Kyle Lamb Profile picture
15 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I'm writing a deeper dive but here is the shocking number that should be headline news: 97.9%

97.9% decrease of confirmed flu cases to WHO FluNet/GISRS from weeks 15 through 40 from 2019 to 2020.

Last year, 119,737 confirmed flu cases (9.32% positive)
This year, 2,457 (0.18%)
This is WORLDWIDE
If you think this is on account of less testing, it's not.

Last year: 1,285,346 tests through weeks 15-40
This year: 1,393,276 tests same weeks
One final disclaimer: obviously only a fraction of flu cases are recorded through testing. And even fewer are participants in the WHO flu surveillance network. Still, a 97.9% year over year decease since calendar week 15 is just completely insane.

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More from @kylamb8

16 Oct
98%.

What if I told you that confirmed flu surveillance across the world has dropped year over year by 98% since April?

This is the deep dive story with data, graphs and charts showing how the world's most consistent nemesis has (almost) completely vanished.

-1- Image
We began hearing reports back in May the flu was nowhere to be seen in the Southern hemisphere, which was the start of when cases usually peak. I had theorized as early as June and July that perhaps Covid was keeping the flu away.

-2-

Though just a theory I floated at the time, probably earlier and more consistently than most, it's one that now shares some scientific backing.

Check out this study published Sep. 4 in The Lancet that corroborates the theory with some precedent.

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…

-3- Image
Read 21 tweets
14 Oct
Going back to normal offends the fear mongers. Now they must try to discredit it.

time.com/5899432/sweden…
Read 10 tweets
14 Oct
Here is what a second wave looks like in areas that have already been through the gauntlet. A thread using WHO graphics of daily cases (blue marks) to daily deaths (black line). Please exercise discretion if you're sensitive (hah)

AUT, BEL, DMK, FIN ImageImageImageImage
FRA, DEU, ISL, IRL ImageImageImageImage
ITA, NLD, NOR, PRT ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Full pivot. After a lot of reflection, prayer and many signs and circumstances pointing this direction in my life, I need to continue this path of data analysis full time if I'm to have time to do it. I'm creating a Patreon for supporters to donate.
-1-
patreon.com/beyondthefold?…
I set the Patreon tier at $3. People can tip any amount above that if they wish. It's recurring but if you want to make a one time donation, you can set it to that amount and cancel after. I'll post more in depth analysis on there daily plus my weekly podcast, etc.

-2-
I'm only looking to supplement my income. If the spirit moves and I'm blessed to make more than that, I will be donating 20% above my expense threshold to charity. I really never planned or wanted to monetize this, but if I'm going to have time, I need to be fully devoted.

-3-
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
Hospitalizations can't and won't go down too much more than they are. A thread to explain why @ScottGottliebMD is trying to scare people with drivel that is out of context.

-1-
First disclaimer, it's true the hospital numbers have appeared to have leveled off. But as long as our testing strategy with sensitive tests remain the same, the hospital numbers can't and won't go too much lower. Testing impacts both CLI and inpatient positives.

-2-
When we look at CLI (Covid Like Illness), a measure of percent of ER visits containing either a confirmed lab test, confirmed diagnosis or symptoms, two regions: HHS 1 (New England) and HHS 2 (NY/NJ) are both at levels seen retroactively in first week of Oct., 2019 (1%).

-3-
Read 7 tweets
25 Sep
It is undeniable, IMHO, that there has been an increase in spread in the upper Midwest. This is specifically in WI, the Dakotas, MT, WY, etc. This is not just on account of detection of college cases, but PCR/CLI have risen too. This does not mean a ton of deaths will follow.

1 ImageImageImageImage
Remember those of us following both seasonality & infection thresholds have been calling this for months. Places that have not been hit hard are still susceptible to further spread. It's not an accident this is hitting a specific geography (seasonality) & places not reaching HIT
Here is a visual of CLI in HHS region 8 (CO, UT, WY, MT, ND, SD)

You can see a definite tick up the past 7-10 days in symptomatic ER visits and confirmed diagnoses. Image
Read 5 tweets

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