1/ I remembered a joke that has many versions (the one I knew was about mathematicians, but similar). I think it applies well to many of the debates we are having in 2020:

"A group of wealthy investors wanted to be able to predict the outcome of a horse race...
2/ So they hired a group of biologists, a group of statisticians, and a group of physicists. Each group was given a year to research the issue. After 1 year, the groups all reported to the investors. The biologists said that they could genetically engineer an unbeatable racehorse
3/ ...but it would take 200 years and $100 billion. The statisticians reported next. They said that they could predict the outcome of any race, at a cost of $100 million per race, and they would only be right 10% of the time.
4/ Finally, the physicists reported that they could also predict the outcome of any race, and that their process was cheap and simple. The investors listened eagerly to this proposal.
5/ The head physicist reported, "We have made several simplifying assumptions. First, let each horse be a perfect rolling sphere . . ."


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More from @maestro_rayo

18 Oct
1/ The way I see it there are 4 "schools" on how to respond to this crisis (with a lot of levels in between of course):

1. #ZeroCovid (eradication)
2. Suppression until vaccine
3. Mitigation in parallel to vaccine and treatment development
4. Do nothing Image
2/ 1 and 4 are extremes. They both have serious flaws. On the one hand humanity has only eradicated very few diseases with very particular characteristics.

3/ On the other hand "do nothing" is not ethical, we must ethically strive to minimize damage caused by the pandemic.

What to do then?
Read 17 tweets
17 Oct
1/ Quisiera ampliar un poco este comentario, que tuvo un efecto inesperado, aunque también generó un debate interesante.

2/ Primero que todo, el tono del mensaje no fue precisamente el deseado, más que proclamar una verdad absoluta o sabotear algún esfuerzo, mi intención era dar un mini-resumen de algo que pienso en un contexto más grande.
3/ Y aclaro que aquí no quiero posar de "experto", es un análisis personal, como ciudadano interesado en el debate sobre el manejo de esta crisis. Esta crisis es transversal a toda la sociedad y más que un debate estrictamente científico, es un debate social y ético.
Read 27 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Age-targeted mitigations vs general mitigations. Who should isolate? On a paper by @WesPegden and @ChikinaLab.
2/ We’ve come a long way in our C19 journey, we have learned so much. We recently just learned how this pandemic affected people differently by age...we are all wiser now. If only we knew…
3/ Well, not exactly. Relatively good IFR estimates by age groups were available since March (Verity et al.) and were shouting something: the difference in IFR between ages 10 and 80 was 1000x.

Read 16 tweets
29 Sep
In case you are wondering, the real Maestro Rayo was one of Colombia's most famous artists:


I'm unrelated to him.
My name here makes tribute to the great satire song by @Ariasvilla and @karltroller where Rayo gets sick at a cocktail/exhibition party at an 80s disco.

I have no clue if this actually happened but the song is a great summary of (upper class/snob) society in Bogotá in the 80s. I think it hasn't changed that much.
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
1/ La estrategia Sueca se puede resumir así: proteger a los vulnerables, dejar que los menos vulnerables socialicen dejando colegios, restaurantes y bares abiertos.

2/ Esto tiene sentido porque desde Marzo sabemos que la tasa de fatalidad (IFR) es entre 2 a 3 ordenes de magnitud inferior para grupos menores a 60 años (los menos vulnerables).

3/ Suecia necesitó 600 UCIs en el pico y ha convergido a una fatalidad general de 600/millón, que es un orden de magnitud inferior a lo que había sido predicho por modelos tempranos (y pobremente calibrados).

Read 13 tweets

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