SecondOpinion Profile picture
16 Oct, 10 tweets, 4 min read
Fact: Covid ≠ Flu
Conspiracy: Flu =Covid

Where is the flu?
(4)
"The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020"

Where is the flu?

economist.com/graphic-detail…
(5)
No more Influenza Surveillance in Switzerland.

"Flu and Covid reporting to be combinend"

Where is the flu?
(7)
Where is the flu in Argentina?
h/t @realmilkfan
(9)
#WhereIsTheFlu in Australia?
(10)
#WhereIsTheFlu in New Zealand?

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More from @DaFeid

9 Oct
Hello @MLevitt_NP2013, do you know mortality.org? Besides providing interesting raw data they are providing a very powerful visualisation tool as well.
mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

For example, Austria
1/x
orange = excess
blue = deficit

You can adjust the following parameters. I tend to use:
1) show other years true
2) death rate total (pop.adjusted)
3) sex total
4) all available years as an index
Now, if you are intersted if excess death are following the pattern of Covid death, you can simply overlay a curve from ourworldindata.org.
It's neither useful to evaluate Covid Data Quality nor to compare absolute numbers.
It's really just a "pattern comparison".

3/x
Read 21 tweets
7 Oct
The Great Barrington Declaration (@MartinKulldorff @SunetraGupta und Dr. Jay Bhattacharya) setzt sich für einen gezielteren Schutz ein.

Es gibt immer mehr Co-Signees, u.a. Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi.
Auch mit einem deutschen Wohnsitz kann unterzeichnet werden.
gbdeclaration.org/die-great-barr…
Aktuell bereits über 70.000 Unterstützer.

Wenn mich jemand in 20 Jahren auf die Barrington Declaration anspricht:
"Ja, ich habe als einer der Ersten unterschrieben".
Lockdowns bzw. strenge Maßnahmen und Schulschließungen werden mehr Todesfälle verursachen als eine Herdenimmunität Strategie.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Read 6 tweets
2 Oct
Lieber @Markus_Soeder,

da Sie derzeit sicherlich mit ungewöhnlich vielen Anfragen geradezu überhäuft werden, versuche ich es auf diesem Weg.

Eine Nachbarsfamilie machte kürzlich Urlaub in Sachsen und schwärmt seitdem ununterbrochen von Dresden.

Als Urbayer wurde ich stutzig,
also habe ich genauer nachgefragt:

- keine Masken für Gäste in Restaurants

- keine Masken in Schulen

Volle Wirtschaften dort während in München eine Gastro nach der anderen aufgibt.

Zefix, ich dachte natürlich zuerst:
"Ist das nicht unvernünftig"?
Wie von Ihnen diese Woche erneut bestätigt, ist offenbar alleine der 7 Tage Inzidenzwert maßgeblich.

Ein Blick in den letzten RKI Wochenbericht machte mich daraufhin allerdings nur noch mehr stutzig:

Inzidenz in Dresden niedriger als mancherorts in Bayern!
Read 11 tweets
1 Oct
"Exceptionally many vulnerable – “dry tinder” – in Sweden prior to COVID-19"

Working paper from Jones Herby
Source: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

1/x
Unusually large stock of “dry tinder” in Sweden going into the COVID-19 pandemic
2/x
The stock of “dry tinder” in Sweden in primo April 2020 was large in a historical perspective. Not since the beginning of the 1970’s has the stock been as high in Sweden.
3/x
Why was the stock larger in Sweden than in other Nordic countries? It is very clear that Sweden look a lot like the other Nordic countries until the beginning og 2019, where
Sweden starts to deviate.
Read 8 tweets
23 Sep
There are so many 99% tweets, but what does "99%" actually mean? It is believed that 99% will survive Covid.

Deep dive into death rate (= population fatality rate) from mortality.org

13 countries.

Thread
1/x
2/x
To avoid cherry-picking data and since we are in the middle of 2020 lets compare 24 month periods.

Why 24 month instead of 12 month?
1. The longer the period, the fewer any possible fluctuations.
2. Avoiding noisy data
3. Reducing temporary influences
3/x
All data: "All Cause" + population adjusted
but not age adjusted.

Sweden Image
Read 21 tweets

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