1/ This event continues to be very high risk and will likely stay this way through the time of closest approach. Our system generates new conjunction reports 6-8x per day on this event with new observation data each time.
2/ Current risk metrics from our most recent CDMs:
Miss distance: 12 meters (+18/-12 meters)
Probability of Collision: >10%, scaled to account for large object sizes
Relative velocity: 14.7 km/s
3/ Shortly after TCA, we will have a direct pass of CZ-4C R/B over our Kiwi Space Radar in New Zealand. We have scheduled a search mode scan during this time to ensure we only see two objects as expected and hopefully confirm that no new debris is detected.
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🚨 We’re actively monitoring and analyzing the breakup event in #LEO involving a Chinese rocket body, CZ-6A. Our radar data indicates this event occurred on 6 August at ~20:10 UTC at ~810 km.
It resulted in at least 700 debris fragments and potentially more than 900.
1/ This event followed the launch of CZ-6A on 6 Aug at ~06:42 UTC and the deployment of 18 payloads.
These payloads are reported to be the first batch of satellites for the Qianfan communications mega-constellation.
2/ The image below shows a heavy distribution of debris in-plane (spanning over 1000 seconds) with the expected 18 satellites deployed, as observed by our radar in Western Australia.
At ~06:30 UTC today we observed a conjunction at 608 km between two non-maneuverable spacecraft: a derelict Russian satellite and an operational NASA satellite.
Miss distance = <20 meters
Probability of collision = 3 to 8% at TCA
1/ Why does this event matter?
This event is notable because it is rare. In the last two years, there have been only 6 events with a miss distance of < 20 m between two intact, non-maneuverable objects.
Plus, it would've been dangerous...
2/ The resulting debris of a collision between these two objects, COSMOS 2221 and TIMED, would've created an increased collision risk on a large portion of LEO but especially on nearby lower orbits used by large constellations and human spaceflight.
Members of our global operations team in the AIPAC region observed that the object missed a scheduled early morning pass over the LeoLabs Kiwi Space Radar on 8 May 2023 local time.
There were early indications that the spaceplane was likely to land.
After lowering its altitude by more than ~250 km on April 13, several smaller maneuvers were performed between 13 April – 08 May, including altitude changes and a small inclination change.
On April 13, we detected a large maneuver by Object 53357, the PRC’s experimental spaceplane.
This maneuver resulted in a decrease in altitude from 613 - 355 km.
Shown below: the previous orbit is in orange and the new one is in blue.
This new mission phase could indicate preparations for landing of the reusable spaceplane — or something new entirely.
Since the spaceplane launched in August 2022, we’ve observed multiple large maneuvers raising the object’s altitude — as well as repeated deployments, formation flying, and docking of a sub-satellite OBJECT J (NORAD ID 54218).
Two large, defunct objects in #LEO narrowly missed each other this morning — an SL-8 rocket body (16511) and Cosmos 2361 (25590) passed by one another at an altitude of 984km. 🚀⚠️ #SpaceDebris
1/ Based on our radar tracking data, we computed a miss distance of only 6 meters with an error margin of only a few tens of meters.
2/ It's important to note that this conjunction occurred in one of the "bad neighborhoods" we've talked about before: 950 - 1050 km. 🏚️