It's hilarious watching Trump steamroll the churlish Savannah Guthrie.
Meanwhile, over on ABC, George Stephanopoulos is gently tongue-bathing Joe Biden's scrotum.
The rheumy eyed Joe Biden slowly mumbling through his memorized answers.
"Who is this woman haranguing the president?"
Biden is desperate to not appear senile. He's filibustering these poor people as proof of his non-senility.
These Hispanic women are hot for El Caudillo Trump.
That brother wants his TrumpBux.

Make it happen, Mr. Preznit, I needs ma TrumpBux.
I don't remember Joe Biden being such a complete bore. He always seemed like an abrasive asshole who liked to mix it up with citizens and service people.

Now he's just blathering on and on.
That black woman in the background of Trump nodding her head.

"Uh huh, Mr. Trump, you right!"
Savannah Guthrie standing up for the IRS. Thank goodness someone is.
Someone better wind Biden up again, his spring is running down.
Trump tying ACB's appointment to how they treated Kavanaugh is very good.
Grandpa Joe looks like he's reflecting on a long life of public service and graft, not running for president.

Low energy.
Can't believe NBC is not bringing out a big hook and yanking that black woman off stage. She's winning black votes for Trump.
Nodding while Trump says he's done more than anyone but Honest Abe. LOLOLOLOLOL!
Granny is hot for Trump!
Granny? No, Bubbie Yenta is hot for Trump!
Thumbs up from the sista!

It's official Trump wins reelection in a landslide!

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More from @JayFiveK

16 Oct
1/ State polls are much harder to conduct than national polls, because of smaller populations and different compositions of those populations.

Everyone admits that one of the hardest groups to poll are white working class, hard to poll because they don't answer their phones.
2/ Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest have tons of white working class making them exactly the places most likely to have non-response bias problems favoring Trump.
3/ The pollsters supposedly fixed the white working class response problem after 2016, but their 2018 state polls were almost exactly as wrong as they were in 2016. Sean Trende at RCP did an analysis and this was the result...

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…!
Read 16 tweets
14 Oct
My guess is that response rates have crashed. In 1997 rates were around 35%. In 2016 they were at 9%. Who knows what they are today. (I've heard sub 5%)

If certain groups of people (i.e. working class whites) don't answer the phone, your poll has a representativeness problem.
There are some academic articles on this subject. This is a good one from 2018.

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Here's another from Pew in 2017.

pewresearch.org/methods/2017/0…
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
They never pan to the assembled masses in Toledo. There are no crowd shots from this "drive-in rally".

How many people showed up? Someone must have taken some photos? Let's see the size of the audience.
Oh, crap, it's worse than I expected.

"More than 50 vehicles were jammed in the UAW parking lot for the drive-in gathering. Anyone who had the audacity to drive a foreign car was relegated to parking across the street."

"jammed" LOLOLOLOL!

dispatch.com/story/news/pol…
Oh, Lord, I'm dying.

"jammed"

Biden's drive in rally in Toledo. Feel the energy, yet?
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
1/ I've said this before, Biden's whole strategy is to focus on the Rust Belt.

He needs to win Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He needs all four of them.

If he loses one, he's done for.
2/ Beyond flipping those Rust Belt states back to the Dems, he's got nothing else.

If he thought he could win in Florida, Texas, North Carolina or Georgia, he'd be hitting those states hard. He's not.
3/ But, now he's got a bigger problem, Trump is starting to peel off Nevada. So, he and Karmelo had to rush out to Nevada, today, to try to shore up his support in that state.

He did a drive by in Arizona, (see the enthusiasm below) But NV was the real focus of the trip
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Oh no! Trump has run out of money!

There’s no way he can beat Hillary’s bazillion dollar ad buying in swing states!

Game over, man! Game over!!!
Yes, Trump has less money than Biden. But, didn’t seem to help Hillary last time.

Perhaps there’s a limit to the effectiveness of political ads? Perhaps a point of diminishing returns. Is it possible that the five millionth ad is not really that effective? (Hint: yes)
Trump is now spending big money on Get Out The Vote efforts in key states. Remember how he got so many votes in an uncontested primary? (Doubled Obama’s 2013 total.)

That was GOTV practice run. Door knocking & personal contact.
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Trump should have been a release valve for the anger and frustration of ordinary Americans. That's what populism has historically been in America, a release valve.

But the Derp State and the media worked overtime thwarting Trump and his mostly middle-of-the-road policies.
2/ Trump is not a radical figure, historically, his policies are not out of the mainstream.

But the reaction to him was so over-the-top and the demonization of his followers so complete, that the populist sentiments of the American people continue to be bottled up.
3/Because Trump was thwarted, as bad as the anger and frustration were in 2016, it's now a thousand times worse.

The populist sentiment, which usually dissipates after a few years, is now stronger than ever.
Read 12 tweets

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