The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue. THREAD Image
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding. Image
I have never seen such a tight correlation in my career. Biology just isn’t like that. But there it is - 93%.
What does this mean? Whenever we test there will be some tests that do not work properly. For the COVID PCR test this number is low but when you are mass testing it matters. When there is a lot of COVID about we needn’t worry about a small % of false positives.
If, as now, we mass test everyone in hospital then a certain % of those test results will be false positives. The patient tests positive but does not have COVID. This has been happening since summer.
If someone is admitted with a cough, say, and the staff are worried and test them repeatedly then their chances of a false positive result can be multiplied by the number of times they were tested.
The characteristics of the people testing positive in spring were very different to those in summer. Spring 60% of deaths were in men. Summer 50/50. Spring hospital fatality rate 6%. Summer hospital fatality rate 1.7% (same as any hospital admission).
logicinthetimeofcovid.com/2020/09/07/wai…
Spring 60% of cases were over 60. Summer 11% were over 60. The increasing proportion of asymptomatic ‘cases’ is another clue. In spring there was a tight relationship between diagnosis and time to death. This was lost in summer. cebm.net/covid-19/publi…
Antibody levels have jumped around randomly but there has been no increase despite the increased number of ‘cases’. These are false positive test results and COVID misdiagnoses. Image
Random population screening (which is also full of false positives) is meant to indicate how many cases there are in the country. In July and August, with thorough testing, 30% of the cases predicted were diagnosed.
Testing has ramped up so much that for 18th-24th Sept 66% of predicted cases were diagnosed. The trend suggests in a couple of weeks we will detect more cases than the ONS predicted existed.
All of this evidence demonstrates that the COVID ‘cases’ are misdiagnoses. So what about ‘COVID’ deaths?
In July and August, for a third of patients dying with a COVID diagnosis, the doctors could not bring themselves to put that as the underlying cause of death: cebm.net/covid-19/death…
Mark Oakford has shown that 96% of the 20,000 patients dying of influenza, pneumonia and COVID had their deaths attributed to COVID.
There are no excess deaths overall currently Image
Where there are slightly higher deaths (you expect an increase over time with larger population) they are being seen in regions with low cases, not the North West or Yorkshire. Are these patients scared of going to hospital for treatment?
But we’ve been told there are COVID patients on ITU. That’s serious right?
In spring 16% of ITU patients with COVID were of black ethnicity. In Sept that figure was 7%. Other ITU data is unclear, likely because of a bias to admit COVID positive patients if obese, old, asian and male.
In spring the length of stay on ITU was 14 days for survivors and 10 days for no-survivors. By September it was 5 days for both. The mortality prediction score (APACHE II) fell from 16 in spring to 13. It is 15 for an average ITU patient.
The relationship between the data on ventilated patients in a hospital and deaths there during the spring was very close. That relationship was totally lost in summer. This is because both ITU diagnoses and death diagnoses were randomly distributed through false +ve test results Image
Image
The COVID positive hospital population are not coming in through A&E with respiratory problems. A&E attendances for acute respiratory infection are down. Image
I cannot prove there are not some genuine pockets of COVID in the country. I am just highly sceptical that overall picture shows anything like what we are being told.
Based entirely on the relationship to tests, I predict 459 deaths attributed to COVID in the week 15th-21st October in England. It is plateauing thanks to plateauing tests. There is no way this can be attributed to govt intervention recently for which you would expect a lag
COVID has not gone. It will come back as an endemic disease every winter, like flu. If we intend to manage it when it does then we need to stop the tsunami of false positive results so we can see the second winter ripple.
Given all of the above, I have become highly suspicious of the percentages of +ve tests that we have been told. COVID is a notifiable disease. Every positive test from private testing or university or school screening will be included in the case numbers.
The percentage of positive ‘cases’ should be the number of cases testing positive in Govt PCR testing divided by the number of tests Govt did. Why do I get the same percentages as published when I use all the cases, including notified cases? END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Clare Craig FRCPath

Dr Clare Craig FRCPath Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ClareCraigPath

28 Oct
Don't get tested on a Friday or Saturday. Here are the percentage of positive tests in Scotland. There's a weekly cycle.
You're twice as likely to test positive on a Friday than on a Sunday. Once a week the lab will have a thorough clean and will bring out new chemicals for testing. I think I know which day they're doing that.
This is a result of a) PCR testing being a difficult test to do with only the tiniest amount of material needed to contaminate results and b) laboratories being under huge pressure to process volumes of tests at speed. Either volume or speed must be compromised to enable quality.
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
Let's think a bit harder about why people might be dying in excess at the moment. Look what happened in spring to visits to A&E for heart attacks and angina.
Levels dropped to 60% of normal. People will have died because of that whether it was from fear or lockdowns. We are now creating fear and having lockdowns again. What is happening to deaths?
Here are excess deaths for people with heart attacks
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
The excess deaths we are currently seeing are in young people; older women; and strokes, heart attacks and diabetes. There are fewer respiratory deaths than normal for the time of year. COVID killed old men and is a respiratory disease. This is not COVID.
Read 5 tweets
25 Oct
Liverpool University Trust has had the most COVID deaths since September of any NHS trust. From 01/09/20 until 25/10/20 there have been 140 'COVID' deaths. This is 27% of all the COVID deaths since March. No excess mortality.
Here are some hypotheses:
a) these are not COVID deaths but misdiagnoses
b) COVID is killing people who would have died otherwise and beating influenza to it. The new 'old man's friend' that was influenza.
c) People are dying with COVID not of COVID

I think it's a.
Read 6 tweets
22 Oct
In spring, the death rate per week was double normal for the over 55s. What is happening now?
Recent COVID deaths appear to have risen since week 36.
It is worth comparing this pattern to the pattern of % positive tests. The rise in positive tests starts in week 36. There has been no lag between this rise in positive tests and resulting rise in % of COVID deaths as proportion of mean 2015-2019 deaths.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
COVID killed middle aged people in spring. It is not doing that anymore. I have scaled total deaths (by 20) to compare. Thanks to @RuminatorDan for inspiration.
Same chart not scaled.
Same for older people over all time and recently
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!