Especially his BS answer from a few days ago. They can’t control the Moron from Hawaii, Kamala and Booker making a spectacle out of the hearings. Going after ACB’s religious beliefs while her 7 kids are sitting right behind her
Read 8 tweets
9 Oct
2) good handle on the state.

Look what he shared on a Pew Poll that came out in August about how voters intend to vote in MN.

Democrats need to really be concerned with the VBM totals. PDJT was smart to pull ad funding and to save it as we get closer to Election Day when his
3) voters plan to vote.

Once again the youth vote that @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 swear by is not there in Minnesota. Larry called this over a month ago and all the data is pointing to him being absolutely right!
Read 6 tweets
8 Oct
2) over 140 million. I actually am beginning to think it won’t reach the 2016 total. All their BS polls are based on an increase of 30% totaling 160 to 180 million.

I can’t wait to hear the BS excuses after November 3rd. They will never admit that Coronavirus and their reaction
3) to it actually destroyed them.

No door-to-door knocking because it would be to dangerous

Close colleges and universities from attending classes (full remote instead)

VBM because otherwise you will die! Their in person voting will be greatly reduced.

Jane Fonda thinks
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
2) was released a month ago.

Here is what he shared about PA:

14.9% crossover vote for PDJT from Democrats
6.9% crossover vote for Biden from Republicans
+2.6% margin with Independents
He believes the electorate in 2016 was more likely D+4 or D+5 rather than than the D+3
3) that was reported from the exit poll. The registration advantage was D+11 than. At this point in time the D advantage is D+8.1.

dos.pa.gov/VotingElection…

As of 10.5.20 the current registration data is:

Ds - 4,168,900 (46.9%)
Rs - 3,451,514 (38.8%)
Is/O - 1,277,325 (14.4%)
Read 8 tweets
8 Oct
Here is the News Roundup for 10.8.20:

wqth.wordpress.com/2020/10/08/10-…
1) Giloo shared the following response on the news roundup thread:

Flep, I pulled this from comments on the referenced article. I thought you could appreciate it.

zerohedge.com/political/seco…

“…Biden is indeed polling far stronger than Trump across the board, in key states, and in
2) key demographics. …”

I got my masters in Math statistics (never used it went into IT). However one of the first thing’s they drilled into my head is you must have a “representative sample” for any poll to have a predictive nature. Being retired I asked via Email for the poll
Read 9 tweets

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