Really important study on 'Community Immunity'.

If the Great Barrington Declaration was founded on wrong assumptions of immunity, Matt Hancock should try and explain this study:

Summary below:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Study looks at 10 low to medium income countries. Who despite having a societal measures, saw a large spike in cases. Poor hygiene; Dirty water; Cramped living all explain the 'exponential' rise in cases in March/April.....
"In all these countries, the reported cases have (1) grown exponentially, (2) reached a single clear peak and (3) declined exponentially. None of these countries has reported a significant increase in new cases after the peak that would indicate a second wave"
Herd Immunity was confirmed by Antibody testing in Kenya, Pakistan and South Africa. In Kenya, positive antibody tests outweigh positive cases by a factor of 3800. A factor of 540 in Pakistan and up to 65 in South Africa.
"In all these countries, the analysis indicates that significant percentages of their populations have been
infected and have become immune – at least temporarily."

"For Bolivia, Colombia and South Africa, the IFRs calculated from reported deaths are 0.15%, 0.10% and 0.04%"
And here is the golden news:

"With this check, we increase our confidence in the
hypothesis that the outbreaks in the 10 LMICs studied are declining due to herd immunity, which
generates well-fitting curves with plausible parameters"
"New strains of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged, and it is conceivable that future mutations could allow the virus to evade immune systems, and thus render previously immune
populations susceptible again to the disease – but there is no evidence yet of any such immunity evading strains"
My summary: Study shows

Keeping the R rate under 1 is not advisable if we want to return to normal. This is a suppression tactic, waiting on a virus that may never come.

Herd immunity is not a myth. And it is a lot lower than SAGE say. London has already reached it
Managing the R rate to keep the virus spreading whilst protecting the elderly and keeping an eye on NHS capacity is the way return to normal. Is how we protect the elderly. Is how we get the economy up and running ASAP.

END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ewell Gregoor

Ewell Gregoor Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @EwellGregoor

16 Oct
Going to post a series of articles from the 2017/18 Flu season.

First this one from the BBC, January 11 - Patients dying in corridors

“120 people are being treated in corridors; dying prematurely”
bbc.com/news/health-42…
Telegraph, January 18th

Following the news that patients were `dying` in corridors. a staggering 8.3 million people have flu symptoms in the UK.......

Question: With the NHS at capacity and an expected surge... What did you change? Did you wear a mask?

telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/1…
Nursing Times, January 19th

The most significant Flu Virus for 7 years; a breakdown of surge in NHS Services.

nursingtimes.net/news/public-he…
Read 14 tweets
15 Oct
Peer reviewed study by the WHO released 14/10/20

Update on Infection Mortality Rates (IMR)

Key Findings:

IMR all ages: 0.23%
Under 70: 0.05%

Discussion in Thread:

who.int/bulletin/onlin…
"If one could sample equally from all locations globally, the median infection fatality rate might be even
substantially lower than the 0.23% observed in my analysis"

Note that the Median IMR for countries underneath the average death rate is 0.09% (all ages)
in European countries and the US that have had high deaths, most occurred in nursing homes. Locations with many nursing home deaths may have high
estimates of the infection fatality rate, but the infection fatality rate would still be low among nonelderly, non-debilitated people
Read 6 tweets
8 Oct
The Edinburgh Study all the papers are talking about, here it is. It`s really something. An updated model using the current death and case numbers vs reduced measures

Turns out we haven't saved any lives with the lockdown... In fact, more have died.

bmj.com/content/371/bm…
That is without the additional deaths from missed cancer screenings, poverty, etc...

Appreciate again not everyone has time to read a full study. So I've noted the key bits
First on the methods, the study used CovSim to predict a range of scenarios, and combination of measures, including:
School closures
Uni closures
Case isolation - those who have symptoms stay at home
Self-Quarantine - individual decision to isolate
Lockdown
Social Distance..
Read 16 tweets
5 Oct
A review of foodbank usage in the U.K. was released last week. Went under the radar, unsurprisingly, as the numbers are disastrous

Access via link

Key findings

- 67% increase of households receiving emergency food parcels (Trussell Group)

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
- 107% increase in the number of children needing food assistance

The independent food aid network released their figures,

- Busiest month in history - May

- 177% increase in emergency food parcels distributed (past 12 months)

- 148% increase in the 3 months from Feb - May
Trussell Group Raearch in September found:

- Over half of those using foodbanks during the pandemic had never used one before

- 100k households received support for the first time in 2020

- Nearly half of foodbank users are families

trusselltrust.org/heriot-watt-re…
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
So let’s extrapolate this calculation and do Britain (Britain has a colder climate that the middle and south of The US. So colds will be more prevalent, so this will be a conservative figure)

All cause mortality Britain 2018 - 616,000 x 15% = 92,400
To conclude: if Britain tested the common cold in the same way they fear Covid. And then counted every death with a positive result in the past 30 days as a common cold death. It would be estimated that 92k people a year would die of the common cold. Perspective needed
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
People continue to tell me that the Whitty/Vallance graph was not a prediction. Ok. So it was a worst case scenario example, to justify the additional measures. But as time passes we can see that they were way out. Fantasy numbers. So surely the new measures can’t be justified?
And before anyone says there measures have meant that the cases dropped.
All we’ve heard since the measures is how we aren’t complying to will need more measures. We’ve had protests, street parties, people in the news for breaking self isolation
Not only are new cases (showing positive on a PCR test), not rising at the “exponential rate”. They’re actually decreasing week on week.
And still they talk of new measures. A stricter national lockdown.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!