1) FL: the D VBM is in full swing. Right now, our extrapolations say that if they continue at the current pace, excluding Sundays, they would exceed what we think is their necessary floor of 650,000 by 55,000.
2) Now, before you panic, there are a couple of things. Evidence from OH is that the same phenomena there (incredibly fast start) has slowed. Yesterday was the first day in one sample county that R ballots exceeded D.

3) So my "at current pace" I don't think will hold.
4) I expect it will be close, but I think they will slow and come up short of their 650,000 number.

5) Second, realize all we know is that these are ballots that come from D or R requests. It says nothing about how people actually VOTED.
6) I always assume the worst, that is a D ballot is a D vote. But "muh polls," for what they are worth, say that of the black ballots, 12-15% will be crossovers for Trump. Likewise white Trump voters.

7) Rs have for the most part held their fire.
8) Everyone expects election day to be off the charts for Rs. (Remember, it won't be record-setting because there will be few Ds out on election day).

9) And, there is In Person Early Voting that starts soon.
10) There are two good reasons to think that despite this the trends are very good. First, the DemoKKKrat "voter modeling" firm, TargetSmart, has been showing very bad numbers for Ds in NC, MI, WI, PA, and elsewhere.

11) Last night they announced they are changing their model.
11) contd. In other words, "Fix this or you ain't gettin' paid." So look for them to suddenly be much more D friendly.

12) Yesterday Demented Perv Biteme's own campaign manager said the "race was closer" than the polls make it seem.
13 I speak Democratese fluently. I minored in Democratese at ASU. This translates as "Trump is ahead."

14) Now, I won't lie. The FL continued VBM DemoKKKrat surge concerns me. But I do think it's a high fever about to break. If it breaks anywhere short of 650,000 FL is over.

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More from @LarrySchweikart

16 Oct
Everything we measure is measured against 2016 when Trump WON FL, NC, OH, IA, MI, PA, WI.

So in these states, Ds have to do BETTER than in 2016. They also have to overcome rather significant (sometimes massive) registration shifts.
So when I give you a number like Ds are down 2% in three major deep blue counties in MI, it's

down. from. 2016.

It means they have to not only overcome that, but then overcome the margin of loss in 2016 as well.
If "byecomey" says Ds as 200,000 behind their NC numbers, . . . it means their "overcome" number now has become 372,000 (200,000 now plus beating Trump's margin in 2016).

So they need to beat 70,000 in PA, but also beat an additional 190,000 R registration gain since then.
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
Discussions w pollster Rich Baris & info from Bill Cahaly (two most accurate pollsters);
*Fl out of reach for Biteme (Trump now over +3)
*PA close, Trump down 2, but internals jiggly: Trump now up SIX with indies; up from 2016 with blacks.

My inference:
*Baris STILL not comfortable finding the "shy Trump" voter. Has inserted MULTIPLE questions (who will your neighbor vote for, have you ever felt intimidated about your beliefs, ect).

Love these guys buy my gut tells me Trump is slightly ahead. Baris says Trump was asked . . .
repeatedly by donor about PA and only said "we're doing good." Wouldn't commit to being "up" by an amount as he has with NV, AZ, NC, FL.

So we'll see.

OH is way, way out of reach for Biteme. 8 points min.

IA out of reach. Margin may be smaller but no way to bridge it.
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
1) I don't know Rudy Guliani. My sense of them is that, like Trump, he is a brawler adept at brass knuckles.

2) If I am right, and he is running this "op" on Hunter Biteme, the best is yet to come.

3) You NEVER lead with your best punch. You set the other guy up.
4) I'm guessing that Rudy's "hit" here was well timed and thoroughly planned.

5) I expect that he has MUCH more ammo.

6) The goal is to get the other side on record, off balance, on the "little" stuff.

7) Then comes the haymaker.
8) If I'm right, I expect to see the DemoKKKrats continue to react to issue "a" while Rudy has "b" ready to launch.

9) It WOULD NOT surprise me if Harris (Kampuchea) was taken off the campaign trail for reasons related to THIS, not just because she is toxic. In other words . . .
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1) The Hunter Biteme saga illustrates something I've (unsuccessfully) been trying to explain to some peeps on Twit, namely immigration & trade right now are NOT the issues.

They were in 2016, but I think virtually all the voters who wanted Trump to fix these . . .
1) contd . . . are pretty happy with the job Trump did on both. Right now, the nation has bigger, more immediate fish to fry.

2) Namely, this assault on America and the ideal of America itself. Part of this is the Biteme's have fully bought in to the "protected elites" status.
3) To them, America is merely a mechanism for getting them their money & status. It has nothing to do with the vast population of this country, where we are heading, or most of all the threats to it.
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
1) I know many of you have heard this over and over, but let me review the current state of the races:

2) Using the China Virus as a smokescreen, about six months ago the DemoKKKrats planned a scheme to steal the presidency through "late" vote counts after the election.
3) The process would work like this: step one was to terrify DemoKKKrat voters with the likelihood of infection if they voted in person. Step two was to get voters to begin submitting ballots by mail (VBM). Step three was to get the states to go along with "late counting" . . .
3) contd . . . virtually in perpetuity. Or, more accurately, "count til you win."

4) Either because of this strategy or because of Demented Perv Biteme's incredible incompetence, his campaign whiffed on the GOTV in person effort.
Read 15 tweets
13 Oct
1) A blast from the past. In 2016 I was providing daily data analysis from FL, AZ, NC, IA, OH to Team Trump, specifically to Bannon's team. Every day I'd send him a memo with the latest numbers, but more important where they were compared to 2012.
2) So on the Monday before the election I gave them the last FL early vote-in-person + absentee numbers: Cankles was up 88,000.

This was really good news. Zero had been up over 150,000 at that point in 2012 and won by just 74,000. This predicted a narrow Trump win.
3) These #s were known, they were "in" but not officially posted til early on Tues after the counties had officially counted & recorded them.

4) But when they appeared, Team Trump called me panicking: "OMG we're down big in FL." I said no you're not. You're actually UP 15k.
Read 5 tweets

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