Going to post a series of articles from the 2017/18 Flu season.

First this one from the BBC, January 11 - Patients dying in corridors

“120 people are being treated in corridors; dying prematurely”
bbc.com/news/health-42…
Telegraph, January 18th

Following the news that patients were `dying` in corridors. a staggering 8.3 million people have flu symptoms in the UK.......

Question: With the NHS at capacity and an expected surge... What did you change? Did you wear a mask?

telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/1…
Nursing Times, January 19th

The most significant Flu Virus for 7 years; a breakdown of surge in NHS Services.

nursingtimes.net/news/public-he…
The Guardian, January 18th

"30,000 visit GP in the past week with FLU like symptoms. People waiting in the back of Ambulances for hours"...

Still no daily Flu Death count on the BBC? Any restrictions at funerals? Weddings?

theguardian.com/society/2018/j…
The Guardian, January 25th

"PHE said it hoped the fact that 1.5 million more people had had the flu jab this winter compared with 2016-17 would help limit the infection’s spread"

Those banking on a vaccine are literally crazy

theguardian.com/society/2018/j…
Daily Mail, 27 February

`Killer Flu Blamed as 64,000 people die in January; the highest since records began`

Context, 44,000 died in December. Meaning estimates that as many as 20,000 died in one month due to Flu. ONE MONTH

dailymail.co.uk/health/article…
FT, 18 June

"In the first quarter of 2018 there were 153,717 deaths registered in England, more than the number reported in the same period in each of the last five years. The mortality rate — 1,187 deaths per 100,000 people` = 1.187%

ft.com/content/8ec9d0…
Independent, Nov 25 (2018)

Flu season officially worst since 1975. Flu vaccine basically ineffective

`death rates doubled in males under the age of 64 compared with the year before` - Men took the brunt in 2018

independent.co.uk/news/health/fl…
December 2018, Pulse Today

50,000 Excess deaths in the 6 months from October - March

pulsetoday.co.uk/news/urgent-ca…
I`m sure we can all agree, what happened in the 2018 winter flu season was roughly what we have seen with Covid. I don't want to get into frivolous debates about which was slightly worse.
- The NHS was surged
- People dying in corridors
- Tens of thousands of excess deaths
Why were two similar situations handled so differently?

I wonder. If not the most divisive American Election Year in history. We hadn`t just left the EU with street parties. The most radical left wing Labour Leader since George Lansbury wasn`t defeated so emphatically.
Would we have reacted in the same way?

The most disappointing thing for me, something I always thought was quintessentially British, not staying calm. Making our own minds up. I never thought we could be duped into such radical societal changes - media driven
Anyway, something to consider. If you wouldn`t mind sharing. As I really think we are on a precipice. Society may never go back to what it was, the new normal becomes the normal. We urgently need some perspective

Peace✌️

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More from @EwellGregoor

16 Oct
Really important study on 'Community Immunity'.

If the Great Barrington Declaration was founded on wrong assumptions of immunity, Matt Hancock should try and explain this study:

Summary below:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Study looks at 10 low to medium income countries. Who despite having a societal measures, saw a large spike in cases. Poor hygiene; Dirty water; Cramped living all explain the 'exponential' rise in cases in March/April.....
"In all these countries, the reported cases have (1) grown exponentially, (2) reached a single clear peak and (3) declined exponentially. None of these countries has reported a significant increase in new cases after the peak that would indicate a second wave"
Read 10 tweets
15 Oct
Peer reviewed study by the WHO released 14/10/20

Update on Infection Mortality Rates (IMR)

Key Findings:

IMR all ages: 0.23%
Under 70: 0.05%

Discussion in Thread:

who.int/bulletin/onlin…
"If one could sample equally from all locations globally, the median infection fatality rate might be even
substantially lower than the 0.23% observed in my analysis"

Note that the Median IMR for countries underneath the average death rate is 0.09% (all ages)
in European countries and the US that have had high deaths, most occurred in nursing homes. Locations with many nursing home deaths may have high
estimates of the infection fatality rate, but the infection fatality rate would still be low among nonelderly, non-debilitated people
Read 6 tweets
8 Oct
The Edinburgh Study all the papers are talking about, here it is. It`s really something. An updated model using the current death and case numbers vs reduced measures

Turns out we haven't saved any lives with the lockdown... In fact, more have died.

bmj.com/content/371/bm…
That is without the additional deaths from missed cancer screenings, poverty, etc...

Appreciate again not everyone has time to read a full study. So I've noted the key bits
First on the methods, the study used CovSim to predict a range of scenarios, and combination of measures, including:
School closures
Uni closures
Case isolation - those who have symptoms stay at home
Self-Quarantine - individual decision to isolate
Lockdown
Social Distance..
Read 16 tweets
5 Oct
A review of foodbank usage in the U.K. was released last week. Went under the radar, unsurprisingly, as the numbers are disastrous

Access via link

Key findings

- 67% increase of households receiving emergency food parcels (Trussell Group)

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
- 107% increase in the number of children needing food assistance

The independent food aid network released their figures,

- Busiest month in history - May

- 177% increase in emergency food parcels distributed (past 12 months)

- 148% increase in the 3 months from Feb - May
Trussell Group Raearch in September found:

- Over half of those using foodbanks during the pandemic had never used one before

- 100k households received support for the first time in 2020

- Nearly half of foodbank users are families

trusselltrust.org/heriot-watt-re…
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
So let’s extrapolate this calculation and do Britain (Britain has a colder climate that the middle and south of The US. So colds will be more prevalent, so this will be a conservative figure)

All cause mortality Britain 2018 - 616,000 x 15% = 92,400
To conclude: if Britain tested the common cold in the same way they fear Covid. And then counted every death with a positive result in the past 30 days as a common cold death. It would be estimated that 92k people a year would die of the common cold. Perspective needed
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
People continue to tell me that the Whitty/Vallance graph was not a prediction. Ok. So it was a worst case scenario example, to justify the additional measures. But as time passes we can see that they were way out. Fantasy numbers. So surely the new measures can’t be justified?
And before anyone says there measures have meant that the cases dropped.
All we’ve heard since the measures is how we aren’t complying to will need more measures. We’ve had protests, street parties, people in the news for breaking self isolation
Not only are new cases (showing positive on a PCR test), not rising at the “exponential rate”. They’re actually decreasing week on week.
And still they talk of new measures. A stricter national lockdown.
Read 4 tweets

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